China overlooked

Don't believe the hyped up PLA threats about attacking Taiwan or wars with the US.

The Chinese are patient, they are waiting. Time is working in their favour.
China has no desire for a war right now, too busy doing the following:
1. developing China, trying to develop the interior and not just coastal cities before the peasants invade Shanghai or Guangzhou,
2. building an international coalition of developing countries who resist US foreign policies. They are becoming successful in this field, US foreign policy disasters have been very helpful
3. securing resources particularly oil in the Middle East (alternatively this is the only reason I see the Chinese going to war, not over Taiwan)

Taiwan is a convenient reminder to the mainland's population that there is always a need to better the military and always an evil threat out there... just a convenient way to control people, by scaring them.

Taiwan will return to China, it's only a matter of time. Beijing knows this, thime is working in their favor. China has became the n.1 source of Taiwanese fireign direct investment a couple of years ago. The Chinese will provide Taiwan with business opportunities effectively creating an economic interdependance that cancels any benefits war could engender. The truth is most Taiwanese really care about their economy and job prospects. If it involves getting closer to China, then so be it.

Lived in Taiwan before, know in Shanghai. The only people I hear talking about war are not the Chinese population on either sides of the Strait, but their governments and the so called "foreign policy analysts".

By the way, China's spending on military may have increased, but it's still only a fraction of the US's...

china won't invade taiwan any time soon. it has far more to lose than gain from such an action. the chinese military buildup seems consistent with its recent incredible economic boom, the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and its space program developments... china is undergoing massive development not just militarily, but diplomatically, technologically, and economically. it's military buildup seems to me to be more like the american RMA than anything operational.

koji K.

I can add but one thing to this excellent thread. China with her 100 billion-trade surpluses, much of which goes to the military and military science preparing for war. The following links to nanotechnology info are a key to future warfare and China may be in the lead.

The Geostrategically Lobotomized West

Lev Navrozov
www.newsmax.com...
Friday, June 25, 2004

Here is a New York Times Magazine article of June 6, 2004, by Jon Gertner about Bill Joy, whom the author describes as a �Silicon Valley deity, generally regarded as one of the most gifted engineers,� etc. (snip)

(snip) Every psychiatrically normal adult can realize that if �tiny self-replicating nanobots� may be dangerous to the population in a friendly environment (such as a lab or a test in Nevada), they may be infinitely more dangerous if used by a powerful enemy country as a weapon to annihilate the United States or the West as a whole. (snip)

And this Article:
Why the Feds Fear Nanobots
by James M. Pethokoukis | Mar 17 '04
www.keepmedia.com...

Last December, President Bush signed a bill-the 21st-Century Nanotech Research and Development Act-that will provide $3.7 billion to nanotechnology projects over four years. But the legislation seems to be getting more attention for what it does not fund than for what it does. In particular, it fails to fund a study examining the feasibility of "nanobots"-molecule-size robotic devices that would position atoms and molecules to build complex substances and products from the bottom up in a process called molecular manufacturing.

And:
� NANOBOTS �
(And other things you can't see!)

www.his.com...

One of the goals of nanotechnology is to build nano-scale machines. These machines will operate at the atomic and molecular level. They will be just as invisible as the atoms they are composed of. Drexler refers to these machines as "universal assemblers." He says that they will be able to "bond atoms together in virtually any stable pattern, adding a few at a time to the surface of a workpiece until a complex structure is complete...they will let us build almost anything that the laws of nature allow to exist. (snip)
_______________________________________________________________________
Nanotechnology could be the technology of the future. Imagine a literal wee manchine, which could deliver a drug directly to cancer cells and no other cells or even a little machine, which could eat the cancerous cells. Imagine little machines, which could repair a severed spinal cord or eat up oil spills in the ocean. The possibilities of nanotechnology are only as limited as the brain of man.

As with any technology, there is the darker side of the danger of molecular nanoweapons. Imagine if you would, a �dust� sprayed in advance in an area you know troops will advance in. This dust could do anything from give the troops diarrhea to making them mentally unstable turning on one another. You could possibly create a weapon to eat tires off vehicles and on and on and on. The possibilities of nanotechnology are endless.

To quote from the above NewsMax article, �such weapons were described in a Chinese newspaper in 2000 in addition to six other �top-notch weapons of future warfare.� China is not asleep in the world of technology. While it is true, years ago, China took one of our airliners and backward engineered it and when they finished, it couldn�t even take off, things have changed. Why? Because Klinton and Bush Light have handed over too darn much info and technology to them including super computers. So much for loyal American Presidents!

China wants to dominate the Far East, not only the lands but the seas as well. They see it as their destiny and nothing will stop them. Russia is even afraid of China; they understand all too well what is happening there militarily.

Though few in the world actually know what is going on in the Black Ops War Development of any country, we can be assured it is not good for any living things. The United States appears to not be taking this nanotechnology as seriously as China, though in the background, one never knows. What we do know is China is a giant power and if they ever flex their wings, we will be in for a battle royal. If we can�t surpass them on the battlefield, we will loose.

The next major war will probably be over either, oil, food, clean water, or a combination. America would be a ship of fools to get involved in Taiwan vs. China. The losses would be staggering!

Ghostwolfemoon

I think people have really underestimated Taiwan.

They have a more advanced Navy than China (so does Japan). They have more Nuclear Power Plants than China. Taiwan has been preparing to fend off China for the past 60 years.

China attacking Taiwan would be similar to a dog trying to bite a porcupine.

Everyone prattles about China's superior number of troops. Except for inside mainland China itself most of those troops are useless. For China to do anything else, they actually have to get those troops to the battlefield. Unless that battlefield is in China itself or in one of the land border countires that surround it, it would take them awhile just to move their huge army. China's transport capabilities are woefully inadaquate for the task.

Originally posted by Ambient Sound
I think people have really underestimated Taiwan.

They have a more advanced Navy than China (so does Japan). They have more Nuclear Power Plants than China. Taiwan has been preparing to fend off China for the past 60 years.

China attacking Taiwan would be similar to a dog trying to bite a porcupine.

Everyone prattles about China's superior number of troops. Except for inside mainland China itself most of those troops are useless. For China to do anything else, they actually have to get those troops to the battlefield. Unless that battlefield is in China itself or in one of the land border countires that surround it, it would take them awhile just to move their huge army. China's transport capabilities are woefully inadaquate for the task.

You beat me to this point. Taiwan's defenses are considerable. Everyone talks about the weapons Taiwan purchases from the United States, but Taiwan also produces a significant number of its own armaments, including its own IDF fighter jet that is far superior to anything China can make and isn't that far off from most of China's Russian built fighters.

China has a massive land army, but it won't do any good if they can't get it to Taiwan. At this time, Taiwan has a qualitative advantage in the air and in the water. Any talk of the war being over before the Americans and/or the Japanese can offer assistance is nothing more than wishful thinking.

TC,
Thank you for starting the thread about what I've been saying from when I started to post on this board. Like earlier said China has time to build up it's army. Every time you buy a plastic toy just think you are helping to build up the Chinese military

Originally posted by chinalurker
Taiwan is going back to China, one way or another the way I see it. And I'll see the grand opening and all the missiles from my balcony here in Xiamen when it all starts

I don't think diplomacy will solve much.

A matter of time as we call it over here.

Do you think a 32 floor building mainly constructed with Iron stand well if a missile hits btw..? I might consider moving to Longyan and the countryside when the whole party really gets going. But the first missiles I would definately want to see from my balcony, hehe

Welcome to visit as we get closer to launch. I'll serve green tee and biscuits, front seat on 28th floor with view of the sea between Xiamen and Taiwan. Spectacular~~

Lurker

I'll see you there in time for X-mas. Well, if China does attack I doubt any foreign forces will intervene - seeing that the UN has ignored the past three genocides in Sudan, Cambodia, etc. and still does not do anything about it. If Taiwan goes back to China - which after reasding previous posts, I think they will, but not in the upcoming 2-3 years yet.

[edit on 26-6-2004 by Socalbmx]

Originally posted by chinalurker
I don't think any issue regarding Taiwan will go quickly. Neither diplomatic nor military. If China attack Taiwan in order to conquer, they won't give up easily just because America joins the battle.

I can agree with you on the diplomatic aspect, but not so miltary-wise. The mainland hasn't conquered any land for a looooooooooooooong time, and as far as I know China hasn't been stepping on anyone's toes, nor do I think they will.

If they do win, I'm imagining there's still some kind of consequence/penalty for attacking Taiwan for no reason (well, maybe jus for the pride), but that's still not a reason why someone should just invade Taiwan.

Do not forget China doesnt actively seek to conquer anywhere.
Let us not look at China's military changes, but America's military changes. as soon as someone but America does something big to the military it becomes 'gasp shock horror'.

Originally posted by Socalbmx

I can agree with you on the diplomatic aspect, but not so miltary-wise. The mainland hasn't conquered any land for a looooooooooooooong time, and as far as I know China hasn't been stepping on anyone's toes, nor do I think they will.

If they do win, I'm imagining there's still some kind of consequence/penalty for attacking Taiwan for no reason (well, maybe jus for the pride), but that's still not a reason why someone should just invade Taiwan.

HUH?!?!?! Tibet in 1950, some Indian territory in 1962, the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam in 1974, Mischief Reef from the Philippines in 1997.

I believe that the military buildup has more to do with strategic concerns, more than anything else. Like any sovereign nation that doesn't always play ball with the US, China may feel the need to strengthen their offensive and defensive capabilities in case US aggression spins more out of control than it has in the last 50 years or so. Additionally, they may not want to tolerate another US Spyplane crash like they did in March 2001.

The new leader who took the reigns a year ago, I believe, also said that such events would be a part of his agenda. By events, I mean the modernization and enhancing of Chinese military. Taiwan could very well be a target, but logic seems to point that China is simply enhacing their military in case worse comes to worst.

Considering that an east-west conflict, particularly with China vs the US, is the trump card of the Illuminutti agenda to bring about World War III, this increased spending may also be a precursor to such a potentially horrific war.

Originally posted by ludahai

Originally posted by Socalbmx

I can agree with you on the diplomatic aspect, but not so miltary-wise. The mainland hasn't conquered any land for a looooooooooooooong time, and as far as I know China hasn't been stepping on anyone's toes, nor do I think they will.

If they do win, I'm imagining there's still some kind of consequence/penalty for attacking Taiwan for no reason (well, maybe jus for the pride), but that's still not a reason why someone should just invade Taiwan.

HUH?!?!?! Tibet in 1950, some Indian territory in 1962, the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam in 1974, Mischief Reef from the Philippines in 1997.

Tibet was part of the Qing Dynasty.
China had two war with India, first they lost a lot and then gain back a bit, but still ceded land to India. Paracel Islands still disputed, including the Spartas ones. Jiang is a loser and a sell out in my opinion.

Originally posted by ludahai
One of the big issues being debated here in Taiwan regards the "Three Gorges Dam." Should it be a target should China initiate a war with Taiwan. Frankly, I think it SHOULD be a target and any discussion of publically taking it off a list of potential targets is absurd. When you are being threatened by a much larger neighbor, you should use anything you can as a deterrant against it. Taiwan's ability to strike the dam with missiles, and therefore its ability to leave much of Central China underwater, shouldn't be so quickly given away.

your arguement seemingly proves that those who claim taiwan's independence are not only trouble makers,but also some kind of terriots,
perhaps the only difference is that they don't have the nerve.

I just finished reading this thread when i found this on Google News:


BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese Communist Party chief and President Hu Jintao has urged the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for a military struggle, but stopped short of singling out rival Taiwan as the target.

Many security analysts see the Taiwan Strait as the most dangerous flashpoint in Asia. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has threatened to attack if the democratic island of 23 million people declares independence.

Hu, who assumed the role of military chief less than two weeks ago, told the 2.5-million-strong PLA to "seize the moment and do a good job of preparing for a military struggle," the People's Daily and the Liberation Army Daily said on Thursday.

Hu did not say against whom the struggle might be fought.

But on Wednesday, a spokesman for China's policymaking Taiwan Affairs Office accused Taiwan Premier Yu Shyi-kun of clamoring for war with threats to fire missiles at Shanghai if the PLA attacked the self-ruled island.

Taiwan needed a counter-strike capability, Yu said in defense of plans to buy T$610.8 billion (US$18.2 billion) worth of weapons from the United States.

He made the remarks hours before thousands of people took to the streets of Taipei on Saturday to demand the government scrap the weapons package they said would trigger an arms race with China and squeeze social welfare and state spending on education.

Tension between China and Taiwan has been simmering since the re-election in March of the island's President Chen Shui-bian, who Beijing is convinced will push for statehood during his second four-year term.

Beijing and Taipei have been rivals since their split at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, but trade, investment and tourism have blossomed since detente in the late 1980s.

Hu also urged the PLA, the world's biggest army, to "comprehensively revolutionize, modernize and standardize," newspapers said. No details were given.

Hu, 61, replaced Jiang Zemin, 78, as chairman of the Central Military Commission on Sept. 19, completing the most orderly leadership succession in the 55 years since the Communist Party took power.

The following day he promoted two senior officers in a move that was likely to help consolidate his position in the PLA.
Source: www.reuters.com...

Here's my two cents to another good thread on China and Taiwan:

SweatmonicaIdo, the US could never ever invade the chinese mainland. They could never win and they would get their arses kicked because China has more soldiers of military service age than the entire population of the United States. The Chinese people are extremely nationlistic and would gladly die in their millions to protect the mainland.


here's some facts from the CIA factbook :

China :

GDP:
purchasing power parity - $6.449 trillion (2003 est.)

GDP - real growth rate:
9.1% (official data) (2003 est.)

Military manpower - military age:
18 years of age (2004 est.)

Military manpower - availability:
males age 15-49: 379,524,688 (2004 est.)

Military manpower - fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 208,143,352 (2004 est.)

Military manpower - reaching military age annually:
males: 12,494,201 (2004 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure:
$60 billion (2003 est.)

Military expenditures - percent of GDP:
3.5-5.0% (FY03 est.)

USA:

GDP
purchasing power parity - $10.99 trillion (2003 est.)

Military manpower - military age:
18 years of age (2004 est.)

Military manpower - availability:
males age 15-49: 73,597,731 (2004 est.)

Military manpower - fit for military service:
NA (2004 est.)

Military manpower - reaching military age annually:
males: 2,124,164 (2004 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure:
$370.7 billion (FY04 est.) (March 2003)

Military expenditures - percent of GDP:
3.3% (FY03 est.) (February 2004)

With these figures and with China being the worlds factory I would bet that China would be able to easily fend off a land invasion by the United States.

The Taiwan question to me is simple enough : How much is China willing to pay for Taiwan? If they are willing to sacrfice the millions of men needed to take Taiwan it can be done. Taiwan has a extremely good defence force and the island is well defended. The only problem Taiwan has is its relatively small population. If they use their technology and terrain to their advantage they may be able to hold out with US help. I personally don't believe the US is willing to start a war with China over Taiwan. I personally believe it will be a "conflict" with a few carrier battle groups sent there.

Taiwan belongs to China. I support the One China policy but only if there if china becomes more democratic.

thanks,
drfunk