The political genius of supply-side economics
The future of fiscal policy was intensely debated in the FT last week. In this Exchange, I want to examine what is going on in the US and, in
particular, what is going on inside the Republican party. This matters for the US and, because the US remains the world’s most important economy, it
also matters greatly for the world.
My reading of contemporary Republican thinking is that there is no chance of any attempt to arrest adverse long-term fiscal trends should they return
to power. Moreover, since the Republicans have no interest in doing anything sensible, the Democrats will gain nothing from trying to do much either.
That is the lesson Democrats have to draw from the Clinton era’s successful frugality, which merely gave George W. Bush the opportunity to make
massive (irresponsible and unsustainable) tax cuts. In practice, then, nothing will be done.
blogs.ft.com...
What does all this rhetoric have to do with supply side economics? Martin Wolf, the British "financial journalist" links supply side economics to
partisan politics in this way:
To understand modern Republican thinking on fiscal policy, we need to go back to perhaps the most politically brilliant (albeit economically
unconvincing) idea in the history of fiscal policy: “supply-side economics”. Supply-side economics liberated conservatives from any need to insist
on fiscal rectitude and balanced budgets. Supply-side economics said that one could cut taxes and balance budgets, because incentive effects would
generate new activity and so higher revenue.
Perhaps Wolf gets his understanding of supply side economics from
Wikipedia:
Supply-side economics is a school of macroeconomic thought that argues that economic growth can be most effectively created by lowering barriers
for people to produce (supply) goods and services, such as adjusting income tax and capital gains tax rates, and by allowing greater flexibility by
reducing regulation. Consumers will then benefit from a greater supply of goods and services at lower prices.
Of course, this beginning paragraph in the Wikipedia article is the standard view of what supply side economics is, which translates to most as tax
cuts. However, when reading further in that Wikipedia article, under the Historical Origins of supply side economics we get a different picture:
Supply-side economics developed during the 1970s in response to the failure of Keynesian economic policy, and in particular the failure of demand
management to stabilize Western economies during the stagflation of the 1970s, in the wake of the oil crisis in 1973. It drew on a range of
non-Keynesian economic thought, particularly Austrian school thinking on entrepreneurship and new classical macroeconomics. The intellectual roots of
supply-side economics have also been traced back to various early economic thinkers such as Ibn Khaldun, Jonathan Swift, David Hume, Adam Smith and
Alexander Hamilton.
As in classical economics, supply-side economics proposed that production or supply is the key to economic prosperity and that consumption or
demand is merely a secondary consequence. Early on this idea had been summarized in Say's Law of economics, which states: "A product is no
sooner created, than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value." John Maynard Keynes, the
founder of Keynesianism, summarized Say's Law as "supply creates its own demand." He turned Say's Law on its head in the 1930s by
declaring that demand creates its own supply. However, Say's Law does not state that production creates a demand for the product itself, but rather
a demand for "other products to the full extent of its own value." A better formulation of the law is that the supply of one good constitutes demand
for one or more other goods. This requires that the original good has some value to another party and it is through willingness to trade this value
that the producer of the new good can express his demand for another good.
Supply creates its own demand
Two examples of supply side economics would be Pet Rocks, a marketing ploy conceived by an advertising executive who found a ready supply of rocks,
painted faces on these rocks, and sold them to the public, thereby creating its own demand. Of course, the Pet Rock was just a fad that soon ran its
course. It is however a simple and easy to understand example of actual supply side economics that has absolutely nothing to to with tax cuts.
The second example of supply side economics is The FOX Network. When Rupert Murdoch first founded The FOX Network, most people, (really meaning the
talking heads of the three networks, outside of PBS, all ready in existence), declared The FOX Network a loser before it even had a chance to lose.
In the beginning, FOX did struggle with creating a demand and most viewers did not readily turn to FOX for entertainment, which in some ways seemed to
vindicate all the prognosticators who assured the public that just wasn't a demand for a fourth network. Never mind that there was all ready a
fourth network in PBS, that network didn't count because it didn't have to worry about profitability. The prognosticators were insisting there was
not enough of a profit share for a fourth network.
Murdoch, however, kept supplying his network with programming. At some point, the NFL decided to raise its licensing fees on the games being aired,
and at that time, CBS pretty much had the monopoly on NFL games. Larry Tisch, then president of CBS, crunched the numbers and concluded that they
were barely paying for the NFL through advertising revenue as it was, and could not afford to pay the increase in licensing fees, so let their
contract with the NFL go. Murdoch jumped on this decision, and paid the fee the NFL was asking for. Of course, if CBS couldn't generate enough in
advertising, what made Murdoch think he could with his floundering network?
"supply creates its own demand."
Murdoch had two shows all ready airing on Sundays, that he believed were quality shows that deserved a bigger audience than they were getting. He
gambled that if he added to that Sunday lineup an afternoon of NFL football games, that he would gain a new audience that just might stick around
after the games to watch those shows they weren't watching. Those two shows were The Simpson's and The X-Files. Murdoch's gambit paid off, and
the audience of those two shows increased dramatically. This is supply side economics in action. Again, Murdoch's decision had nothing to do with
tax cuts, or Republican Party platforms, it was a simple business decision that paid off.
Of course, the main stream media will rarely, if ever, report these successes of supply side economics in the business sector, and continue to link
supply side economics with government fiscal policies, and when they do, they will grossly misrepresent what supply side economics truly is, in order
to push forth their own agenda, which is a longing to return to a more Keynesian form of fiscal policy.
If financial journalists, or journalists in general were truly interested in demonstrating how supply side economics works in government, they would
do more, as the Washington Post has recently done, to show how the creation of Homeland Security, (an increase in government supply), has created a
demand for more terrorists. Hence, since the formulation of Homeland Security, we hear much more about "homegrown terrorists", more airport
security, and how the internet must be better regulated. That is the supply and demand of government, the bigger the supply of government, the bigger
demand there is for taxes, prisons, and overall regulation.
[edit on 26-7-2010 by Jean Paul Zodeaux]