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TD1 forms in Caribean Sea could threaten LA,MS,AL 1st Oilcane of 2010

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posted on Jun, 25 2010 @ 07:03 PM
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Guys I just looked at the latest GFS model runs for the AL93 now Tropical Depression 1.



Its not looking good for the MS Gulf Coast right now. I pray that thin don't come here but it looks like the Forecast Models are in somewhat of an agreement.



Tropical Depression ONE Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 252346
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN






www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Flash IR loop Color enhanced

[edit on 25-6-2010 by SWCCFAN]




posted on Jun, 25 2010 @ 07:13 PM
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It really don't matter where the storm hits the winds will push the Oil on to the LA, MS and AL coast and depending on the storms track maybe inland quite a ways.

Any storm that impacts this area is going to just about wipe out the Marsh grass and then the marsh.

Katrina was bad but even a tropical storm in my opinion would be the worse case for the marshes. instead of them being completly submerged by the story surge the wave action along with the oil will kill the marsh.

I guess I am going to finish my packing over the weekend.



posted on Jun, 25 2010 @ 07:35 PM
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Storm Threatens to Disrupt Oil Siphoning

HOUSTON (Reuters) – With a storm threatening to disrupt oil-siphoning efforts at BP Plc's blown-out Gulf of Mexico well, the U.S. Coast Guard on Friday said collection efforts would be suspended five days before the forecast onset of gale-force winds. A tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean could deal a big setback to efforts by BP to contain oil gushing from the well, estimated by the U.S. government at up to 60,000 barrels (2.5 million gallons/9.5 million liters) per day. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, the U.S. government's point man on the oil spill, said it would be necessary five days before gale force winds are forecast to arrive to take down operations involving ships and other equipment siphoning some of the oil spewing from BP's ruptured deep-sea well. During this period, the oil could flow unchecked from the ruptured well into the sea for up to 14 days, Allen said.


Not Good. Not Good At All.



posted on Jun, 25 2010 @ 07:36 PM
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I hope people are not afraid to pray for those in the storm's path, and those in its wake?


It can't hurt, after all.



posted on Jun, 25 2010 @ 07:41 PM
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reply to post by DancedWithWolves
 


Well Like I have been telling everyone on the coast that I know, start packing.

The sad part is I know that once they leave they may not be able to return for some time.

I am Part of the Huricane Response Team in the county Emergency Operations Center. I can tell you for a fact that the people will not me allowed to return to their homes if they get flooded this time due to the HAZMAT risk.

So if you live anywhere on the Gulf Coast you better start packing everything that cannot be replaced. I learned that lesson from Katrina.



posted on Jun, 25 2010 @ 07:46 PM
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There is a good chance TD1 will upgrade to Tropical Storm intensity.

The forecast shows it unlikely to affect the oil spill region.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

But there is another Tropical Wave on the way. 'Tis the season.



posted on Jun, 25 2010 @ 07:55 PM
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reply to post by Phage
 


Yeah I saw the NHC forecast but I also saw the GFS forecast Models and when they are in a general agreement as they curently are it is cause for concern.

I pray they are all wrong and the storm goes in to Belize and dies out over land.

We need more time to prepare.



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