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The smoothed ECRI leading economic index fell in the opening week in June for the fifth week in a row and now down in nine of the past ten. The index, went from +0.3% to -3.5%, the weakest it has been in a year. After predicting the V-shaped recovery we got briefly in the inventory-led GDP data when the index soared off the bottom in late 2008, at -3.5%, we can safely say that this barometer is now signalling an 80% chance of a double-dip recession. It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data).
Originally posted by Dbriefed
Weekly Leading Index
What exactly? A high-frequency leading index of U.S. economic growth. The Weekly Leading Index directly addresses concerns about the freshness of data that forecasters have with existing leading indicators, including the monthly Index of Leading economic indicators
Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute. The ECRI was founded by the late Geoffrey H. Moore, creator of the original leading economic indicators index and, as it happens, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's stats professor at New York University in the 1940s.
Released when? Friday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Data for week ended prior Friday.
Market importance:Some. Occasionally moves market. Very timely. On Friday, the Weekly Leading Index is updated with data through the previous week with only a one-week publication lag. Considered a leading index of overall economic conditions, particularly in light of its real-time record of predicting recessions and recoveries. Has a moderate lead over business cycles.
Other notes:The Weekly Leading Index supplies the information for its monthly equivalent, The Weekly Leading Index -- Monthly, which is a high-frequency leading index of U.S. economic growth available very promptly. The monthly data is available on the first Friday of the following month.