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ECRI Leading Indicators Continue Stomach Churning Plunge

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posted on Jul, 24 2010 @ 10:40 PM
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www.businessinsider.com...

"The ECRI leading indicators number continues to sink and sink, registering a level of -10.5%."



===

Never, in the history of this indicator, has it dropped below -10 and a recession has not already been in place.




posted on Jul, 24 2010 @ 10:45 PM
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reply to post by leo123
 


looking at your chart it seems that we have seen this range and below in 2009 and 2010 and many would say we are not in a recession.



posted on Jul, 24 2010 @ 11:20 PM
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Originally posted by whoshotJR
reply to post by leo123
 


looking at your chart it seems that we have seen this range and below in 2009 and 2010 and many would say we are not in a recession.



Hi whoshotJR

Please note that the last time it hit -10 on a descending basis was in early 2008.

J



posted on Jul, 24 2010 @ 11:29 PM
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reply to post by leo123
 


I just don't know if this is a real indicator along with almost all previous ones looked at because never before has government manipulated the media and the markets this much.

I would agree that the future doesn't look bright for our economy.



posted on Jul, 25 2010 @ 02:15 AM
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S&F for the OP.

There will be many who say that leading indicators are not. Take a look at who the founders of ECRI are, and it gains credibility. ECRI was founded by Alan Greenspan and Geoffrey Moore, the creator of the original leading indicators

Here's an article from seekingalpha on why ECRI is a good indicator, and acknowledges those who don't believe it is:
seekingalpha.com...


I feel no regret in missing some of the recent market upside. I'm all cash, since I'm in the camp that senses deflation coming. It came for housing and autos so far, the two biggest consumer loan sources.

I have a related thread here: www.abovetopsecret.com...


[edit on 25-7-2010 by Dbriefed]



posted on Jul, 25 2010 @ 04:04 AM
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reply to post by Dbriefed
 




I feel no regret in missing some of the recent market upside. I'm all cash, since I'm in the camp that senses deflation coming. It came for housing and autos so far, the two biggest consumer loan sources.


Why would they allow deflation when they can print as fast as they like which devalues the currency and takes money from your pocket and put it in their pockets.

The theroy goes that money can be destroyed faster than it can be created but looking back in history 99% of all recessions have been inflationary.

i've moved on from cash because the banksters don't need my saving else they would be offering more then 0.5% interest just to maintain an ilusion that money grows so i've gone for physical metals which means i stand still if we get deflation and gain if we get hyper inflation.

knock metals all you like but banks still need to keep a supply and if the link between the paper gold and physical gold that standsw at something like 100:1 ever becomes unstuck then those holing physical metals will see the price go to the moon.



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