Stalking the UFOs

reply to post by Kandinsky


Wow. Thank you for an excellent study. The data has be elegantly presented and it is very clear that there is some depth to the phenomenon. I believe that all high school kids interested in going to university should read it for the clarity and overall treatment of a topic that has always been below the level of what sceptics would call "real science".

reply to post by Kandinsky


Wonderful thread. Now I remember why I came to ATS in the first place.

I don't know whether to be proud or embarrassed that there's a "hotsopt" near me...

Considering local customs, there could be a more terrestrial explanation for that. :w:




TheAssoc.

[edit on 25-7-2010 by TheAssociate]

reply to post by Arbitrageur
Hiya Arbitrageur, glad you liked the thread. I agree with your points and alluded to similar thoughts in the OP. I was hoping to leave room for discussion instead of 'talking to myself.'

Statistics can be tricky to analyze. One of my favorites is that you are most likely to get into an automobile accident within 25 miles of your home.

As ever, the stats can be open to interpretation...hence their popularity in marketing. There's inevitably going to be a factor of summer months and later nights involved in the data. I still don't think the figures should be dismissed as quickly as others have. If the 9-11pm peaks are due to more people being out at night, where is the respective peak between 4-6pm when schools empty and people leave work?

For that matter, as some are focused on the fact that it's dark, where are the morning rush hour peaks? In early Autumn, it can still be getting dark.

In the several papers and analyses I've read, there remains a pattern. That pattern is diffused or distorted by the quality of the data. If there's a true signal in there, we need a database that is less noisy. I guess I'm just asking the question of whether improved data can narrow down the search for the answers to the UFO phenomenon.

Originally posted by Kandinsky
If the 9-11pm peaks are due to more people being out at night, where is the respective peak between 4-6pm when schools empty and people leave work?

For that matter, as some are focused on the fact that it's dark, where are the morning rush hour peaks? In early Autumn, it can still be getting dark.

One would hope their eyes and minds are on the road.

Originally posted by Kandinsky
I guess I'm just asking the question of whether improved data can narrow down the search for the answers to the UFO phenomenon.

I think it could. But one would have to start afresh; there are some forty-thousand cases in the 2000 - 2009 data, far too many to retroactively investigate. Start compiling data from a contemporaneous reports investigated and determined to be true unknowns, then see if the same pattern exists.

reply to post by DoomsdayRex

One would hope their eyes and minds are on the road.

Hopefully. The point is that people are over-simplifying and trying to attribute the peaks to one explanation. The one explanation isn't supported by the absence of peaks at other times when many people are outside. Furthermore, the simplistic explanation implies that more people are outside around the eleventh hour than any period up to 9am or after 5pm. How have they formed that conclusion?

I think it could. But one would have to start afresh; there are some forty-thousand cases in the 2000 - 2009 data, far too many to retroactively investigate. Start compiling data from a contemporaneous reports investigated and determined to be true unknowns, then see if the same pattern exists.

This is an ideal. There are around 4000 reports per year on NUFORC alone. Factor in MUFON and the others and there might be up to 20 000 reported sightings per year. That level of reporting activity makes individual investigation improbable...

It's more plausible to adapt a similar approach to Vallee and weed out the single events with multiple reports. At least it will filter out some of the noise.

Good thread. That's how ATS should be. Unfortunately we have "wake up call" threads or useless threads.

[edit on 25-7-2010 by ickylevel]

Hey, very nice job on putting together this thread, S&F!

As far as the statistics of UFO sightings, it may not be the actual UFOs (if they even exist) exhibiting these patterns, rather it may be the humans who are viewing them.

For instance, 11pm may just be the time when most people happen to look up. At 4am, most people are in bed and at 2pm, the sun prevents people from seeing too much of the sky. It would make perfect sense that most UFO sightings are around 11pm.

As far as the times of year, it appears that most sightings are in the summer, which also makes since, seeing how it is much warmer and therefore people are spending more time outside.

These statistics could display human behavior, as apposed to UFO behavior.

--airspoon

More dark time, more ufo sightings? Morning time people are sleeping and they dont watch the sky. New York dark time (=gray area):

(source: gaisma.com)

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c25eb10438fc.jpg[/atsimg]

Here is chart. 12= dark time all year etc..

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d3442f00d322.jpg[/atsimg]

Comparison:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6d408dce1fd1.jpg[/atsimg]

More people, more airports, more dark time = more ufosightings

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c3463e2bb49a.jpg[/atsimg]






[edit on 25-7-2010 by hande]

[edit on 25-7-2010 by hande]

reply to post by airspoon

These statistics could display human behaviour, as opposed to UFO behaviour.

I completely agree. At the same time the human behaviour is a response to a UFO sighting. In that sense the two behaviours would be inextricably linked.

It's the reason I described it all as 'dense fogs of Ufology and the seemingly unlockable door that prevents us knowing actual answers.'

Seems a bit melodramatic looking at it here. Crap metaphors lol.

The point being that whenever there's an opportunity to unravel a bit of the mystery...it gets more tangled up. In this case, we're confounded by interpretation of stats.

reply to post by hande
Very interesting post

There's undoubtedly a correlation to light and darkness, but is it the entire correlation? Your second and third graphs are very, very loosely comparable. The first is significantly asymmetric.

The hours of daylight versus have an impact on reports. I noticed whilst counting the reports on shapes of craft...that, of the 60 000, 12 000 are defined as 'lights.' It's reasonable to assume 'light' UFOs are very clear at night and largely invisible in daytime. It would have a large impact on the distribution of reports if we removed those cases.

reply to post by Kandinsky


It's hard to comment on these findings other than there seems to be a genuine pattern.

I still need to read more of the info that you have provided for us.


Thank you so much S+F,

Great thread Kandinsky, applause!

Let's deal with this phenomenon in a rational, investigative way

60 years of UFO research has shown us that this phenomenon is - beyond reasonable doubt - real, we should have passed the "IS there something strange going on?" stage by now, and be well into the "WHAT is it and how does it work?" stage.

So, more of these type of threads please!

Weearghh!!!

Lots of numbers, lots of schematics and lots of links.

Cliffs notes? I get the idea you're thinking from what was said, that most people see ufo's at 11pm'ish - how is that related to stalking them?

That crazy freak woman with the lazerpens zapping planes and gushing over her own self worth would be what I'd consider a UFO stalker.

But, I need sleep so I'll return and try once more to stuff all that in my brain, and see if I can turn it into thoughts... Right now, it's just foaming incoherent WTF's but this could also be that I just watched the debate between the two top politicians in this country, and it was like watching to drunks at a bar flirt with each other knowing they're in bed together anyway, but it's all about poise and how the public see their differences...

Stalking UFO's.. I really just cant consider what that could even mean, and if you did explain it I apologise... I saw large things and skipped most of it for now...

Just some random thoughts...

Saying that UFOs are more likely to be seen at 11pm regardless of where you are seems to obviously indicate that its not that the UFOs magically come visit conveniently at 11pm your local time, but rather that 11pm is probably the most likely time that people are outside. It's after dinner, kids are in bed, etc. People go out for a smoke, or to bring the trash out, or if camping is about the time that people are heading to their tents or laying out looking at the sky.

As for time of year, that should be obvious too. Is it just coincidence that the months with the most sightings are the months when the most people are outside doing things like camping, swimming, just being outside in general because it's not cold?

Kandinksy,
NUFORC's database can't be taken at face value on the summary pages unless they did not factor in the known hoaxes. I suppose that could be said of all of the reporting databases. One would almost need to read each and every case to determine whether or not it should be included in the data (so time consuming). Also, in reading the reports there it becomes obvious that a good many of them are approximated as to time and date. Would that also be the case with Mufon and others?

The more one searches for a pattern the more it looks like more accurate data is needed .

reply to post by SeenMyShare

The more one searches for a pattern the more it looks like more accurate data is needed

That's the main theme of the OP. There's a lot of noise in the data, but there appears to be a signal. The reoccurring higher frequencies of time/month suggest a pattern across databases. With the exception of the Johnson analysis, they share the same patterns...or at least appear to.

Eliminating hoaxes is impossible. We could set up a Facebook group and create the perception of a UFO wave as hundreds of sightings get reported from diverse, international IP addresses on a pre-planned date!

So yes, more accurate data is needed before drawing conclusions. As it was pointed out in the OP, the suggestions of these results haven't moved ufology on much further. Perhaps they point in a new direction?

reply to post by Student X


In addition you might be interested in these. Just trying to help ya out.

IS EARTH DRIVING US CRAZY? FLIPPING OUT OVER GEOMAGNETISM

Persinger’s Tectonic Strain Theory: Strengths and Weaknesses

"Well known parapsychologist Professor Loyd Auerbach indicates there is a strong connection between the local sidereal and PSI events. Studies have shown that when the sidereal time is around 13:30, paranormal activity seems to increase, experiments conducted in laboratories get better results and psychic abilities are best performed. We feel this is one more piece of data to log to try to see if the studies help our research." www.splatinvestigations.com...

"John Keel has written papers on UFO "flaps" and Charles Fort thought there were patterns to these phenomena. Charles Tart felt this might relate to the recent finding that remote viewing experiments work four times as well during a sidereal "notch" time of approximately two hours. Sidereal time changes as we orbit the sun and reflects our orientation to the greater universe. Will this effect go away in a few years? Perhaps something similar is at work with miraculous occurrences. Michael Grosso posits that there is something of a need factor at work. In his studies of Marian visions, he has found that they are analogous to NDE experiences in that they are crisis-based. However, instead of individuals coming close to death, it is cultures coming close to death or disaster. For example, in Medugorje in the 1980's, Marian visions preceded the terrible Yugoslavian war, and oddly enough, the town itself remained untouched by the hostilities. Likewise, the onset of the French revolution was preceded by Marian visions, and the Marian visions in Fatima, Portugal in 1917 correlated with World War I. This suggests a kind of collective anticipation of threat, triggering certain groups of people to become the locus of Marian visions as a way of guarding or buoying the culture." www.esalenctr.org...

"As Heath mentions, “the naturally occurring (and fluctuating) electromagnetic fields of the earth are another factor that seems to be important. Geomagnetic activity appears to be associated with the magnitude of anomalous cognition and the start of RSPK (May 2001; Puhle 2001).” (p. 167). Another factor that appears to be significant in ESP (and therefore potentially for PK) is the exposure radio wave interferences from the galaxy which occur at its peak around 1900 hours in local sidereal time (i.e. standard time), and the least interference and highest success rate of ESP occurs when there is the least amount of interference from the galaxy at around 1300 local sidereal time. Most UFO sightings occur at night around 21:00 and with a second peak around 3:00 (irrespective of sidereal time). This is a well established fact, but it can probably be explain by life habits of people, rather than through a PK analogy. Once again, this can be linked to many observations and research about the electromagnetic dimension of UFOs." parasociology.blogspot.com...

A very good collation S+F......
The timing is a very interesting point you make 22.00-23.00 coulld this be that some of the UFO phenomena rely on the position of the Magnetosphere of the planet in relation to the sun?

Kinda simple if you think about it. Gravitational Propulsion Systems might rely on a set of atmospheric and magnetyic conditions for easy in and out scouting missions for example.



[edit on 25-7-2010 by DreamerOracle]

Edited because I could

[edit on 25-7-2010 by observe50]

reply to post by Student X
Thanks for another interesting and thoughtful post. I read the pdf yesterday and enjoyed it enough to save into the black hole of the Kandy Archives. Jaques Vallee explores sidereal time in the paper linked and remains sorta neutral about it's influence on reported UFO events.

reply to post by DreamerOracle
The first video was cool. That's one of the areas that sprung to mind (magnetosphere etc). Unfortunately, I don't know enough about planetary magnetic fields or orbital mechanics to dig very deep. I barely scratched the surface. It's good having a bright idea. Not so good when we don't have the mental capacity to make use of them!!