reply to post by GreenBicMan
I think you speak for the knowledgeable investor, or at least the majority of them, when you legitimately ask for realistic options, in the face of
what looks like the most conservative returns of the past 50 years, maybe even 100 years (depending upon assumptions), with the S&P500, or whatever we
may choose as representative of the US economy at least.
I'm actually glad to see someone trying to look at a bit more history than the past 20 or 30 years only, even though that would coincide with much of
our own human experience. We do need to gain perspective, whether we were alive back then, or not.
I hope this metaphor won't be too cumbersome...For some of us, our "job" might be to study the particular tree in front of us, amidst a forest,
so-to-speak. But there could be perspective beyond simply acknowledging we're in a forest. What if the forest we acknowledge and are familiar with,
turns out to be yet another "tree", relatively speaking, in the larger sense. Continuing with the metaphor, what if "our" forest consisted of
trees planted only a scant 50 or 60 years ago?
If this was "our" forest, the one we knew, perhaps we would begin to make broad assumptions about trees and forests. We might say, "Here, we have
found a rather large specimen. Obviously, in comparison to the rest, it is spectacular!"
However, all along, our little forest, of relatively little trees, which forms the basis of much of our "sound" speculations about trees, and
forests, would be rather far off the mark. Because there are in fact trees that have grown for thousands of years. There are trees that tower
hundreds of feet over our experience of "forest". And if we took a big step back, and saw these other forests, suddenly our little forest would
come into proper perspective, and "shrink" considerably.
This may be in fact what we're dealing with today. Here again is another quote from someone you may recognize, although probably the average person
"We are in a world of irredeemable paper money - a state of affairs unprecedented in history."
The famous "upside down pyramid" was really his, if I'm not mistaken, and revised and updated by Trace Mayer (posted earlier in this thread).
Having worked for the Fed, and having even set up the central bank of Ceylon, Exter was an insider, and saw what was going on. But even as an
insider, his personal baggage did not allow him to sell-out. He had seen his father destroyed by the Depression, and quit banking to do consulting.
Exter went around the country in the 1960's telling people to buy gold of course, and presented his pyramid, and those who listened, did quite well
in that insane period when gold went from $35 to $850 briefly.
His quote above is really the crux of the current issue. Are we really in uncharted waters at this point? Could we be as smug as the captain of the
Titanic (good one Mordant1)?
Whether the waters be uncharted or not, they are incredibly muddy. As Exter said, "irredeemable paper money", and this "money", ends up being the
most diabolical moving target anyone could have dreamed up. By design, I would venture to say, but whether we think in dollars, or pounds, swiss
francs or yuan, all of this paper fiat mess, is put in a neat little "basket" of currencies, that can really keep the forex guys on their toes! We
get caught up in so many basis points, on a particular day. We listen attentively to the Fed's latest pronouncement. The indexes all go up, or they
go down, and later the "basket" mix is conveniently changed out, to address whatever part of the fraud that wasn't working out quite right, etc.
It's nauseating, and we should be above this crap.
Again, I do not dismiss what you bring up at all. You have said that you spend 12 hours a day with the reams of stats that give you your perspective,
if I recall, and that's more than many could say. But, as useful as all the data is, for exactly what you aim to achieve (in the short run), could
it be we're really still looking at trees?
In this case, I think we best at least consider what Exter said. This is an "unprecedented"
situation we are dealing with here. It calls
not so much for last year's charts, or conventional wisdom, it calls for a big step outside of the box. And while probably most "gold-bugs" are
far from out-of-the-box thinkers, they are at least far enough outside of the propaganda flow to perhaps get this one right. Maybe, through no credit
of their own really, although I would submit that many do in fact take these things quite seriously. Maybe as seriously as you seem to take your
Anyway, I would like to say that you, and others with many of the more recent posts, have raised the quality of this thread significantly, to my way
of thinking. No, we don't always have to agree, but I personally like to keep things real, and I think maybe we're getting there somehow.