posted on Jul, 22 2010 @ 02:06 AM
i am all for the hype of a tropical and its effects on the oil and the spill recovery efforts, however, i want to make a few things very clear with
regards to forecasting something like this.
first, this is a long way out when it comes to numerical models. while they can lead to a general trend, when you are talking 4 or 5 days away, its
really anyone's guess.
second, they may be making some contingencies, but with the latest runs, this "storm" is less intimidating than this post is making it seem.
For tropical development to continue, you need a conglomerate of ingredients so to speak, and it is really a very delicate process. currently, with
the U/L low over the are and shear in excess of 40kts, this storm has a LONG way to go before it is out of the woods.
not to mention, some of the global models have it tracking over central florida, wich would mean an extended time out side of its moisture source and
a short time to restrengthen over the gulf, and the models that do depict a track over southern florida and the florida straits are more leaning to a
faster track with excessive shear and very limited development with it eventually making it into the northern gulf as a weak disturbance or a very
weak storm at best.
yes, it does take several day to prepare. but it is based upon what are called "conditions of readiness"
there are 5 CORs
COR 5 is set june 1st and remains untiil the end of hurricane season. it is for destructive winds possible within 96 hours.
COR 4 is within 72 hours
COR 3 is within 48 hours
COR 2 is within 24 hours
COR 1 is 12 hours or immenent.
most sortie/evac plans are made with the setting of COR 3 dependant upon storm strength and track confidence. if the storm is weak or if the model
cluster is split or uncertain, they may wait til COR 2, though it is not a common practice.
Now, also keep in mind, that destructive winds are defined as 50kts or greater. tropical storm strength is considered 34-63kts, and hurricane is 64
right now both the GFDL and HWRF are depicting a weak tropical storm at best with max winds around 43-47kts over coastal florida, with weakening as it
transits the gulf and enters a high shear area, with max winds near deep horizon of 25-30kts.
so as i said before, they are being over cautious, and the media is being over sensationalistic about the storm.