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Miami, Florida Keys Face Up to 80% Chance of BP Oil, U.S. Says

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posted on Jul, 3 2010 @ 09:06 AM

Miami and the Florida Keys face a 61 percent to 80 percent chance of being hit with tar balls from BP Plc’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to U.S. projections.

Shorelines with the greatest chance of being soiled by oil, 81 percent to 100 percent, stretch from the Mississippi River Delta to the western Panhandle of Florida, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said today in a statement on its projection for the next four months.

Much of Florida’s west coast has a “low probability” of “oiling” from the leak that began with an explosion on a BP- leased drilling rig on April 20, the agency said.

The Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale face a greater risk because oil may be caught up in the Loop Current, a flow of warm water that snakes into the Gulf and then moves east, NOAA said. Scientists say the current could carry the oil at a speed of about 100 miles (161 kilometers) a day around the tip of Florida, potentially fouling the Keys and Miami Beach.

I think that 80% is a conservative estimate. And the article says that tar balls might wash up on the beach, but with all the dispersant used, I would expect that the damage be much more severe to the ecosystem. Just when the real estate market was about to this!
Who wants to buy a cheap condo in Key West?

[edit on 3-7-2010 by whaaa]

posted on Jul, 3 2010 @ 10:15 AM
As someone who lives on Miami Beach I am very concerned about these possibilities.

The good news is original estimates placed the oil reaching here shortly after the last holiday weekend.

Over a month later there is still no evidence of that happening.

Now whether that's because of the chemicals being used to 'sink' the oil, the other containment efforts, or tidal and current and wind conditions or something else, I for one am thankful.

Every day that passes does bring us one day closer to the well being contatined, the leak stopped, and the focus shifting entirely to cleanup.

It's a race against time, and only time will tell.

Prepare for the worst, but continue to hope for the best, the power of positive thinking can in fact make 'miracles' happen.

posted on Jul, 3 2010 @ 10:15 AM
Yeah, I think there's virtually 0% chance that they keys won't be affected if they don't get this thing stopped.

posted on Jul, 3 2010 @ 12:32 PM
Wait -- what time frame are they specifying for their "probability" studies? Four months? What about after that?

If this stuff is turning into chunks of tar and sinking, it may be washing up on beaches for years. Are they dredging it off the ocean floor?

posted on Jul, 3 2010 @ 02:38 PM
reply to post by Ian McLean

I think this video will give a proper indication of what will happen to the east coast of Florida with the toxic soup carried by the Gulf stream eventually polluting even the Atlantic.

God help us!!

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