Israeli provocation on Lebanese border could trigger new war

If you look at the picture you can clearly see an Israeli soldier hanging from a crane on the Lebanese side of the border. The Israelis asked for permission to cross the border which the Lebanese army denied. Israel proceeded to ignore that deneil and violated UN Res 1701 and entered soverignLebanese territory. IF it had been the Lebanese asking to do the same thing on the Israeli side of the border an the Lebanese proceeded in defiance of permission the outcome would have been the same with The Israeli army firing on the Lebanese.

And Israel calls it a provocation caused by the Lebanese!




warincontext.org...

I just wonder if the picture in the article was taken from the recent conflict or if it is just a picture used to bolster the articles entertainment value.

Also, comments like these really grind my gears. . .

It has publicly warned that it would destroy Lebanese civilian infrastructure

[edit on 4-8-2010 by born2BWild]

maybe he has lost his ball over the fence and he is just trying to get it back
lol
should not laugh realy this is pretty serious its like isriel is trying to start something

Well, here's my take.

Back in February I saw an article on the Debka File that described a plan and the preparations for Hezbollah to invade northern Israel in the event Israel attacked Iran. It's a three pronged attack that's rather bold but doable especially in light of special training about 5,000 Hezbollah fighters received in Iran.

The IDF isn't all that much these days. TPTB know that if they have to call up the reserves about half won't show up. When the half that do show up figure out that the others are home watching TV they won't do to much to endanger themselves. Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army aren't defenseless women and children so it won't be like going to Gaza to terrorize civilians.

Logistically speaking, the highway system the IDF would have to move personnel and armor on doesn't lend itself to defense of an invasion. A lot of the armor would have to be trucked to the north. Once there they would have to be resupplied using the same roads.

The IDF has a superior Air Force that it has depended on for decades to offset the weaknesses of its Army. If invaded from the north and it's a lightning strike, as it's planned, Hezbollah would be in such close proximity to Israeli civilians the air superiority card would be trumped. That would mean a ground offensive that could get very ugly.

The smartest thing the IDF could do is to try and provoke a clash with the Lebanese to pull Hezbollah into the fray and then use that as justification to pound hell out of southern Lebanon with air power and artillery. The hope being to neutralize the invasion threat prior to a strike at Iran.

The problem for the IDF is that Hezbollah won't take the bait. That Israeli dangling over the fence was exactly that- bait. That idiot in the basket would have been an easy shot for even a bad sniper but that would have given the Israelis the pretext they needed to escalate their response and try to give Hezbollah no option other than to fight.

I expect Israel to wait to see the results of the November elections before they move on Iran hoping to see a large number of Republican war hawks take seats in Congress. Either way election wise I'd expect they'd light up southern Lebanon at the same time they strike Iran though I'd suspect they'd rather deal with Hezbollah first.

If you want a barometer for when the Israelis intend to hit Iran keep your eyes on the border with Lebanon and likewise the DMZ in Korea. If you see a beefed up Israeli presence on the Lebanese border and the US go to some kind of heightened state of alert in Korea expect the dance to start very soon. Then you may want to pray that Russia and China decide to sit it out and let Iran get clobbered. Otherwise...

reply to post by CmdrZero


Excellant analysis!!

Was the intention of your imaginary 'incursion' on Lebanese territory hostile, or was it to clear vegetation?

Because from my point of view, the only justifiable reason to kill another human being - Jew, Arab or whatever - is if that person tried to take my or any other person's life.

And why wasn't that Israeli soldier who - according to you - dangled a few centimeters into Lebanese airspace (although that needs to be established by people more credible than you, and so far it's not established if that tree was actually on Lebanese or Israeli territory) with the malicious intent to cut Lebanese leaves, shot?

I remind you that it was an Israeli soldier a 100 meters into Israeli territory that was shot by a sniper, not the perpetrator.

But perhaps that was a collective punishment for cutting Lebanese leaves?

Or simply because he was Israeli, or Jew, because with you guys it's always payback time for Jews, right?

Originally posted by Heliocentric

I remind you that it was an Israeli soldier a 100 meters into Israeli territory that was shot by a sniper, not the perpetrator.

But perhaps that was a collective punishment for cutting Lebanese leaves?

Or simply because he was Israeli, or Jew, because with you guys it's always payback time for Jews, right?

That's actually a very, very good point.

I don't want to take sides but UNIFIL have said the incident took place in Israeli territory, not lebanese.

Admittedly UNIFIL could be wrong but at the moment that is all we have to go with.