SCI/TECH: Satellites Record Weakening North Atlantic Current

Is it reasonable to consider that the global naval deployments are not war games at all and that the navy is in fact conducting a massive reasearch study of the worlds oceans? It would be interesting to hear comments.

Excellent observation df1! NASA may have sounded enough of an alarm that the US is scrambling and deploying government buoys around the Atlantic (north and south). It would take quite a project to get the kind of coverage needed. Plus to pull samples from various depths. And if they felt time was about up they might be trying to get all the data at once. Something not possible for normal research groups.

The following quote from a science journal will help shed a little more light on this topic...

Research suggests that this circulation process may have fluctuated or even stopped many times in Earth's distant past, and that it is sensitive to moderate increases in temperature or influxes of fresh water. The cold, salty water that sinks in the far North Atlantic Ocean will not sink if it becomes a little bit warmer or a little bit less salty - and the change could happen in a matter of decades.

"This system does not respond in what we call a linear manner,"

"Once you start putting on the brakes, this circulation pattern could slow down faster and faster and eventually stop altogether."

The paradox, the scientists say, is that the same greenhouse effect that might make the Earth warmer, overall, could have the opposite effect on much of Europe by slowing or shutting down the warm ocean circulation patterns on which it depends.

"Most, but not all, coupled general circulation model projections of the 21st century climate show a reduction in the strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases," the researchers write in their report in "Nature." "If the warming is strong enough and sustained long enough, a complete collapse cannot be excluded."

Fresh water does affect ocean currents many experts believe. And is a part of a natural Earth cycle... The human factors such as polution or production of green house gas is still an unknown, However we may have contributed to the cycle... and the results could mean a very rapid climate change in the not so distant future.

As for the hurricanes being more masive or stronger.. it could end up being extremely calm... It is the extreme weather that shows the impact of slowing ocean currents... and those extreme weather events are growing.

Stay Tuned!

Gazz


[edit on 6-7-2004 by UM_Gazz]

Look at this SST image. There is a large pool of colder water in the middle of the tropical atlantic with a small area of temps down toward the mid 70's. Without a tropical storm or hurricane in the area what could cause this kind of temperature dive? This wasn't like this a day or two ago.

Originally posted by Outland

Originally posted by Muaddib
Outland, let me ask you. what exactly makes it so that there is an exchange between cold water from the north and warm water from the Ecuador? How does the exchange occur and why? Let me give you a hint, salinity.

That is the same as saying that if the oceans had no salinity, there would be no ocean currents... which is absurd.

Outland, sometimes you do sound like you are a knowledgeable person about climate, but it is statements as the one above that makes me realize you know less about the North Atlantic Current than you like to believe.

The North Atlantic current/Gulf Stream affects and influences the weather in northern Europe, and if it keeps slowing down and stops, it will have global consequences, not just in Europe.


Perhaps this image above can help you to sort out your confusion on how the North Atlantic current flows and why. The above image shows the ocean Conveyor Belt, where you can partially see the North Atlantic Current. It is at the top left corner of the drawing. The drawing can be found at this link.
www.windows.ucar.edu...=/earth/Water/deep_ocean.html&edu=high

The warm water from the Ecuator flows north in the surface, which its helped in its way north by the winds. The cold water from the Arctic, because of its mixture of being cold and salty, makes it dense enough to be able to sink and this allows for the exchange of cold and warm waters and the mild climate in the northern regions of the globe. If the cold water which is fed by the north is not salty enough, it won't be able to sink, and this in turn will stop the North Atlantic current, which will make regions in the north a lot colder.

Salinity does play a major role on the exchange of cold and warm water in the conveyor belt in general, and on the North Atlantic Current, which is part of the conveyor belt. If the cold waters that move south from the Arctic were not salty enough there wouldn't be a conveyor belt at all.

[edit on 6-7-2004 by Muaddib]

The excerpt below can perhaps explain better than me how important salinity is for the conveyor belt, the North Atlantic current, and a mild climate in the northern regions.


" Salinity varies across the oceans; the saltiest water is found in the Persian Gulf, because evaporation rates are high. The least salty regions are near the poles, because melting ice water and precipitation decrease the salinity concentrations. It is a good thing that the oceans are salty because the variations in salinity of the oceans, along with variations in temperature, drive the great ocean currents that transport heat around the globe. The oceans' thermohaline circulation (thermo meaning heat and haline meaning salinity) is one of the major driving forces for the Earth's climate.

A recent study by oceanographers at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution has found that tropical ocean waters have become more salty, while oceans nearer to the North and South Poles have become fresher. The researchers examined salinity measurements taken over recent decades over a region ranging from the tip of Greenland to the tip of South America. They found that surface waters in the tropics became significantly saltier while the oceans in the higher latitudes became less so because warming in the tropical regions increased the amount of evaporation, and therefore the concentration of salts left behind. The increase in evaporation resulted in increases in precipitation in higher latitudes which contributes to the decrease in salinity in those regions. One concern is that the increased freshness of water in the North Atlantic could disrupt the thermohaline circulation because it is in the North Atlantic that water becomes dense enough with salt to sink to the abyss. A significant change in salinity levels could slow the Great Conveyer Belt which could cause the North Atlantic region to cool significantly."

Excerpted from.
www.enviroliteracy.org...

The beautiful graphics supplied by Indy and Muaddib show evidence of a factor not yet discussed. Indy's map is of surface temperature variations - notice the tongue of colder temperatures extending southward from the gap between Baffin Island and northern Quebec. This is the same area where the North Atlantic current begins to submerge as shown by Muaddib's graphic. I feel this represents a huge influx of meltwater from the elsewhere-discussed melting ice cap - low temperature, low salinity. Just what the doctor ordered to bleep up the circulation pattern. My recollection of my college geology classes tells me that in the past, when the current has shut down, it has done so all at once, not gradually. Add this stuff up, and my thinking is that we are in for some cold weather up here. This summer has not even been almost warm so far.

Originally posted by df1
Is it reasonable to consider that the global naval deployments are not war games at all and that the navy is in fact conducting a massive reasearch study of the worlds oceans? It would be interesting to hear comments.

CSGs are not equipped to make any kind of scientific research. Any research ships in the Navy are under the classification of auxiliary. The AGER class hull are Environmental Research Ships, the AGOR class hull are Oceanographic Research Ships, and the AGSS class hull are Auxiliary Research Subs. i think those are it but i could be wrong.

CSG stands for Carrier Strike Group, and is compossed of many vessels. A CSG has an aircraft carrier, two destroyers, a guided missile cruiser, an attack sub, and a combined ammunition, supply an oiler ship.

I doubt that they would sent 7 CSGs to escort some research vessels, that doesn't sound smart at all. The cost of having so many CSGs at sea is astronomical and there has to be some other reasons for the deployment of so many vessels.

[edit on 9-7-2004 by Muaddib]

sending 7 carrier groups to do research would be akin to sending 7 research groups to fight a war--it doesnt make sense. they are not equipped to do each other 's jobs.

Big Erie what state do you live in?

Originally posted by Muaddib
CSGs are not equipped to make any kind of scientific research.

I was just going fishing, as I do not believe the navy is spending this kind of big dollars on a training excercise. It seems too many of the worlds navies are at sea, both friend and foe.

Do you believe this is just training?

Do you know when this excercise was planned?

Originally posted by df1
Do you believe this is just training?

Do you know when this excercise was planned?

I don't believe is just for training, I think there are several reasons why we sent so many CSGs. We sent last year in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom 7 aircraft carriers (not CSGs) and 9 big deck ships.

" Just over a year ago the Navy simultaneously deployed seven aircraft carriers and nine �big deck� assault ships in support of Iraqi Freedom. Carriers USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), Constellation (CV-64) and Kitty Hawk (CV-63) were operating in the Persian Gulf. Aircraft from Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) flew from the Mediterranean Sea. In the western Pacific Ocean, Carl Vinson (CVN-70) took up station in the absence of Kitty Hawk. Meanwhile, Nimitz (CVN-68) was steaming toward the Arabian Gulf to relieve Abraham Lincoln. "

Excerpted from.
www.tailhook.org...

What we have now at sea is a lot more than what we used for Operation Iraqi Freedom.

If I remember originally we were going to send 5 or 6 CSGs for "Summer Pulse 2004". I remember reading something like this in a Navy website a few months back.

The official story is that we are trying to demonstrate our FRP (Fleet Response Plan) to the world, and maintain a six plus two posture. Which means that within 30 days we can send 6 CSGs anywhere around the world, and 90 days later 2 more CSGs.

You can find more information at this site.
www.cffc.navy.mil...

[edit on 9-7-2004 by Muaddib]

Greetings to all...
Forgive me for jumping topics a bit, but I would just like to add that some really good science was done a couple of years ago at the University of Ottawa indicating that all this climate change stuff is actually part of a longer, previously-unrecognized cycle, and that humans were only slightly exacerbating, not causing directly, the changes we are seeing now.

I realize that this concept may be common knowledge amongst the ATS community by this time. It is not thus everywhere.

The other thing is that I heard an interview with Dr David Schindler on CBC Radio a little while ago. He is the foremost limnologist in the world today, and he, among other achivements, is partly responsible for getting the phosphates out of detergents in the 80s.

In any event, he said that some associates of his had taken some core samples from the western prairies, and (long story short) in conjunction with the tree-ring people were able to compile a reasonably accurate climate picture stretching back to before Christ.

The result was that the century that we think of as normal, ie the 20th, in terms of climate and rainfall rates and ambient temp etc, was in fact the most unusually wettest of the centuries in this climate picture.

Put another way, the previous centuries generally experienced 20-40 years of drought, 15-20 of which were consecutive. These episodal droughts make the 30s look genuinely benign by comparison...

There was a lot more, but the point is that the whole of the Canadian West, and I think the US midwest agricultural industries have been built according to climate assumptions that are in fact wholly erroneous.

I use this to exemplify the situation. It seems we are, right now, on the cusp of an enourmous shift in climate and weather patterns. I am a geology student at college, and if even half the data we are tracking here at the school I attend is even half right, the future looks bleak indeed.

Should anyone want further details on that UofOttawa data, I can provide.

Thanks for your attention.

Indy, I live in central Maine.
(It's Big Erle, Like Erle Stanley Gardner of Perry Mason fame :lol

Check out these two SST images from 7-19-04 and 7-20-04. Can anyone explain that extremely cold water in the tropics? These are water temps in the mid 70s and cooler. There are temps around 73 degrees in the last image where temps should be in the low 80's.

July 19th 2004


July 20th 2004



[edit on 7/20/2004 by Indy]

It looks to me as though the gulf stream has moved far off the Eastern coast of the US from its normal position and has weakened significantly. There now seems to be a vortex of warm water cirlulating in the eastern Atlantic rather than in the western Atlantic. If this current is counterclockwise then the cold water being shuttled into the Southwestern Atlantic makes sense.

This could happen due to the dilution of the cold Northern Waters. Cold, low salinity water will rise above warm high salinity water. We could be watching the reversal of the Traditional gulf stream. If the inflow of fresh water was below the ice pack or in the subsurface waters of the north that low salinity water would rise to the surface in the north and draw subsurface waters from the southern regions northward due to the stratification of the oceans lays.

This is all just thinking out loud and is more food for the discussion than a scientific theory at this point so feel free to comment and modify.

[edit on 20-7-2004 by ashol]

humm, i don't think so, water is densest at about 39 F or 4 C with low salinity.

The temperature of the water also plays an important role on its density.

Both temperature and salinity combine to make waters of the oceans, or seas, more or less dense.

[edit on 20-7-2004 by Muaddib]

God help us
But on the other hand, I never liked hot weather anyways hehe

Ok guys...but what are we talking about in time...I mean, these changes will take a long time to become reality...

What do you call a long time? 5 years? 10 years?