reply to post by Spacedman13
What you hear from the media in Iceland is (consumer) based information, to avoid panic and hysteria, in regards to the public statement made
by our president Ólafur, about the near future eruption of Katla, I’d like to applaud him by telling the world the truth.
Regrettably your President’s choice of words led many to believe that the impending eruption at Katla was going to be within the next few days,
despite the fact that his remark was made on the 20th April just after things had kicked off, and was subsequently reported as ‘news’ nearly a
month later by papers that had run out of things to say and needed to have a little more scaremongering.
While researching through the posts here .......I did not find the subject in which I was looking for, but rather hours of endless posts about
doomsday theories. For those of you who live in Europe.........While we face genocide you face airspace cancelation and maybe -0,5 temperature
dropping, and maybe a lot of ash with fluorine.
Your supposition is not quite correct on both counts.
First, you will find that there are two threads on ATS that discuss Eyjafyoll and Katla in a reasoned manner. These are of course Volcano Watch 2010
and the Eyjafjallajökull Caldera Eruption threads. You will find there are also other threads where the fearmongering has been countered by myself
and others, and the area of Vatnajokull specifically has been pointed out as a potential risk.
Second, you cannot assume that Katla, or any other Icelandic volcano, in the course of eruption will wipe out the Icelandic people as this simply is
not the case. The effect of an eruption in Iceland will depend on the type of eruption and the prevailing winds during the eruption.
In essence the feature of Icelandic volcanoes is that their very large eruptions tend to be more of the fissure eruption and rarely the very explosive
style volcano, with perhaps the exception of Hekla, the most dangerous lady in the arsenal of Icelandic volcanoes.
Wikipedia has defined the Eyja eruption as Pelean/Plinian however I would not agree with that classification and would suggest that a mixture of
Hawaiian/Phreatomagmatic would be closer to the description. I have gone into more detail in the PDF file I shall upload shortly.
Bardabunga is a stratovolcano and could produce an explosive eruption, but Katla, Eyjafjoll and Grimsvotn for example are fissure volcanoes and if the
weather conditions are right the major proportion of the output in terms of tephra and gas could be headed to Scandinavia/Northern Europe rather than
within Iceland itself. Yes I know Laki killed 25% of the Icelandic population, but it did a bit more damage than that in Europe!
You will not read anything like I’m about to write in any kind of news media as this information is somewhat terrifying and still just a
(theory) from a single individual.
You are correct about the news media, except when they go on a scaremongering spree, but terrifying? No not really. Please do not think I am
belittling your effort, I am not, but all this information is out there if one wishes to go and find it. One of the problems is that your average
punter does not want to go and find it, and would prefer to be spoon fed information by the MSM. Regrettably this also applies to a number of ATS
members as well! By the time I have finished the PDF I think it will paint a far more
worrying picture of the potential of
Icelands volcanic system, but also be aware that this is not your theory alone. I think you would find that most geologists would agree that a) Katla
will go, b) Hekla will go, c) Bargabunga will go, and d) maybe one or two more. The big question is when and as you say later in the post this cannot
be estimated with any great accuracy.
i would like to clarify that even though people see 5-10 small earthquakes with the size of 0,5 to 2, that this is not a indication that it is
going to erupt as these kind of earthquakes around the caldera´s are perfectly normal and happens every week.
I would also like to point out that by far and away the greater bulk of the Eyjafjoll earthquakes were also within this range. The magnitude of the
quakes would actually be expected to be low where magma movement is involved or degassing occurs, or where there is cooling of the magma chamber walls
and/or contact with geothermal fluid, what will increase and be an indicator is the frequency of the quakes and the amplitude of the harmonic tremor,
especially in the 0.5 to 1 Hz range (normally red on the Vedur plots
If Katla was to produce a VEI 5 eruption, then yes that would be 10 times the volume of the Eyjafjoll eruption, however that does NOT mean that the
force of the eruption would be 10 times greater. I think the term VEI is unfortunate as the word explosivity creates the feeling of force in most
people’s minds. It would have been far better if it had been called the Volcanic Ejection Index. [God bless the USGS for that little problem]
(The volcano Esjuföll is a volcano in the central of our largest iceglacier Vatnajökull, this volcano has never erupted in our time but it
was thought that it produced a huge glacier meltwater outburst in 1927, the caldera of this volcano is estimated to be 40km2 wide and therefor 4 times
the size of Katla´s caldera)
This volcano has been flagged. See this comment in
Please do read the comment, which I flagged
on the Volcano Watch thread
back on the 27th April. It was made by Jon Friman and if he is concerned then so am I.
OK, I will skip the list of eruptions in Iceland as most people will probably be aware of these, and am running out of space here. I will move on to
your part about Hengill.
Seing as the goverment has been drilling into the Hengill area to be able to use the steam that comes from it, they have been tapping into the
area for quite some time now. As from what i have read steam like that is produced with lava setteling into a chamber below and therefor couses
pressure and let´s off the steam. The area reaches over 100km and is only 50km away from the main capital reykjarvík.This type of system is somewhat
the same as the Láki system that erupted violently in 1783 wich killed over 25% of our population and 50% of our livestock and is believed to have
coused over 2 million deaths in europe. And that system is in the middle of our country, not 50km away.
First of all Hengill (and Hekla too) is the other side of the mid Atlantic ridge from Katla et al so they are on areas spreading in opposite
directions. It is located at the Hengill triple junction where the oblique Reykjanes Peninsula rift zone, the Western Volcanic rift zone, and the
South Iceland Seismic transform zone meet. If you find the description by John Search (see Volcano Live link below) you will note that it states:
Over 80,000 small earthquakes occurred at the volcano between 1994 and 1998. The largest earthquake occurred on 4th June 1998 with a magnitude 5.1
event at a previously unmapped fault 3.7 km due west of the uplift center. On 13th November 1998, a magnitude 5.0 earthquake occurred 12 km south of
the June event.
Right as of now there are 26 quakes registered. I will not list them.
Here is the link
I would also like to say that is a known fact that extraction of hydrothermal power leads to increased seismic activity as evidenced at Berne
(Switzerland anyway), Mexico and of course Iceland itself.
Is it possible that given the delay on the most active volcano´s in iceland that the magma is forming elsewhere, like in the Hengill system
wich is still refered to as active. Could this mean that there´s a eruption about to happen under this area in wich there has been about 80% more
activity then in the last 3 years,(couldn´t find earthquake data going farther back then that)
I think that the later part of your question may be answered since the information above would indicate that the activity in the area is much less
than has been noted before.
You might also find my response to questions about Iceland
Then again you may not
Updates from the NVI of the 1996 activity
Volcanoes of Iceland
John Search - Volcano Live
Types of volcanic eruption
Volcanic Explosivity Index
[edit on 24/6/2010 by PuterMan]