I think it's a good idea to look at the possible after effects of this disaster. Like you, I sense that this will combine with other influences in
culture/society and stimulate many to make whatever changes they can in theiur lives to step away from oil/gas where possible.
However, I also see further things to consider, for instance, this event seems to me to change other issues about energy use/access globally, not just
the USA. After the (initial) financial collapse, I sensed a change/swing in the balance of global power, not just power, but projected
demand/consumption/markets. Also changes in the USAs ability to dominate and maintain effective control of oil/gas supply (increasingly sourced from
overseas). Look at the problems BP is having in Russia, and how China is securing supply from all over the place, how Russia is chasing polar oil
and the ME, Afghanistan and South America are chosing China not the USA increasingly as their key partner for oil/gas export.
There's the rub, I don't think the M.E./African/South American/Russian oil exporters neccessarily will place the USA or solving it's oil/gas supply
chain needs at the top of their priority list at the moment, partly due to cold economic supply/demand and partly down to historic and political
relations. Indeed I think in many ways they would welcome the USA losing it's influence and ability to interfere or compete in their global
Whilst I believe that Peak Oil is a global issue, perhaps more pressingly, particularly in light of this event, the USA may be first to suffer as it
now depends so heavily on imports and so many other forces are chasing/securing the same supplies for their own, and strategic partners demands.
The USA may not be alone here, Europe too could be caught up, but the USA is perhaps disadvantaged in that it's military reach/activities may be seen
as a higher threat that could do with being diminished to expedite their own plans/needs?
This year, there have already been threads suggesting that the USAs income from the $ being the main oil trading currency may be under threat and
challenged by other players, including China and Russia. Were this Gulf event to be followed by further weakening of the USA import/supply chain,
I'd imagine that it would come under more pressure.
As another post by IgnoranceIsntBlisss "Dear Oil SCREAMongers: REALITY CHECK!" link to
outlines, oil is used for far more things than just heat and transport, so a redirecting of oil from the USA towards other countries
could have far broader implications I suspect?
What about alternatives for all those other chemicals/derivatives (fertiilizer etc... included)?