METHANE Leak causes 3.5 X the daily NYC emission rate to be released in the atmosphere each day!!!!!

So BP says that as much as 100,000 barrels of whatever may be leaking each day...

That's 4 Million gallons...


However..... is this 100,000 barrels only oil or is it other things such as methane as well? Is this 100,000 barrels of (oil + methane + other gasses)? Or just 100,000 barrels of oil...

The reason this is significant, is because BP has already said that the mixture coming out is 50% petroleum, and 50% methane and other gasses

Spewing from the ocean floor a mile deep is a mixture that, according to BP, is roughly half methane and other gases by mass and half petroleum compounds

And if this 100,000 barrels only accounts for the oil, then that means that there is another 4 million gallons of methane being released each day AS WELL!!!

If it DOES include the methane, then that's still ~2Million Gallons of Methane being leaked each day... of which 50% of that is making it to the surface because it's covered with oil, so it will not dissolve as easily in the seawater...

Though BP's guy Valentine says that the methane will dissipate, Scientists who specialize in methane however state that this isn't as true for methane bubbles covered in oil.. upwards of 50% which starts at the leak will make it to the surface...

So we either have 1 Million gallons of methane or 2 million gallons making it to the surface each day, depending on whether or not the 100,000 barrels includes the methane or not.

Either way thats A LOT OF METHANE!!!!!!!

Methane is 23 X more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2

EPA.gov link on methane

Why is there concern about methane emissions?
Methane is 23 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (over a 100-year period).

REAL GLOBAL WARMING!!!!!!!


Update: At 100k bpd, about 3.5 X the daily emissions for the entire New York metro area is now reaching the surface.


The following is from a post later on this page, but is relevant to the update...

-------------------------------
So when we had 5000 barrels a day as the estimate, BP said that it was leaking about 15 million cubic feet of methane each day...


If we look at the EPA units conversion tool we see that:

1 cubic foot (CF) methane (CH4) = .04246 pounds of CH4
15 million CF CH4 x .04246 = 636,900 pounds CH4 = 318.5 metric tons CH4
318.5 metric tons CH4 = 6,066.9 metric tons CO2 equivalent a day

Now this is still using the 5000 bpd estimate... At this point the total leaked is more than a third of daily CO2 emissions for the entire New York metro area.

But here we are now with an estimate of 100,000 bpd which is 20 X this number which puts us at around 7 X the entire new York metro area...

Now... Half of that is reaching the surface cause it's drenched in oil...

So we basically have had added daily emissions equivalent to the over night appearance of 3.5 X that of the entire new York metro area...

I wonder if that could have a warming effect?

What do you think?



[edit on 21-6-2010 by HunkaHunka]

if this is true...
well...
good luck making it to 2012, eh?

Human activity produces 27 billion tons of CO2 per year
CO2 has a mass density of 1.977 g/L (gaseous form)
I barrel = 159 liters
CO2 mass/barrel = 314 g/b
1 ton = 907,000 grams
27 billion tons = 24493988000540428 grams
Divide by 314 g/b and we have 78,006,331,211,912 barrels of CO2 emited per year

Divide that number by 23 to get the equivalent (according to this supposed impact on the environment figure) barrels of methane gives us:
3,391,579,617,909 or about 3.4 trillion barrels of methane gas. At a rate of 100,000 barrels per day that means it would take 33,915,796 days for this leak, at that rate, to equal the effect of the CO2 output by the whole world in only 365 days (AKA 1 year)

I don't believe in anthropogenic global warming, but if I did I'm thinking these numbers would tell me that even at the worst case scenario, even with methane being 23 times worse than CO2, methane gas and some spike in global warming is the least of the worries about this oil leak.

[edit on 21-6-2010 by burdman30ott6]

reply to post by burdman30ott6


Well...

So when we had 5000 barrels a day as the estimate, BP said that it was leaking about 15 million cubic feet of methane each day...


If we look at the EPA units conversion tool we see that:

1 cubic foot (CF) methane (CH4) = .04246 pounds of CH4
15 million CF CH4 x .04246 = 636,900 pounds CH4 = 318.5 metric tons CH4
318.5 metric tons CH4 = 6,066.9 metric tons CO2 equivalent a day

Now this is still using the 5000 bpd estimate... At this point the total leaked is more than a third of daily CO2 emissions for the entire New York metro area.

But here we are now with an estimate of 100,000 bpd which is 20 X this number which puts us at around 7 X the entire new York metro area...

Now... Half of that is reaching the surface cause it's drenched in oil...

So we basically have had added daily emissions equivalent to the over night appearance of 3.5 X that of the entire new York metro area...

I wonder if that could have a warming effect?

What do you think?



[edit on 21-6-2010 by HunkaHunka]

EDIT: PLEASE IGNORE... SEE BELOW

reply to post by HunkaHunka


NYC annual CO2 emission (from your link) = 6,030,000,000 metric tone
Divided by 365 days in a year = 16,520,548 metric tons per day.

6,066.9 CH4 in CO2 equivalency units per day (original BP estimate) multiplied by a factor of 20 = 121,338 Yons per day.

16,520,548 divided by 121,338=136

That is, the Macondo well, even if the original estimate is now an estimate of 20 times greater only puts out the equivalent of one hundred and thirty sixth the amount of CO2 as New York CIty per day. That is assuming 100% reaches the surface, BTW. The number becomes even smaller if we start taking into account the percentage which dissolves into the water.

(I'm not trying to sugar coat this spill in any way. It is so horrifically bad and so reprehensible, what has been done to the ocean... but I feel that any exxageration, even a well intended and mistaken one, actually opens up cracks in a united front against this madness.)

[edit on 21-6-2010 by burdman30ott6]

reply to post by burdman30ott6


Oh I agree about the united front of data, which is why I think you need to check your math...

Originally posted by burdman30ott6
reply to post by HunkaHunka

 

NYC annual CO2 emission (from your link) = 6,030,000,000 metric tone
 

You've got 6 billion....it's 6 million from the article...

The listing of the counties includes the largest city in each county. The numbers are for millions of tons of carbon emitted per year.

...

Suffolk, N.Y. (New York metro area) — 6.030

1 NYC year = ~6 million tons (from my link)
 1 NYC day = ~16,000 tons a day

1 day methane leakage at the leak site per day = ~6,000 tons a day if we used the 5k bpd estimate.... 


that's almost a third of the NYC daily emissions

Now let's mark that up a factor of 20 to adjust for the change in estimate from 5k to 100k

6,000 tons x 20 = 120,000 tons a day from the leak site....

50% of this makes it to the surface because it's drenched in oil....

60,000 tons a day make it to the surface....
NYC daily is only ~16,000 a day....

Around 3.75 x the amount of daily NYC emissions are escaping each day...


I'll ask again, do you think that is a negligible amount? 

[edit on 21-6-2010 by HunkaHunka]

This could be why they are stalling sucker barges and other civi and state efforts to assist in the "clean up" offshore. To hide the real problem thats much more serious than trashing the gulf and oceans of the world.. as if there could be anything worse.

I really resent them releasing info selectively. I am offended that TPTB feel we are all so stupid we cant process true information... ugh. A little bit of truth would suit this administration well.

reply to post by Dixie70


Well there are a lot of reasons they don't want folks out there... For one they are burning turtles on a daily basis...

There's another thread on that somewhere

They are trying to stop the next ICE AGE from starting.

This is very clever. The whole global warming issues and taxes will rear the heads again as the methane released will cause some warming.

The end isn't nigh but the powers that be are definatly in control.

Originally posted by HunkaHunka
reply to post by Dixie70

 

Well there are a lot of reasons they don't want folks out there... For one they are burning turtles on a daily basis...

There's another thread on that somewhere

Im from La and have family down there still. Folks arent fooled. They have been asking where are all of the dead sea animals since the 2nd week of this. The cover-up of the kill off isnt very smart when these folks have lived on the gulf for generations and know how the sea and animals behave.. and what happens when there are disruptions.
I'd read about chopping the birds heads off.. I wonder what they are looking for or hiding thats in the brain tissue?? I may be off here, but I see no other reason to lop heads off rather than taking the whole carcass for inspection.
I had hoped to take my Northern born kids back to my hometown of N.O. one day. Katrina ruined that temporarily... but this leak nailed the coffin shut. I have loved ones who have no idea what to do now with the gulf hurting like this. Many of our livelihoods ( and entire way of life) are directly tied to the gulf. I just wish they'd let folks know evacs are planned if it is true. The anxiety over this is really damaging folks and families.

reply to post by Dixie70


I sympathize with you and your plight... taking the lil ones back to where you are from is an important part of a narrative...

I'm not sure any of us really knows what this looks like on the other side of a fix though... so maybe it wont be as bad... but then again... who knows...

reply to post by HunkaHunka



You're right. I saw a comma instead of a decimal and was reading it as 6,030 Million Metric Tons rather than 6.030 million metric tons.
Very sorry about that and have edited my above statement.

reply to post by burdman30ott6


I was doing it at around 4am myself.. so I completely understand!



Now the real question is will this have any real impact on natural warming...

I asked on the fragile earth forum, and there doesn't seem to be a consensus yet...

I would say that typically... human caused global greenhouses come out at a gradual rate...something the system can accommodate... but adding 3.5 X NYC's emissions over night for 60 days now....

I'm wondering what if any real impact that could have....

I agree though that the OIL is in itself going to cause the most immediate and harrowing damage to our wonderful Gulf... I was just shocked to realize how much Methane was actually making it to the surface...

Also keep in mind, that since 50% of oily methane can reach the surface, theres another 3.5 X NYC's daily amount now being absorbed by the ocean as well... displacing oxygen...

Which represents .014% of the volume of methane that is currently getting into the atmosphere from natural and manmade sources already based upon the IPCC estimates. Certainly an organization that would not underestimate anything concerning greenhouse gas. Of course that estimate assumes the gas is 100% methane, which it isn't, It's probably closer to 70 mole % methane with other constituents, including nitrogen, carbon dioxide and heavier hydrocarbon components.

reply to post by billyjack


Thanks billyjack for the contribution...


So does that mean the methane released in to the atmosphere is negligible? Perhaps causing potential issues locally when birds fly through or something, but other than that nothing?

Gulp. How did I miss this one before? Aren't methane bubbles what makes ships disappear in the Bermuda triangle or something? In any case, this is a huge, huge number. The displacing oxygen part is going to wreak havoc on wildlife and plant life. And probably human life too, particularly for the elderly and those with chronic conditions. What a flippin mess.

reply to post by HunkaHunka



Anyone got a match..........

Originally posted by IanC99000310
They are trying to stop the next ICE AGE from starting.

This is very clever. The whole global warming issues and taxes will rear the heads again as the methane released will cause some warming.

The end isn't nigh but the powers that be are definatly in control.

Reading through the thread, a thought came to mind and you posted the thought. They are trying to stop the next Ice Age. I don't know why I thought that. Could you elaborate of what brings you to this?

reply to post by mantic


I think he means that it's intentional global warming as an attempt to stop a massive ice age...



Interesting theory... Not sure i buy it but interesting nonetheless