Is it possible to 'stalk' the UFOs?
In the middle of last year I heard a casual remark by Dr Richard F Haines
) about the frequency of UFO timings. He stated
that most sightings occur in the eleventh hour PM
and this trend applies whichever hemisphere you happen to be in. This statement led me to
believe that I'd had an original idea in Ufology...a very rare thing. Well, unsurprisingly...I was wrong. My great idea has already been investigated
by some of the best scientific minds in the ufology field. I'll show you their conclusions later on and point out the sheer wealth of information and
data that's been gathered.
Was Dr Haines simply offering an opinion or was he going off the evidence? Anyone who's enjoyed his interviews and research will already know that
he's not much taken with opinion. With that in mind I began looking for evidence (tables, graphs etc) that indicates a higher frequency of UFO
sightings around the 11th hour. Naturally, the data would need to come from reliable sources using large databases. Larry Hatch,
, NIDS (defunct),
, Canadian UFO Report
are some of the online bodies gathering evidence of UFO sightings and applying the numbers to statistical
analyses. In 50 years, the commitment of some researchers is simply admirable. These are dedicated people and organisations. The Larry Hatch 'U'
database is currently being saved by our own Isaac Koi and fellow members.
So let's look at a couple of images to see if there's any truth in Dr Haine's comments...
French Agency: SEPRA
It's there isn't it? There's an apparent increase in reported sightings near the eleventh hour.
So what's the big idea?
Law enforcement psychologists can now offer informed suggestions relating to the locations of dangerous criminals. I thought we could potentially
stalk the UFOs in a similar way if their behaviour had a pattern...a predictability. Could we reach down into the pit of ufology, grab the damn thing
by the tail and drag it screaming into the light? Big idea!
If UFOs can come and go at will, as evidence suggests they can, then why would they cluster around certain periods of time? Would that suggest a
limitation or an influence that dictates that time of night? So I wondered about tidal influences and ruled that out after studying tidal times during
several peak UFO periods. No correlation to the eleventh hour at all. Could the motion of the planets and neighbouring stars have an influence? See
below. Solar activity and aurora borealis? No apparent relationship although it's the first time I had to calculate 'astronomical midnight' and
could be mistaken. Phases of the Moon? No.
Time of year looks promising
There's a very good site based in Canada that has been gathering UFO data for years. One of the organisers is astronomer Chris Rutkowski. He's
studied the field for a long time and used to release the Canadian UFO
There's an interview about the surveys here.
. They have the data already
committed to graphs and charts and it's been useful to study...
Canadian UFO reports combined
Needing more data and being unable to find credible charts or graphs for outside of Canada, I took pen, paper and calculator to NUFORC's
Monthly Report Index.
. I used the figures from 2000-2009 and those from 1965-1969 to compare
pre-Internet figures. Apologies for the presentation here, my laptop's at work and this PC doesn't have Word to draw a table.
2000-2009 Monthly Totals
Jan - 3270
Feb - 2760
Mar - 2984
Apr - 2908
May - 2880
Jun - 3539
Jul - 4491
Aug - 4425
Sep - 4167
Oct - 3955
Nov - 3589
Dec - 2885
Monthly average = 3488
1965-1969 Monthly Totals
Jan - 20
Feb - 21
Mar - 24
Apr - 47
May - 50
Jun - 231
Jul - 143
Aug - 131
Sep - 85
Oct - 77
Nov - 43
Dec - 39
Monthly average = 82.6
By now we have some small sample of data that suggests a relationship between the time of day and the time of year. It appears that UFOs are seen
significantly more frequently in the months between June and November. It also appears that they are seen more frequently after 9pm and have an
inconclusive peak around the eleventh hour PM. Interesting stuff! Sadly, this is ufology we are dealing with and nothing is ever so simple. We have to
question everything about the quality and collection of the data behind the reported sightings. I'm not going to go into that here, but I am aware of
So how about location? Is there some way of identifying UFO hotspots? Perhaps we can look at places where their frequency is below average? The
absence of UFOs might be as important as identifying regions of high activity. Thanks to the databases mentioned above, Hatch, NUFORC, CUFON and
MUFON, there's a lot of useful information available. We can look at monthly UFO report maps going back several years. There's also one drawn from
the data at the late J. Allen Hynek's CUFOS. I find it interesting because it's from a time when reports were often taken by pad and pencil in
person or over the telephone. There's was less opportunity for hoaxes under those conditions. In contrast, we could conspire to hoax a UFO wave by
filing multiple reports on the MUFON site in the next hour. It's easy.
Below is a GIF I made that combines several maps of UFO activity gathered from the Hatch 'U' Database
(images from this great site
). They run through a sequence of 1947, 50, 52, 57, 65, 73, 80-90 and
90-2000. The latter maps are Europe, S America, Australia, Asia and Africa featuring all dates (It's the first GIF I've made so batten down the
CUFOS map from pre-90s data. Check out the AFB activity
July 2005 from MUFON data
These locations imply hotspots of UFO activity. It might be true, but we have to take into account where the 'hotspots' of human populations live
too. The frequency of sightings is naturally dependent on people being there to observe in the first place. Below is a very clear map to show
population distribution in North America...
Certainly some correlations here
Time & Place! Case closed? No.
It all looks so obvious. On this kind of evidence, we can predict that UFOs are more likely to be sighted on the Eastern seaboard of the USA than the
West. We can increase our chances of seeing them if we head East during the summer/autumn months and hang out after 11pm with cameras or high-powered
rifles...depending on your mood. Personally, I think a rifle might be a good precaution...a crashed UFO or dead ET is worth more on the open market
than pictures and YT footage.
So why haven't the Governments or various elements of military and ABC Agencies gone ahead and done all this? What about the scientists? Where's
Shostak or Shermer? The fact is they already have. The authorities have the same public access to all the databases mentioned so far. Naturally,
someone, somewhere will have a lot more data to add to that too. It's easy to imagine the amount of number crunching that military interests have
applied to the UFO phenomena. They could be quite a few steps advanced from our own publicly available reports.
It's at this point that we run into the dense fogs of Ufology and the seemingly unlockable door that prevents us knowing actual answers. Earlier on I
mentioned how my 'original idea' wasn't as original as I thought. Not only has it been covered, it's been explored to a level that would surprise
many fans of ufology. The difference between armchair UFO fans and the trained scientist is vast! Some names in particular (Vallee, Sturrock, Poher
and Teoradani) have written incredibly well-thought out investigations of the data I've presented and gone much, much further whilst remaining
exactly where we stand now. Paradox is king in ufology!