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Originally posted by JR MacBeth
reply to post by cloudbreak
But thankfully, the "base" of this upside-down pyramid (really the apex, when the pyramid is righted), is quite solid. From this "foundation", the world can always "recover", because when the dream is gone, when everyone knows that it has all been a big lie, they won't accept mere "promises" anymore. In a recovery period, we will refuse to accept paper (or smoke!), and we will logically demand something tangible, again, such has it ever been.
Originally posted by cloudbreak
reply to post by sligtlyskeptical
Cherry-picking your dates is basically a meaningless act as far as long-term gold and the current global situation goes. Why not pick 1971 when gold was at $35 or so? Or 1976 when gold was $105?
The point is we saw a 20 year period where gold did not exhibit the relationship you say exist. Even from that $305 base in 1980, gold did not increase at all although consumer prices rose 150%.
I will accept your wager without hesitation! Thank you. You do realize you are saying gold is going to $400-500 this year, don’t you? And that it will not be worth anything more than this for the next 17 years? Wow. If you are so sure of yourself, you should be shorting gold like mad from here and you could be a billionaire by Christmas.
That is not what I said. I said that if you are still holding at end of the year it will take a long time to get even. Eventually $400 will be reached again, although it could take a while. I even accept the possibility that Gold goes higher by year end but it won't last much longer than that. Those who hold long term, even gold bought at $400, will trail the returns of most other financial assets over the long term.
I would short gold but I feel being long equities will bring me a greater return in the time gold falls to $400.
I don't want to use up any more space on this board but I do want to say one last thing. In every bubble you have the bubble bulls pulling out data that supposedly proves their point on why their bubble asset will go higher. As history shows that is never the case and a flaw in their thinking becomes exposed. Gold is no different. The flaw here is to think that gold has much, if any, value as a currency because it doesn't. It is a fear trade and that is it. Just look at all the spikes in gold. They all occurred during fearful economic times and the spikes all retreated once the economic enviroment settled down. We are near the end days of the fear and the retreat is just around the corner.
Originally posted by OBE1
Anybody that proclaims dollar denominated stocks (S&P), a "store of value" has never studied long-term stock valuations adjusted for inflation (real returns).
Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by mordant1
So are you agreeing with me or not? I can't tell.
But if you are not, you surely can not disregard actual historical performance. Performance that is easily verifiable and has created trillions of dollars of wealth around the world?