reply to post by getreadyalready
Actually all of the former-Soviet states except for Russia have given up their nuclear arsenals because of the expense of them and the fact that they
needed to add much of the control systems that existed in Moscow if they ever were to be used.
India and Pakistan's weapons are firmly pointed at the other, and their rivalry has become very low key in recent years. China has absolutely zero
interest in a nuclear war, it'd be the death of their country economically. The United States, United Kingdom and France simply will not use them,
unless nuked first. Russia has no reason to use their nukes, they are starting to side with the United States in Iran and I still believe they are
highly inflating the number of usable weapons they have.
This leaves Iran and Israel as the only real nuclear players in the Middle East, and saying that Iran is a year from a bomb still means they are many
years from a deliverable bomb. As I said, it's not easy to make a bomb, but it's really hard to make one that you can use. North Korea is still
working on that part and probably can't even nuke Tokyo yet. Israel stood on the shoulders of the US, UK and France to make their systems work, Iran
does not have that luxury.
I actually do not believe there are loose nukes in the hands of terrorist organizations for one simple fact: They would have used them by now. You
can bet Osama would have loved to take down more than the World Trade Center and a wing of the Pentagon. Al-Quaeda here in the UK would like nothing
more than to turn my fair London into a hole and we could go on for pages about what various groups would do to Israel if they could, but none of it
has happened yet.
What possible motivation would a terrorist organization today have for holding a nuclear weapon in reserve? Nuclear deterrence only works between
countries, and if any organization ever proclaimed to the world that they had one for that purpose, they would be swamped by NATO troops within hours.
Russia, the best bet for a loose nuke, has locked down their stockpiles, and there are a number of contingencies in place just in case anything from
Pakistan ever goes missing. The Asian powers and United States are watching North Korea like circling hawks for any exportation of nuclear materials
and it would be far easier to walk to the moon than to steal a nuke from America, France, China or the United Kingdom.
This leaves us again with Israel and Iran. Iran has the already mentioned limitations and I truly pity any terrorist idiotic enough to try to steal a
nuke from Israel. I do not think there are enough virgins in all of heaven to help one get over what Mossad would do to them.
I do think you're right the age of nuclear war is ending, we do have much better conventional bombs now. Honestly what I am really afraid of in an
Iran-Israel conflict is the use of chemical weapons those are far cheaper and easier to deliver and we know for a fact that Iran has them.