I am sorry to report well is crippled down hole very long read

reply to post by switching yard


They said that last week too...that by this week it would be down to a trickle, yet they are revising estimates of barrels leaked per day upwards to 60,000.

Aside from the relief wells so many seem to be counting on, it seems to be they're down to the options at the bottom of the barrel, those that might be trickier to implement or less likely to succeed (if logic applies in this situation, which I'm doubting at this point anyway), so I'm not buying their optimism at this point.

Op I was interested in your posting & since I am a petroleum engineer and have drilled, completed and operated oil & gas wells for over 30 years I am responding to offer a few facts to the interested readers. Under Peak Oil I have written rather lengthy posts that could provide additional detail.

A few facts:

1)BP reported rat hole mud of 14 #/gallon. If the mud weight balanced the formation pressure then the bottomhole pressure is around 13,000 psi. Matt Simmons' hysterical raving about 40,000-50,000 psi is ludicrous.
2) A "top kill" is never easy. When I've taken a kick I seldom get concerned as long as the pipe rams are working & I have drillpipe/tubing in the hole at least halfway to the inflow. The problem with top kill is it can't be pumped at high rates. The oil & gas & other fluid flowing on a top kill have to go somewhere, so as to not fracture the earth above the area of fluid entry the pressure must be kept from exceeding the fracture gradient as well as the burst strength of the protection casing. Ideally the oil is pumped back into the formation it came from. The oil comes from the tiny pore spaces between sand grains. Therefore Darcy's equation controls at what rate I can pump into the well. In many instances the pressures increase near the wellbore where they are higher than the formation pressure(supercharging). If this happens then when the pumps are shut down, it will even flow back the wieghted mud & you have to start all over. Bottom kills are infinitely simpler.
3) I don't know about the casing problems, but the top kill looked to me like most of the mud was flowing out into the ocean. So if 1 bbl goes down the hole versus 100 into the ocean and we are pumping into the 9 5/8" X 7" annulus to get heavy mud to 13,000' is around 350 bbls. Therefore it would take 35,000 bbls of mud to have a chance. If the surface pressure is not dropping indicating that mud was going down hole then it was over. By the way the 'Junk shot" was not to seal the wellbore only an attempt to seal the leaks in an attempt to get less mud into the ocean and more staying in the well. It obviously didn't work. The high rates they were pumping was only an effort to create higher pressure through hydraulic horsepower to overcome the surface flowing pressure of the oil, not necessarily to help in the kill procedure.
4) Once the relief wells intersect this wellbore at depth, even if there is a casing split at 1000', it is a relatively easy calculation to increase the mud weight to make up for the loss of the column. By the way mud is brown, barite is grey and generally doesn't affect the color of the mud.
5) Even if the well craters, the relief wells will still be able to kill.

The overall disaster is due to the fact that we now have an entire generation of petroleum engineers that have been trained by accountants. Their entire job performance since 1986 has been measured by how much money they saved rather than if they produced oil without killing anyone. Much of what I do is design a job that avoids disaster. To an accountant, when we don't have a problem, then it was an unnecessary expenditure and money was wasted all the way to the point that the next guy doesn't take into consideration and it ends up costing 10 fold what the preventative measures cost.

I was flabbergasted when I found out that they did not circulate bottoms up prior to performing the cement job. Standard procedure during a production casing job entails having a static hole for 24-48 hrs. The well is made static & we start pulling out the drill pipe and laying it all down. Then we pick up the production casing & started running it in. The process means that we have not seen what's happening in the hole for a long time. During this time hopefully only small volumes of oil & gas seep into the hole, since we have it overbalanced with heavy mud. Nevertheless when we land on bottom, we kick in the pumps and circulate all the fluid from the annulus---cont.

My rule of thumb is I will always pump a volume equal to twice the annular volume, look at the fluid to make sure it does not have an excess amount of oil or gas. If its still squirrley then we continue to circulate and adjust the mud weight to get it under control Cement will not set up if its moving generally, just like the drums turning on a concrete truck. It is a blatent rookie mistake to have not circulated the well to get fluid to surface before puming the cement, even more idiotic to not see the bottomhole fluid before displacing the mud from the riser.

Two other things I've seen in the MSM about the blowout. They didn't run enough centralizers. I run centralizers, but in reality they are probably gone by the time I get them on bottom because they are very flimsy bow springs and are scaped off before they get there. I dropped casing once & had to pull it all back out & only found pieces of the centralizers left on the casing. Secondly, nobody forgoes running a Cement Bond Log. I don't care what BP says, they didn't run the CBL because the well was blowing out. According to my sources the Schlumberger wireline crew declared a hazardous enviroment and left 4 hours before it caught on fire.

This proves to me that the Pricks around the conference table in Houston sent a rookie engineer out there. Had I been there and they told me I didn't need to get bottoms up the way this well was acting, I would have used common oil field terms to say "Stick it, I going to Houma with the Schlumberger hands & have a beer."

reply to post by billyjack


Thank you, I've been dropping in on this post since it started. Yours was an amazing post, I almost think you need your own thread?

Seriously, I haven't seen quite that level of insider insight and detail on any of the other posts - this one being also of memorable quality.

I hope at the very least your views get represented in any formal (government) talks or hearings...perhaps you should contact some of the local businesses to see who is representing their claims?

What most folks do not know is how oil is extracted in the first place. It is called water replacement....To get oil to come out they pump massive amounts of water into the well replacing the oil. This is how and why the oil is gushing out at such a rapid speed. There has to be somewhere along the ocean floor a rupture that the ocean itself is pouring it's massive weight in. Water in oil out. There is no stopping this black beast.....Sorry, game over! Not even a nuke will end this nightmare.....

reply to post by sylph16


I understand where you`re coming from....God save us ....or maybe we don`t desreve it .....
but i believe that Humans, aswell as every other living thing on this planet, does deserve to be saved by God or whoever.

The ones that don`t deserve saving are the ones who have caused this catastrophy and every other one.
The greedy corporations and governments who`ve been so quick in lining their pockets, that they couldn`t care less about the rest of humanity and the beauty that this planet beholds.

If not for the sake of humans, then for the sake of this beautiful planet.....
God help us.

reply to post by cyberzee


That's what I'm trying to decipher now. There seems to be increases in outflow and they keep increasing their 'govt observation' of output. Even at 60,000 bbl/day is still 2.77 million gallons, but there is more than oil coming out of that pipe. Tens of millions of cubic feet of VOCs are escaping also which isn't factored into the MSM leak capacity. You can find some air quality test results here.

I've also been reading up on the assorted micro-plates and continental plates in the Gulf area. This link explains in great detail about the formation and geologic properties of the Gulf area. There are about half a dozen microplates under the gulf, and interaction between these plates may have been accelerated by our tinkering with these volatile seams. In those areas, we also find that atop a firm bedrock is the salt layer (oil) and the softer silt seabed. On top of the firm bedrock are the salt domes, that plume up the softer seabed (like a kind of non-magmatic volcano). From what I've read, these salt dome develop their own fault lines as shown from this NOAA Link.

From there it gets confusing, but one can begin to see the potential of an accident waiting to happen. It would seem logical that many of these salt domes are interconnected, meaning they share migratory channels, as illustrated here

So at this point, what would be the benefit of closing off the well if there is collateral damage in the salt cavern? They have their own fault lines, and at this point, do we know if those fault lines have become pivotal in the movement of other plates. And with these decays in fault line stability, we cannot rule out possibilities of undersea landslides as huge pockets cave in due to varying pressurization shifts from chamber to chamber.
So, what will happen next? I don't know personally, but it may add some more insight to the thread, and could explain why they really don't want to plug it off or send an explosive down there.

My sources, which I will not disclose, say that the purpose of the "spill" is to create scarcity as there is far more oil than is profitable from current demand. However, this one got away, and we won't be stopping it until the entire reservoir is emptied. Sorry folks, mark these words.

edit for crate - create

[edit on 6/16/2010 by Matyas]

Just found this series of vids on Global Research. BP admits that if they cap the well, a major blowout would be eminent, and it is now suggested that the casing is gone.

Link here

billyjack, thanks for adding your expertise and insight to this thread. Given what you know, what would you rate the probability of a relief well success by the end of summer? The pres last night acted as though he was real confident in a fix by summer's end, but I don't know if this was just BP hype to try and quiet the fears or what.
Thanks--

[edit on 16-6-2010 by whatsup]

billyjack and/or OP,

In my opinion, this is the best ATS thread to follow to get the real deal on what went wrong and what they are doing. I find myself in a very steep learning curve because prior to this disaster, I didn't know anything about oil drilling.

Can either or both of you write a brief summary in terms the average guy could understand about what exactly went wrong due to negligence and what the best approach might be to get this under control ASAP?

I know you have laid it out in technical terms, but there are a lot of us out here intensely interested in your insights but we are not familiar with some of the technical terms and insights.

A brief rundown for the layman would be most helpful. If it's not possible to describe it in a more easy to understand way, I understand. After all, it is a very technical business you're in.

I've starred both of you. You guys are my primary source for what is real.

Specific questions...

What is supercharging?

Am I understanding that the relief wells procedure will be to pump heavy mud down through these relief wells and stop up the main well?

Could you break down the following in layman's terms?...

"I was flabbergasted when I found out that they did not circulate bottoms up prior to performing the cement job. Standard procedure during a production casing job entails having a static hole for 24-48 hrs. The well is made static & we start pulling out the drill pipe and laying it all down. Then we pick up the production casing & started running it in. The process means that we have not seen what's happening in the hole for a long time. During this time hopefully only small volumes of oil & gas seep into the hole, since we have it overbalanced with heavy mud. Nevertheless when we land on bottom, we kick in the pumps and circulate..."

Also, in layman's terms, what was the rookie mistake?

What does 'circulate bottoms up' mean?

Thanks, you guys, a lot of us out here want to get this straight.


[edit on 16-6-2010 by switching yard]

[edit on 16-6-2010 by switching yard]

[edit on 16-6-2010 by switching yard]

After reading through this thread, I don't know what is more annoying:

1)Government and BP can't get THEIR STORY straight

OR

2)Government and BP have given up before they have even started!

The same government that allowed BP to drill for ABIOTIC OIL 50 miles offshore WITHOUT ensuring BP had serious contigency plans for such unprecendented disasters.

The same government that allowed BP to use the extremely hazardous corexit, but if anyone else uses it YOU GO TO JAIL! Mom and pop rigs are fair game(easy targets) but not big business who contributes campaign money?

The same government that is blocking media coverage.

Then they tell you "sorry, but..............."

I wonder what would have happened if this leak happened off the british islands and threatened their entire livelihood, not to mention their health?Would the british tolerate such apathy from their government or would they storm downing street and stone them to death??? Just saying.....

This is very disconcerting, can we get a little bit of hope?

Thank you
So the well is going to blow out the casing and bop and flow unrestrained into gulf.
The relief wells will bottom kill when they reach depth.
The down hole pressure is 13,000 psi.

They do not displace oil with water to get the oil extracted. It naturally, undr pressure seeks the path of least resistance.

Capping the well head of the bop any tighter will increase the speed of erosion.

What if any pressure loss would you estimate have occurred down hole?

This tiny hole into the formation is insufficient to cause plates to move or other doomsday predictions, tsunamis, evacuatiob, etc.

The escape of more or less oil/gas is a good indicator of production.

Can they still measure pressure at the wellhead? If so approximately what is the flow rate of this well/formation?

Did the down hole pipe burst before or after the top kill shot?

reply to post by jeffrybinladen


If it gets THAT bad, then I say it's time to call in a nuclear strike like the Russians used. Can't make it worse than an essentially unstoppable "mega gusher" of which nothing else can hope to stop it until the reservoir is depleted, some 50 MILLION barrels. (For comparison, the Gulf War/Kuwaiti oil spill if 1991, the biggest in the world, released "only" about 10M barrels. This would be five times worse. Even if only 1/2 the reservoir is needed to stop the pressure, that'd still be 25Mbbl, 2.5x worse than the '91 superspill.) If the damage is so bad the relief wells can't stop it, then use a standoff nuclear blast to try and crush the vent.


[edit on 16-6-2010 by mike3]

I have a question.

Doesn't this oil 'technically' belong to the US people/government?

If so, then shouldn't the people getting paid ten bucks an hour to gather it up for bp to process be able to claim it as their own property and sell it to bp at a potentially higher rate?

Should the us government be able to just collect it and sell it back to whoever? IS the stuff just floating on the surface still process-able? There's at least 50 million gallons of crude floating around. why should bp get it? They lost it. That's OUR oil. Pay up.

Sorry, random question. Appologies if its too off topic.

edited to add all the previous post's questions are wonderful. i await answers and thank everyone for the information they share.

[edit on 16-6-2010 by justadood]

So, what happens when that BOP thangy breaks off, tips over, and those well pipes come shooting out of that well, allowing a full eroding flow of oil and gas to come spewing out? Hum? Anyone want to take a guess? Should I pay next months rent, or forget about it and use the money for a farewell party instead?

Confirmed: Gulf Oil [leak] BOP Leaning

My husband found this clip on facebook. I hope the link works so you all can see it and comment on it.

Rachel Maddow- The more spills change_ the more they stay the same
www.youtube.com

Doesn't look like a link. Interesting how she intersperses news footage from an off shore spill in the GOM in 1979 with today's spill.

[edit on 17-6-2010 by missvicky]

They claim they're going to "control" 90% of what's coming up?

Official numbers are now 35 000-60 000 barrels a day and BP is able to collect (their words, not mines) 15 000 barrels a day with their wonderful cap.

My guess is that with those 60 000 barrels we are getting closer to a real number. That's of course my opinion.
12 500 barrels collected a day would already be an achievement till they can bottom kill the well. 15 000 peek but they won't be able to keep that number up all the time.

With the actual numbers we we still have between 30 000-45 000 barrels going into the Gulf daily.

Another cap to burn 90% of, let us be kind with BP and the US Government, 30 000 barrels of oil a day at the surface till they bottom kill the well?
That's a hell of a plan.

We also have to pray that the situation won't get worse there and no other "upgrade" of real numbers coming weeks.

What we already know is that it won't get better below there, but more issues and crap can still be expected.

Ever seen what sand (major composition of mud) does to whatever material at the high speed/high pressure? (13 000+ psi at the bottom without taking into account what's beneath the mouth)

Good luck BP with your bottom kill and I'll pray the day it starts. Not joking here as you'll need all the help you can get and that certainly includes prayers from 6 billion humans on this planet.

reply to post by Divinorumus


Nevermind, I thought your link above wasn't working but it must have been my connection. Carry on..

[edit on 17-6-2010 by whatsup]