I can pretty much agree with you, although I wish I couldn't
With the magnitude of the spill so far, and the activities going on in the ocean floor, along with the problems they are having with the well head,
the numbers don't look so good. I wrote an article about a week or so ago (day 41 I think) that did some of the flow rate math, and by the looks of
what is happening now, the actual numbers are closer to yours than the MSMs. Here's a quip from my article:
"It is only leaking 5000 barrels a day". That's only about 215,000 gallons a day (at that rate it would take 3 days to fill an Olympic size pool -
approx 650,000 gallons). So they're looking at a displacement of about 13 Olympic size pools (about 8.6 million gallons) of total oil to date (after
40 days). And on the low end, that 1,000 barrel per day scenario only leaks 43,000 gallons a day (less than a gas tanker at the gas station). So for
1,000 barrels a day, that's less than 1.8 million gallons total spill ( it would take over 2 weeks to fill an Olympic pool at 1,000 barrels per day
), and they dump another 900,000 gallons of dispersant on it? That's 1 gallon of dispersant for every 2 gallons of oil!! AND CorExit 9500 IS TOXIC AT
2.6 ppm? . So if the well is leaking 5,000 barrels a day, and they have sprayed 900,000 gallons of dispersant, that calculates to about 500 barrels
(nearly 21,000 gallons) of dispersant per day being dumped in the gulf. In their scenario, they have used 1 gallon of dispersant for every ten gallons
And with NOAA and other institutions saying there are multiple masses well over 20 miles long, over 10 miles wide, and 300 feet thick (some masses
are 4 or 5 layers thick). Somehow the math doesn't equal the picture.
The 'Theorist' Story:
Now, if the well is leaking 70,000 barrels per day, that gives a figure of about 3,000,000 gallons per day (5 Olympic pools), and the dispersant
ratio would be 1 gallon of dispersant for every 143 gallons of oil. It also indicates a total spill so far of over 120,000,000 (million) gallons
(that's an equivalent of about 100 full Tankers all spilling at one time). The largest ship is a supertanker which can carry up to 2,000,000 gallons
of oil (so 60 of them). So 120,000,000 gallons of Gulf sea water has beed displaced (more than likely now filling the Sigsbee Abyss, a 300+ mile
trough 3 miles deep off the shores of NE Yucatan). The Mexican and American continental shelves will funnel oil flow into Cuba and around the tip of
florida, where it will run into the North Atlantic Current.
Even on a conservative point of view, a 50,000 barrel per day spill is still 2,150,000 gallons per day with a total displacement of sea water at
92,450,000 gallons (or 142 Olympic pools) with another 900,000 gallons of dispersant (dispersants alone is almost enough to fill 2 Olympic size
The horrifying part of this 'theory' is that over 3,000,000 gallons of Gulf Water is being displaced by oil and dispersants each day. That is about
5 Olympic swimming pools per day. It is scientifically impossible to have streams of oil 20 miles long and 10 miles wide and 300 feet thick from 5,000
barrels per day, so who is lying? The 'Theorists' or the corporatists and government? You've seen the pictures!
Something else not covered in the media is what happens to all of the evaporation of corexit (kerosene cocktail) and oil from the warming of the
gulf? It gets caught up in the jetstream or prevailing wind and goes airborne. Remember now, we're in hurricane season, and they've predicted an
unusually active season. I won't mention the word firestorm if you don't. Too many governmental actions have ended up in a scorched earth policy.
So, in fact, things are way beyond nasty and the damage so far is incomprehensible, and we've yet to see the devastation a month from now, or a
year, or 10 years. I foresee at least a billion gallons of oil already lose.