What about the suction? I hear these are not that big. The suction from the up pour might suck the drill up and cause more problems.

Pray it does not.


However, what does a relief well do other than spread the problem? I mean, we ARE working off an old broken pipe. Is patching a part of it a guarantee it will not break again?

Much more information on the geology below the seafloor at the site is necessary to make any judgments,or reasonable speculation on the chances of success of a bottom kill attempt.
I will say if the reports of a huge methane gas build-up below the seafloor are correct the more holes we put in it the worse it could become. Also if this report is true BP is going balls out to seal it up. If they get it sealed up and there is a large to massive outgassing afterwords they can argue it was not caused by their blow out. If there is a large hazard awaiting and their well is deteriorating and gushing when it occurs it would mean a complete death of the corporation and likely precipitate an uncontrollable public demonstration.
The other high motivation for getting this sealed off is even if there is no "bubble" of methane built up the hot discharge has got to be having an effect on the clathrates it is passing thru en route to the surface and in in the cracked areas of the casing which go very deep into the seafloor.This is bound to be destabilizing the remaining wellhead.
At any rate as long as it is not for nukes and they don't just blow like the first did I am hopeful about the relief wells but also feel they should be filled and capped and the area left the hell alone if they succeed.
Whatever the outcome I have the strong feeling this will not be over even once the well is hopefully sealed up or relief wells in place.
Until a complete study of the leaking fissures, it is determined if the clathrates are still stable and GPR has ruled out the presence of a sub surface "bubble" of gas this gusher has caused, this is still an unknown ongoing danger so personally am not expecting anything final about a successful bottom kill until the mentioned factors are understood.
S&F to the OP who is hardly some BP apologist, and thanks for the update
N.

If all else fails.. That's a helluva thing to have to contemplate while this disaster only grows in scope and impact even as I type this.

The nuke option isn't a good one; let's not add radiation to the already hellish mix of oil and chemicals pouring out of that well.

But the basic idea of "cauterizing" the well is a good idea, imho.

Maybe something like plastic cased magnesium blocks mated to shaped charges could be placed via ROV; ignite the magnesium, and then blow the charges to focus the plasma on the well like a giant blow torch.

Originally posted by Gorman91
What about the suction? I hear these are not that big. The suction from the up pour might suck the drill up and cause more problems.

Mm, not sure about that. You are saying will the force of the gusher whip the drill head up the existing shaft? I suppose it must be a possibility.

However, what does a relief well do other than spread the problem? I mean, we ARE working off an old broken pipe. Is patching a part of it a guarantee it will not break again?

I think you may be misunderstanding here. The purpose is not to patch the pipe but to seal it. They will pump in concrete if they can stop the flow. This happens at the bottom of the old broken pipe.

This was actually what they were doing when all this happened - sealing the well. It was to be capped and left.

prime trouble is internal well's pressure: if it' d have been quite low, problem 'd be no more than nothing -- there're extremal pressure & relief wells shan't be useful.

Let's hope this works as planned.

However, since this oil resovoir is under enough pressure to already have caused one blowout, why is BP confident that it won't happend again? Even if they do succeed in getting it plugged, wouldn't the pressure buildup underneath the plug eventually cause it to fail too?

As much as I hate to think BP would profit from this disaster, wouldn't using the two relief wells to obtain oil twice as fast be a better option? It seems to me that would ensure the pressure in the existing well is minimized enough that they can begin to pump in a couple miles of concrete into the original well, ensuring that the plug doesn't fail. In my mind, if the ocean floor and a mile of water above it, is not enough to quell the oil and methane flow, how does one expect a measly few feet/yards of cement to plug it up?

Naturally all the above is speculation, as I am not an oil engineer or geologist. However, common sense tells me that once you grab a tiger by the tail, you have just got to hold on the best you can until he tires out (until the oil resovoir is drained enough to casue the pressure to drop to more manageable levels). Besides, if BP did succeed in pumping the oil twice as fast as before, that would allow for a bigger compensation package for the people, critters, and environment in the Gulf.

Originally posted by Sashromi
Let's hope this works as planned.

Absolutely agreed on that.

However, since this oil resovoir is under enough pressure to already have caused one blowout, why is BP confident that it won't happend again?

Most, but not all, wells are initially under pressure and get a gusher when the breakthrough to the oil bearing strata is achieved. A few are not and require the installation of 'nodding donkeys' to lift the oil.

This pressure gets less and less as oil is extracted and eventually the well gets to the point where either a nodding donkey system has to be installed or gas/water are pumped in under pressure to eject the remaining oil. This is the current situation in Saudi Arabia and I believe in Iran.

Even if they do succeed in getting it plugged, wouldn't the pressure buildup underneath the plug eventually cause it to fail too?

Probably not as it is the same as a plug of rock, and the rock that was there before held the pressure. Imagine the weight of a column of concrete on average 12" wide and 2.4 miles high.

As much as I hate to think BP would profit from this disaster, wouldn't using the two relief wells to obtain oil twice as fast be a better option? It seems to me that would ensure the pressure in the existing well is minimized enough that they can begin to pump in a couple miles of concrete into the original well, ensuring that the plug doesn't fail.

With the pressures there I would imagine that could be years.

In my mind, if the ocean floor and a mile of water above it, is not enough to quell the oil and methane flow, how does one expect a measly few feet/yards of cement to plug it up?

Make that miles!!

I would hope they do some radar/sonar surveys of the casing areas. my main fear about success is not that they can pump in concrete that will hold but that the well casing fractures have created pockets that will siphon off the concrete as it is injected making for an incomplete column forming.
Should this occur future attempts will be greatly hindered.
The other problem I think needs looked into is the stability of the caprock which appears to be leaking in various sites. My hope is these are not made worse or actually a worse problem forming by the back pressure plugging the well at this point may cause on what seems to be an already weak geologic structure.
Just voicing what I hope the guys pulling strings are thinking about as they get ready for another "experiment" with extreme drilling ops.
N.

I was expecting a lot of the crazies to come out of the woodwork during the BP leak, but what I've seen here at ATS has been almost surreal; textbook doomer disinfo combined with some pretty ingenious, yet easy to see through methods:

1. Use Hoagland. Always gotta get the Hoagland in there.
2. Use a Title that forecasts at least 100 million dead.
3. Twist logic to support scientific evidence. Twist evidence to support claim.
4. If no evidence exists, make it up. Create Blogspot pages and write "News Articles" on Helium (User created "news source") to support made up "scientific results".
5. Claim to be whistle blower on "highly acclaimed" news source. Expect nobody will notice said source is the only one everyone is quoting.

It's so rich, there's gotta be money in it. Whether it's for some lost sensation of attention, or for the almighty dollar is a mystery to me, but it's definitely become a great ride for the observer.

At any rate, without going on like a hen in a sewing circle: Thank you for this thread. You've obviously caught on to the only way it works around here, and were able to get actual evidence into it to boot. Definitely a worthy read, although I'm a bit put off by the lack of the world exploding in the process. Finally, someone actually gets it.



[edit on 2-7-2010 by EnkiCarbone]

I hope all of those flags aren't because of the title.

Lol, if so, kudos for revealing that some people don't read threads and flag em for the title