People in the Gulf need to start keeping on an eye on this!

reply to post by lasertaglover


Thanks mate,
It all comes down to a waiting game to see what it will do and where it will go. Such is life on the coast.
R

PS Added you as a friend, FYI

reply to post by hoagy1199


The Gulf Coast is an amazing place, with so many different types of wonderful natural beauty, and also great cosmopolitan fun, like New Orleans, a city I got to visit often when I was stationed at Polk. I hope that this storm season skips that entire region as much as possible.

I can't remember what year it was recently, when a majority of the storms that season turned north before hitting florida when they came from the east. And I hope that most Gulf formed storms head southwest somehow.

Even with the slight reduction in total tropical storms for this season that some forecasting groups are now calling for, I just really hope the Oil spill is missed by all of them. I do not think that even the experts fully know what happens when a Cat 3 Hurricane churns across a massive oil spill like this one that is is also polluted with COREXIT and concentrated methane gas.

Hopefully nothing at all. That is what I am hoping and praying for myself. That not one single storm makes anything about this already horrible disaster, any worse.

And I added you as well. Hail friend

reply to post by lasertaglover


You forgot the chihuahua sized mosquitos and the humidity. Otherwise I wouldn't live anywhere else. Besides, we got the beautiful Gulf Coast Women (gotta mention my own, no offense intended to woman anywhere, I love them all)!
R

Hail friends, need all I can get

reply to post by hoagy1199


The absolute worst thing that I remember about Leesville, LA was the Godzilla sized cockroaches that would than kamikaze you if by chance you missed it the first time.

But the crawfish sure was tasty!

Relating to the the thread, there is a new update. The one tropical disturbance has gone down in chance for depression formation to 40%. But there is now a second area of disturbed weather near Mexico that has a 30% chance of formation:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Sugar...you don't need to tell us to watch...we do already...every season...
The current oil disaster has not had an effect on my contingency plan..

Tropical storm/Hurricane Cat 1 hunker down..I'm about 12 miles from
The Gulf Shore...yet on a brackish bay...lots of big pines around.......

Cat 2 or unknown...I'm outta here...got a place up north already...

Locals know when to get...better than any meteorologist....
BELIEVE THAT!!!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

1. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

2. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

www.weather.com

Roy Lucksinger, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 22, 2010 11:34 am ET

A tropical depression has developed near the southern Bahamas. Movement is to the west northwest at 15 mph.

reply to post by hoagy1199


Hail friend. Didn't you say you were in the Houston area?

The projected track is not looking good for you:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Tropical depression races toward BP's leaky well

AP – Vessels gather at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill site over the Gulf of Mexico, off the Louisiana coast, …
By HARRY WEBER and COLLEEN LONG, Associated Press Writers Harry Weber And Colleen Long, Associated Press Writers – 28 mins ago

ON THE GULF OF MEXICO – A tropical depression racing toward the Gulf of Mexico Thursday increased pressure on BP and the U.S. government to decide whether to evacuate dozens of ships at the site of the ruptured oil well.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said a cluster of thunderstorms in the Bahamas formed into a tropical depression Thursday morning. It could reach the spill site within two and a half days, said Lexion Avila, a senior hurricane specialist.

Seas already were choppy in the Gulf, with waves up to five feet rocking boats as crews waited for orders on whether to leave. Nonessential vessels like barges and skimmers will likely be sent back to shore, Commander Terri Jordan told the crew of the Coast Guard cutter Decisive at a midmorning briefing.

She said they were awaiting an evacuation order for key vessels.

Work on plugging the well is at a standstill just days before the expected completion of a relief tunnel to permanently throttle the free-flowing crude.

Worse yet, the government's spill chief said foul weather could require reopening the cap that has contained the oil for nearly a week, allowing oil to gush into the sea again for days while engineers wait out the storm.

"This is necessarily going to be a judgment call," said retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, who was waiting to see how the storm developed before deciding whether to order any of the ships to leave.

BP spokesman Scott Dean said Thursday morning that no decisions had been made yet.

Crews had planned to spend Wednesday and Thursday reinforcing with cement the last few feet of the relief tunnel that will be used to pump mud into the gusher and kill it once and for all. But BP put the task on hold and instead placed a temporary plug called a storm packer deep inside the tunnel, in case it has to be abandoned until the storm passes.

"What we didn't want to do is be in the middle of an operation and potentially put the relief well at some risk," BP vice president Kent Wells said.

Click image to see photos of oil spill aftermath


Reuters
If the work crews are evacuated, it could be two weeks before they can resume the effort to kill the well. That would upset BP's timetable, which called for finishing the relief tunnel by the end of July and plugging the blown-out well by early August.

Scientists have been scrutinizing underwater video and pressure data for days, trying to determine if the capped well is holding tight or in danger of rupturing and causing an even bigger disaster. If the storm prevents BP from monitoring the well, the cap may simply be reopened, allowing oil to spill into the water, Allen said.

BP and government scientists were meeting to discuss whether the cap could be monitored from shore.

As the storm drew closer, boat captains hired by BP for skimming duty were sent home and told they wouldn't be going back out for five or six days, said Tom Ard, president of the Orange Beach Fishing Association in Alabama.

In Florida, crews removed booms intended to protect waterways in the Panhandle from oil. High winds and storm surge could carry the booms into sensitive wetlands.

Also, Shell Oil began evacuating employees out in the Gulf.

Even if the storm does not hit the area directly, it could affect the effort to contain the oil and clean it up. Hurricane Alex stayed 500 miles away last month, yet skimming in Alabama, Mississippi and Florida was curtailed for nearly a week.

The relief tunnel extends about two miles under the seabed. It's now about four feet from the side of the well, although BP still has more than 100 feet to drill diagonally before the tunnel reaches the well. BP plans to insert a final string of casing, or drilling pipe, cement it into place, and give it up to a week to set, before attempting to punch through to the blown-out well and kill it.

BP's broken well spewed somewhere between 94 million and 184 million gallons into the Gulf before the cap was attached. The crisis — the biggest offshore oil spill in U.S. history — unfolded after the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon rig exploded April 20, killing 11 workers.

The cause of the blast is still under investigation, but there have been repeated questions raised by rig workers over the equipment and safety conditions aboard the rig.

The New York Times reported early Thursday that rig workers said in a confidential survey before the April 20 explosion that they were concerned about safety and the condition of some equipment on board.

The Times reported that another report conducted for Transocean by Lloyd's Register Group found that several pieces of equipment — including the rams in the failed blowout preventer on the well head — had not been inspected since 2000, despite guidelines calling for inspection every three to five years. Transocean said most of the equipment was minor and the blowout preventer was inspected by manufacturer guidelines.

A spokesman for Transocean, the owner of the rig leased by BP, confirmed the existence of the reports to The Associated Press.

"As part of Transocean's unwavering commitment to safety and rigorous maintenance discipline on all our rigs, we proactively commissioned the safety survey and the rig assessment review," Transocean spokesman Lou Colasuonno said in an e-mail early Thursday. "A fair reading of those detailed third-party reviews indicates clearly that while certain areas could be enhanced, overall rig maintenance met or exceeded regulatory and industry standards and the Deepwater Horizon's safety management was strong and a culture of safety was robust on board the rig."

I made a new thread that is trying get both the Hurricane trackers and the Oil trackers on here to come together and discuss, plus any updated information. I probably won't be back on this thread, but many thanks if you posted here.

The 'Up to the Minute' Live Hurricane Bonnie and Oil Spill Thread

www.abovetopsecret.com...