Nuclear War What If.

OK. In several threads a possible Middle East war has been postulated.

We can estimate what will happen in a "conventional war" (non-nuclear). And because of all the variables we really are only guessing.

However what happens if somebody decides that they "must" use nuc's. Who gets hit? With what yield?.

Who: Tel Aviv, Israel; Damascus, Syria; Cairo, Egypt; Tehran, Iran; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. And I think there will many more targets, Iranian facilities, military bases, industry, Turkey these are just my ideas, there are plenty of other targets. It won't end with just the 5 cities. Delivery via missile, plane, or truck. Accuracy isn't critical. And possibly multiple strikes on each target.

Yield: Israel is unknown, but assuming that they followed the French design, and the fact they have many Russian Jewish physicists working for them I used 100kt minimum for the city strike. Iran probably no more than 20 kt. If North Korea is more advanced than thought and transferred the technology then possibly 50kt or higher. I used 20kt.

Used the Carlos Labs simulator the results!
Simulator: www.carloslabs.com...
Not sure about the legalities of coping the image results so please go to the site and try them.

Tel Aviv: 20kt bomb.
Thermal blast about 3 miles in diameter.
Pressure blast about 5 miles in diameter.
Fallout pattern 10 miles to the east for prevailing winds.

Damascus, Cairo, Tehran, Riyadh: 100kt bomb.
Thermal blast about 8 miles in diameter.
Pressure blast about 10 miles in diameter.
Fallout pattern 20 miles to the east for prevailing winds.

So nuclear war:
“An estimated 16-20 million Iranians would die in a nuclear war with Israel, according to a report issued by a respected Washington think tank.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) also estimates that between 200,000 and 800,000 Israelis would be killed, the Jerusalem Post reported.
The report, which is theoretical and based on limited verified knowledge of Israel's and Iran's nuclear capability, paints a bleak picture for both nations.”
Source: www.foxnews.com...

Is anyone really this insane?

There was a time when i was really scared of nuclear war. It was after we read the book "The Last Children of Schewenborn" in School and i saw the movie "Threads" (Everyone should see this one, even though it is one of the most shocking and horrific movies ever made) i became really afraid of nuclear war.

I don't know if the people are really this insance to start a nuclear war. I somehow can imagine that someday some country will drop the bomb and i can imagine that it would be a middle-eastern country or maybe north korea

The question remains: Why are there nuclear weapons? Why are there people who think we need them?

I just hope it will never happen.

My take is that neither side will let the nuclear (or other WMD) genie out of the bottle until they start losing... when one side or the other start to lose then, the Genie will be unleashed, and from that point I really am not sure anyone could stop it, as we'd move into a first strike situation of wanting to end the war ASAP with as much might as possible.

If you put two bitter enemies in a cage fight with no weapons they will fight until one or the other is knocked out, or a winner is declared.

If you give them both lethal weapons they will quickly fight to the death, one or both will die from wounds of battle.

Iran and Israel are being led into the cage, with lethal weapons.

Why would either NOT use them?

It will happen, and when it does, go camping. Before you do, have your camping supplies ready, and a route/destination chosen. Choose a place to camp by using a fallout map. If you live on the east coast of the USA, you may as well camp at ground zero. Here in Kansas City, there is no safety until you drive I-70 west past Salina, depending on prevailing winds. My wife and I are moving to New Mexico, where chances may be better. Maybe I should consider the southern hemisphere...

[edit on 7-6-2010 by Lazarus Short]

reply to post by Lazarus Short


I can't see Israel ever risking an attack on Saudi Arabia. And I don't believe such an attack would be entirly successful.

The level of outrage that would be generated by a strike on the country that has 25% of the worlds known oil reserves would see the entire rest of the populace of Israel deader than a hammer in no short order I'd imagine.


[edit on 7-6-2010 by belial259]

Originally posted by Lazarus Short
It will happen, and when it does, go camping. Before you do, have your camping supplies ready, and a route/destination chosen. Choose a place to camp by using a fallout map. If you live on the east coast of the USA, you may as well camp at ground zero. Here in Kansas City, there is no safety until you drive I-70 west past Salina, depending on prevailing winds. My wife and I are moving to New Mexico, where chances may be better. Maybe I should consider the southern hemisphere...

[edit on 7-6-2010 by Lazarus Short]

personally (and a little off topic) I have a bug out hamper.. and am going to have a few chilled brews while dangling my feet in the rive down the road.. I'm hoping one of those bombs goes off over my head... since I personally do not want to see the aftermath of a war like that..

Everybody knows this scenario will never happen. None of those nations are stupid to use the nukes against each other even if they get in head to head war, unless the whole world going to the state of chaos.

USA remains as the only country in the world ever used this stuff for a long times to come.

Everybody knows this scenario will never happen. None of those nations are stupid to use the nukes against each other even if they get in head to head war, unless the whole world going to the state of chaos.

Hahahahaahaha.

Yeah sure. Israel WILL use nukes if Syria-Lebanon-Turkey-Iran or whoever uses chemical/biological/nuclear warheads against them or if they are about to lose or if they suffer too much casualties (I don't know how much casualties they would need to use nukes)...

Fact : Israel deployed nukes to nuke Baghdad when Saddam launched only 39 Scuds at Israel causing 2 deaths... they backed down after US promises of high-tech military supplies and an anti-missile shield for Israel, in return, Israel wouldn't nuke Baghdad.

Now what do you think will happen when Syria and Hezbollah use HUNDREDS of high-tech versions of Scuds, M-600, against Israel? Especially when they've got an INSANE right-wing extremist government? They gonna NUKE Syria and Lebanon.

Fact : Israel deployed nukes in 1973 when they were about to lose the war. They only backed down because the war turned in their favor and Nixon set up an airlift for military supplies.

So Israel nearly used nukes 2 times already. Many analysts say that the only way Israel can destroy Iranian nuclear program and missile capability without US assistance is to use nukes because of the distance involved, the underground installations, the spreading of those installations and the rapidity they need to be effective.

And in 2006, I've read a Pentagon report on ``An analysis of an air strike against Iran nuclear installations``... where it said that nuclear bunker busters were SAFE FOR CIVILIANS (I'm not kidding) because those nukes exploded underground. In their example, they used the explosion of a nuke in central Tehran where a reactor is situated.

When you brand nuclear weapons SAFE FOR CIVILIANS, it's because you've lost your marbles. And those people are in power.

And of course you're gonna say ``they're not gonna use nukes! They don't want to have the fallout! Well guess what? If they cared about the fallout, they wouldn't have used DEPLETED URANIUM for all these years, which over the years IS WORSE than an actual nuclear weapon.

And about worldwide anger if Israel use nukes? Would they care? Do they care now about the Flotilla fiasco what people think? NOOOOOOOOOO.

[edit on 7-6-2010 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by Vitchilo



Ever heard of the word (speculations)? It is a form of “seems-to-be-logical” arguments around unproved information)!

I am not fan of USA or Israel what so ever, what I am talking about is the war strategy. War strategy is not about (what or how you can do it today ) it is about the question like (can you deal with the consequences, the day after)?

If it wasn’t so, the WMD owner countries around the world would have use it many times in many places in many cases, hell.. OBL or whom/what ever behind that lousy figure would have use on 9/11 and kill the whole NY’ers instead of destroying a couple of worthless buildings.

None of those mentioned above countries could ever face the humanity in case of nukes or WMD attacks, EVER!

So, my point was and still is clear, they are not stupid enough to DO IT.

Originally posted by barkingdogamato
...

Is anyone really this insane?

Everyone that faces Mecca 5 times a day is exactly this insane, and more so.

So, my point was and still is clear, they are not stupid enough to DO IT.

Well I guess we disagree on that.

They will do it because they believe they are right and that ``it's in self-defense to avoid ``another holocaust```` or some kind of BS reason to do so while they commit nuclear genocide on their neighbors.

reply to post by amkia


Rational people would not use them agreed.

However if faced with loss of their nation then yes because they won't be around to care. A fanatic group gets or is given a bomb, they're fanatics gods telling them to do this. And there are fanatics on both sides. Or some soldier misinterprets orders. Or???

Lots of ways this can get out of hand and escalate to something none of us can believe.