Iran sets major exercise; Ahmadinejad sees war by November

This is starting to get the feel of a bar room scene in a clint eastwood movie...theres some drunk korean at the end of the bar. some loud mouth iranian hustling pool..
and some venezuelian guy throwing darts..
unfortunately its not a movie and i think we'll all be trying to ducking radiation
as this brawl gets going..lotsa luck.

There is not going to be a war. Learn how to read the facts boy's and girls.

How many time have you people been wrong about this, these last 8 to 10 years? Every time. Right!

I am happy he gave a date.

In three months we can formally discredit this guy and brush aside his rhetoric.

Originally posted by bruxfinn
ha!

Ahmadinejad thinks he will see the war.

LMFAO ... if war comes to Iran ... sight won't be his most used sense.

It will be touch and sound and taste and smell

He will feel the Earth shaking and trembling beneath him.
He will hear the endless bombs raining down upon his nation.
He will taste the bitter gall of death and his food will be ashes and crow.
He will smell urine and feces as he and his brethren lose control of their bowels.

Ooooh, scary macho & violent mental masturbation. What if they have an old soviet nuke near you.. you'll be sniff'n your BBQ'd dead familys feces while sporting a fresh radioactive coat of blisters. Some souless cretin in Iran all ginned up on nationalism will be rubbing one out with glee and banging away his approval on a message board...

Sounds delicious... TPTB & mullahs love it when their slaves obey propaganda and buy into nationalism..

Ah yes, nationalism... a reason to hate people you never met and take pride in things you had nothing to do with.. while worshiping a patch of colored cloth on a stick with the zeal of prophet mohammeds flock (yawn).

Whatever happens I hope Iran humiliates TPTB and some blow-ba, er... pay-back, bursts upon the elites heads like the exploding bowels of a camel with screaming diarrhea.

not that i believe in timewave zero, but look what happens to it in November 2010.

2010 - timewave zero

Originally posted by spy66
There is not going to be a war. Learn how to read the facts boy's and girls.

How many time have you people been wrong about this, these last 8 to 10 years? Every time. Right!

actually it is the first time the president of iran, ahmedinajd gave a specific date to a war event. and i believe him more than the bible or some nostardamus prophecy.

you have to understand that israel said it will not allow iran to continue its nuclear program into 2011. and iran said it will retaliate if attacked. that means war. and all the elites want war, the system is collapsing and they need something to happen.

Ahmadinejad is just puffing for his people at home.

His mighty air force has the latest airplanes from Iraqi military surplus. Remember when those pesky Iraqis flew their state of the art combat planes into Iran for protection.

How'd that work out Saddam, oh yeah, your dead; and the airplanes are still in Iran...

I saw only one poster, MrSpad, mention the most important aspect to this exercise. All these planes are obsolete, or just so old that they are functionally obsolete. All are from the 60's to 80's and parts hard to impossible to find unless you cannibalize other aircraft.

Originally posted by Sky watcher
These clowns are going to get a beat down very soon they will never forget thanks to their ignorant taunting of superior military powers.

You sound like you are talking about the US...but you aren't...

webbot and baba vanga predict a war in that region by november

Webbot is wrong a LOT. I dont buy that a computer can "predict" real worlkd events and im definitely not buying it in this case. War with Iran has been immenent for years LOL. Nothing different now.

Originally posted by DutchBigBoy
webbot and baba vanga predict a war in that region by november

Forgive me if I seem to harp on this but it seems obvious to me that Carrier Groups in a relatively confined area (ie: Persian Gulf) immediately take on a large liability of reduced (over-horizon stand-off) defensive buffer zone, which is a primary advantage of a networked, anti-ship missile defense.

What they get in trade for this is proximity to a long coastline in which legions of anti-ship fixed and mobile missile batteries (sp?) can be located and concealed and fired readily.

Defender attacks in swarm fashion with small boats being part of the equation, domestic air force being also part of the equation. AND THE COASTAL DEFENSE BATTERY(IES) BEING THE MAJOR ANTI-SHIP THREAT... the AMERICAN NAVY ATTACK GROUP SHIPS are then FLOATING TARGETS in a large lake with max depth to bottom of 90m and an average depth of 50m. The draught of a Nimitz-class carrier is about 30m...

plus mines and torpedo mines become a problem for the invader, you would think

Using a combination of these assets, Iran can fire multiple missiles in multiple salvos against a battle group. USN has handicapped their own-selves with an automatic reduction of anti-missile response time due to their proximity to shore line missile launch sites.

Even the addition of the NULKA antimissile countermeasure / lure (which is incredibly clever) there are not likely more than 10 of these per ship (based on total production 1000 divided amongst the 130 ships claimed to be fitted with it)

IF I AM PLAYING OPPOSING FORCES I will start by using my cheapest missiles first. I fire simultaneous salvos from multiple directions and then escalate or pepper the mix with increasingly sophisticated and speedy anti-ship missiles. I WILL SINK SOME OF YOUR HIGHEST VALUE TARGETS PEOPLE.

this reality is unavoidable. I will have a proxy state/ ally launch some devistation against Israel also.

Looks to me like a costly attack. and please remind me what the American civilian stands to gain from this?


[edit on 1-8-2010 by AntiShyster]

[edit on 1-8-2010 by AntiShyster]

[edit on 1-8-2010 by AntiShyster]

[edit on 1-8-2010 by AntiShyster]

[edit on 1-8-2010 by AntiShyster]

Originally posted by GovtFlu

Originally posted by bruxfinn
ha!

Ahmadinejad thinks he will see the war.

LMFAO ... if war comes to Iran ... sight won't be his most used sense.

It will be touch and sound and taste and smell

He will feel the Earth shaking and trembling beneath him.
He will hear the endless bombs raining down upon his nation.
He will taste the bitter gall of death and his food will be ashes and crow.
He will smell urine and feces as he and his brethren lose control of their bowels.

Ooooh, scary macho & violent mental masturbation. What if they have an old soviet nuke near you.. you'll be sniff'n your BBQ'd dead familys feces while sporting a fresh radioactive coat of blisters. Some souless cretin in Iran all ginned up on nationalism will be rubbing one out with glee and banging away his approval on a message board...

Sounds delicious... TPTB & mullahs love it when their slaves obey propaganda and buy into nationalism..

Ah yes, nationalism... a reason to hate people you never met and take pride in things you had nothing to do with.. while worshiping a patch of colored cloth on a stick with the zeal of prophet mohammeds flock (yawn).

Whatever happens I hope Iran humiliates TPTB and some blow-ba, er... pay-back, bursts upon the elites heads like the exploding bowels of a camel with screaming diarrhea.

Look here... I was the first person to begin to describe responses on conspiracy forums as masturbation ... can't you people think for yourself?

Anyway ... everyone already knows what's up with the Iranians ... can't we all just participate ... We all know its far more important to keep Reza Pahlavi locked up over here than creating a situation where he can return to Iran.

And the Iranians have failed in every possible way ... We couldn't lose this if we tried to.

reply to post by AntiShyster


In this imagined conflict how do you plan on finding any US ships to even try and target? Your command and controll will be gone, your air defenses will be gone, anything that flys will be gone. Its not like the US Navy is going line up and sale up and down the Persian Gulf waiting to be attacked. To make matters worse the Americans have everything that floats being tracked. Your guys with the missles will never have a target. The only real option is to take whatever portable missles you can and fire them at large targets like cities and bases in Gulf States, Iraq and Afganistan. Maybe Turkey if you can reach it. Hope one gets lucky and high civilian casualties brings the US to the barganing table quicker. Of course on the off chance Iran were to be bombed other than trying to shoot down the planes they most likey will not even make a play to escalate the conflict. Most likely after the US has hit what targets it wanted to Iran will claim to have shot down several US aircraft and to have driven off an invasion. You do not have to win to claim victory.

reply to post by MrSpad


I will admit to not being an expert. I rely on:

A-General analysis which have been written on how other countries counter the Carrier Based projection of power. A la Russia, China and anyone following atempting to follow thier strategic example.

B- Specifically the wargames already played in 2002 within this exact theater regarding this scenario.

The USMC General who played the RED TEAM in 2002 utilized unconventional means for command and control.

It is not theory. it has already played out in simulations for whatever that is worth

Please feel free to critique the report: wargames 2002

I will say(not a prediction, just a solid guess) that nothing comes from this
mr.dinnerjacket will do nothing.
I am seeing a trend by the TPTB to create the attempt of fear.
I say No.

reply to post by AntiShyster


I am very familiar with both wargames and military exercises in South West Asia. I know the region from both a ground level and much more strategic level. As I said before wargames are not meant to predict the out come of a conflict, they are used to put US military leaders in various situations. You do not win and everything that can go wrong does. You want to send your people back humbled and then teach them what they can do to be prepared for anything. Then you send them back out to do it again. For example the US knows Iran has used civilian craft in the past to drop mines etc. This is the sort of thing they would be watching for. However in a wargame all your intel assets fail to alert you to any of this. You also have restrictions placed on you, like you can not take any action until the enemy has attacked or your flag ship has engine failer etc. This keeps your leaders from being over confident. As I said before you always lose in wargames. Invasion of Iraq wargames normally had the US taking staggering losses. Now their are people who spend their days running legit simulations to predit the outcome of conflicts but, that is another story. Irans options are very limited if the US decided to hit its nuke facilities. They can not stop it from happening and any attempt at retaliation will lead to an escalation they can not win.

reply to post by MrSpad


Hello again. MrSpad

I am glad you're familiar with all of this... If the war games are fought and utilized in such a way as to provide an honest, real-world assessment then they can be of value, IMO.

If one side is allowed to say 'reset' when they want then how useful is the feedback?

And it does not address the elephant in the room which is the loss of multilayer defense scheme and with it, much anti-ship missile reaction time. So the center of the Carrier group has fewer chances and less defense buffering than afforded in the open ocean.

Also you are not wishing to address the advances in anti-ship missiles in the past 15 yrs which make this stand-off /redundant defenses all the more important.

What has me concerned is the part where the red team SINKS 16 US Warships in the first few days and then the guys running the deal re-float them and go on to claim 'mission accomplished' in 15 days.

Is that a capability they are going to be allowed in real life? I understand the Japanese did that one as well, once upon a time.


Can you expand on the ethics or utility of this "reset-if-we-need-to" attitude please?


[edit on 1-8-2010 by AntiShyster]

Originally posted by AntiShyster
reply to post by MrSpad

 

Hello again. MrSpad

I am glad you're familiar with all of this... If the war games are fought and utilized in such a way as to provide an honest, real-world assessment then they can be of value, IMO.

If one side is allowed to say 'reset' when they want then how useful is the feedback?

And it does not address the elephant in the room which is the loss of multilayer defense scheme and with it, much anti-ship missile reaction time. So the center of the Carrier group has fewer chances and less defense buffering than afforded in the open ocean.

Also you are not wishing to address the advances in anti-ship missiles in the past 15 yrs which make this stand-off /redundant defenses all the more important.

What has me concerned is the part where the red team SINKS 16 US Warships in the first few days and then the guys running the deal re-float them and go on to claim 'mission accomplished' in 15 days.

Is that a capability they are going to be allowed in real life? I understand the Japanese did that one as well, once upon a time.


Can you expand on the ethics or utility of this "reset-if-we-need-to" attitude please?


[edit on 1-8-2010 by AntiShyster]

As I said you tend to wipe out or seriously hurt wreck forces early in an excercise by putting them in a bad situation, giving the OPFOR some cheats, and then handicapping the forces you are training. Its a nice little lesson. Of course ending things like that is a waste of an excersise so ships are refloted and the dead brought back for further phases of the excersise. Sometimes if things are going to well you will hit them with suprises again to keep them on there toes. I will not go into any actual tactics etc. but I think you should keep this in mind. The US knows what Irans capabilities are. Its not like a conflict with Iran is not something the US has not studied for many many years. The US has not just been sitting on it hands without changing tech and tactics. On the opposite end Iran does not know what the US is capable of. The have ideas but have never faced anything like it. They do not have the ability or the resources to even train for a conflict with the US. They can just do the best they can and hope the US is unprepared. The occupations in Iraq and Afganistan have a brough a huge focus on asymmetrical warfare among the US military over the last 7 years. I think its safe for you to assume they might take such things into consideration in the Gulf.

[edit on 2-8-2010 by MrSpad]

I havent heard much ab out this big exercise that supposedly started several days ago. Even home grown PRESSTV isnt reporting anything on it. More posturing and bluffing i guess.

Originally posted by MrSpad:
you said:
"As I said you tend to wipe out or seriously hurt wreck forces early in an excercise by putting them in a bad situation, giving the OPFOR some cheats, and then handicapping the forces you are training. Its a nice little lesson. Of course ending things like that is a waste of an excersise so ships are refloted and the dead brought back for further phases of the excersise. "

sorry i did the quote wrong...
(my response follows)


I think that must be why Lt Gen Van Riper was so disgusted with the exercise when they reset by refloating those ships he righteously killed.... because, he did not understand business-as-usual in wargames conducted for the Navy's benefit, right?

I think my BS detector is going off here...


[edit on 2-8-2010 by AntiShyster]