reply to post by Gold_Bug
Let's estimate the flow rate using Darcy's equation a for fluid flow through porous media. This equation is the proven method for calculating flow
rate from a sand pack.
Q=7.082 X K X H X (Pe-Pw)/(V X Bo X Ln(Re/Rw))
Q= flow rate in Stock tank barrels per day
K= permeability of reservoir rock - darcies
H= thickness of productive formation-feet
Pe= pressure at external boundary of reservoir-psi
Pw= pressure at the sand face in the wellbore-psi
V= viscosity of flowing fluid- centipoise
Bo= formation volume factor- reservoir barrels/stock tank barrels
Re= Radius to the constant reservoir pressure-feet
Rw= radius of the wellbore- feet
Pe= 13,000 psi(calculated from mudweight)
Estimates from doing this calculation for 30 years:
k=.1 darcy at this depth that estimate is probably high
Pw=7000 psi Density of oil 7#/gallon & ocean depth of 5000'
V= 1.0 cp
Bo= 2.0 res/st
Re= 2000' ( this gets into steady state & psuedo steady stae behaviors in fluid flow-so this number is "anal extraction", but is behind at log term
so does not have major effect on answer)
This results in around 18,000 bbls stock tank barrels per day. Big unknown is permeability. I have never seen a measured permeability above 1 darcy in
formations below 10,000'. So if we double the 100 md used to 200 md then the maximum flow would be 36,000 stock tank bbls/day. Unless someone can get
a better permeability, this is about what we are seeing.