New Caribbean Disturbance 93L Is A Major Concern. Tropical Storm By Weekend.

Hey peoples,
Every year around this time many Network Admins like myself tend to keep up on the weather in the tropics for early warning of possible storms like Hurricanes. Living on the Treasure Coast of Florida will do that.

This year being especially important with the BP oil disaster.

Well Jeff Masters from WeatherUnderground.com (a very reputable weather site for all things super geeky) in blog today talked about this disturbance and its likely progression into a tropical storm by the weekend.

Just something of an early warning I thought I would share with you all.

*Remember that all storms in the Caribbean can changes immeasurably from day to day so just keep vigilant and for heaven sakes don't panic.

Direct Link To Jeff Masters Blog.







[edit on 21-6-2010 by AllexxisF1]

[edit on 21-6-2010 by AllexxisF1]

Thanks for the post!



This will be something to watch... I take off for my Caribbean cruise in 13 days... so hopefully it doesn't stall :-)

I just got back from my honeymoon in the Caribbean a few weeks ago. Good luck Mate and I hope it does not wreck your vacation.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVECOULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

(Sorry for the all caps, but this is an exact quote from NOAA)

Well here is Jeff Master's forecast on Invest 93L

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Wednesday afternoon, with Thursday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air absent, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Thursday, and it is a bit of a surprise to me that the computer models have been reluctant to develop 93L. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 93L, and the ECMWF model doesn't develop 93L until after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico in a about a week. The current (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicts 93L will be a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in five days; its previous run had 93L as a major hurricane in the Gulf. Given all this model reluctance and the current disorganization of 93L, I give the storm a low (less than 20% chance) of becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 6 knots (7 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. early next week. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in the oil spill region. This is the solution of the Canadian GEM model. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF model. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and some of the models predict this shear will remain over the Gulf over the next 7 - 10 days. However, other models predict that this band of high shear will retreat northwards and leave the Gulf nearly shear-free. The long-term fate of 93L remains very murky. My main concerns at this point are the potential for 3 - 6 inches of rain in Haiti over the next two days, and the possibility 93L could become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Good God, Mother Nature sure isn't wasting any time. Is there any chance this thing will dissipate, or at least avoid the Gulf?

Anything can happen when we are talking about weather. Living here in Florida you learn to pay attention but not to panic, because it can literally come down to hours and everything can change.

However you look for the basics, does this storm system have tons of fuel available (warm moist air), yes. Will it run into obstacles like mountain ranges and high altitude wind shear, this one doesn't.

So yes the odds of this system progressing is pretty good.

More's the pity.