China going up... US & Europe going down~

That's fact. What would be fun to discuss though are the following topics:

1.) How far can China develop / conquer / impact

2.) How deep can US & Europe fall

3.) When will the Majority of the west "wake up"

4.) How will the west react when China surpasses the European and American economy...

5.) What are the consequences of the increased world competition

6.) What are the odds of a major war outbreak within the coming 50 years as a cause to this world development

7.) Where do you see yourself in all this


Hope we can get some serious discussion around here on the topic. I am assuming a bit here, but that's part of the game

Shoot

I think that it will be a while before China's economy reaches the level of the US, however, I'm pretty sure it evetually will but what happens then I don't have many thoughts. As to any wars happening, I don't think China would want any wars. Sure they make a deal out of Taiwan every so often, but I think they're economy and the fact that it is growing so fast will prevent China from doing anything. I'm sure China would not want to lose the huge growing trade they have with the US. Any war China gets involved in will not benefit them.

1.) China can continue to develop as long as other countries continue to invest in it and continue to purchase from it. China's growth seems very dependent on exports. It can survive when those exports slow down but growth will decline.

2.) The US and Europe are very high up right now and the US is trying to make sure they stay on top. The US economy still has fairly good growth while Europe is almost at a standstill. Europe doesn't seem to be working too hard to correct that but I don't think Europe or the US will fall into poverty within our lifetimes.

3.) The West has already woken up to the fact that other countries, like China, are becoming wealthy.

4.) They will probably react by trying to cash in on that wealth.

5.) Competition for resources like Oil, Iron Ore, Copper and other commodities will probably be the biggest problem. That will lead to higher prices for those items. As far as competition for customers for products, the US and UK are not really export based economies. They both import more than they export. It will still have some negative impact though. Other countries like Germany may be effected much more.

6.) I doubt there will be a big war between the major Western and Asian countries in the next 50 years. Most wars will probably be against countries in the Middle East or third world nations. China may take action against Taiwan and the US may take action against North Korea. Those would probably be the biggest conflicts in that region.

7.) Just watching for now.

[edit on 10-6-2004 by AceOfBase]

[edit on 10-6-2004 by AceOfBase]

I think it will be awhile before China overcomes the USA, They still need to do something with thier currency, before they really can take off. As far as the War goes I think that started on September 11th. It's just not global yet.

I see a lot of news about China on the net and there's plenty in the newspapers as far as I know, but yet most "foreigners" who come here are still shocked about the development as if they were not aware of it from the media. I it that big a gap between understanding the situation from the media and actually experience it on the field..?

Also I feel many people in the west still, and especially elder people really don't seem to get the connections between global demand and supply... how come so many "good people" are being fired... why the competition is so much harder and so on. That's why I asked for the "Majority". Because the way I see it now is that only a small percent of the people in the west really see the cause of the present situation.

Some are complaining as if they didn't even understand that a business is actually set up to make profit for example. Not just to feed employees.

Just some thoughts.

the war is a sooner or later thing, i am think about within 20 or 30 years, and taiwan is simply not worth it, china could have taken taiwan easily and america can't do nothing about it. but it is not worth it to take taiwan and then hear all these crap balhblah from teh weatern world, the way I see it is china is waiting for the right moment to take not only taiwai, but also japan at the same time, the plan should be china is camouflage herself in attacking taiwan but really is to finish all the worthless lives in japan, then in control of the whole asia, and at that time, china is not afraid of any economic sacntions, america or euro are the ones who should be

1) China Could be the Biggest IT Country with in 5 years. But because of the general poor nature of they people and repression, this will come back to haunt them, (IMHO) When a country puts out the most goods and only 13% of there population has phones, there is a huge Poor to Rich Ratio. And its not just poor it Dirt poor. I believe China will have to take care of its own before it will ever truly obtain what the US has. There are proably millions of smart people held down and living poorly, I dont see how this will cause the "Orginal Ideas" That has made free thinking countries so prosperous.

2) I think the US will always bounce back, I mean it not like we are not 3)driving SUVs and the gas prices are silly, even our poor people have cell phones and cable (not that its a good thing in alot of cases) I think the US will bein good shape, if they can keep some more jobs n house.

I understand why companies do it (slave labor for a dollar and hour) But there has to be an equalizer and we have to think of our own people, at least regualte it better and help with the human rights issues that go on in these countries.

3)We woke up in On Dec 7 1941. This truly is what turned america around and into the SUPER POWER it is. Not sure what other way you may mean by waking up? Please explain more


4) They got a long way to go as far as The PEOPLE, I think unless they move to a more democratic (whatever that is lol) form of Gov. They will never aspire as a Whole Country, which is what the economy is based on.


5) Lower prices. in most cases, depends on what ya mean Oil, Resources, or cell phones and computer? I think the next 50 years will be the Alt energy years after we get done with the middle east crap (who knows when that is) I think we will put our time into not relying on any energy but what we can produce here. I also think the global market will bring countries closer, and steer them far from war. 6)Which is my awnser to 6.


7)Hopefully on the beach, getting a call from my India Project manager and Chinese Programer =)

China will be a threat as long as Walmart is in business...Walmart is Satan with the lowest prices...

Just remember China needs us more then we need them, who else would buy the cheap crap they produce.

Cheap crap?

Wake up, haha~~ Come to reality and have a look around.

A visit to China would be recommendable.

It's the western companies who come to China to source and sell back to their home markets. How healthy is that for the western welfare, job and economy situation... hehe

Dude

I don't need to visit China I can just go down to my local Wal-Mart

You guys are missing the major factor in this question. It is the difference in ideology that keeps the US on top. Each US Citizen functions from a knowledge that theoretically they can climb the social, political, and economic ladders as far as their own hard work and luck can take them. It is the attitude of the population and what control, real or imagined, they have over their own lives that makes the US and other Western Countires the economic powerhouses that they are.

Could Bill Gates have grown Microsoft out of a garage in China? People will ALWAYS work harder and better for themselves than they will for the State. This was the reason that the Soviet Union could not compete with the US economically.

My belief is that for China to compete with the West on all levels, it will have to become the West, for all practical purposes in both form and function. Only a Free People with at least the illusion of self-determination can maintain the drive and innovation required to stay on top in the 21st century world of ideas. This is why everyone steals technology from the US. It's better because the people who produce it are Free.

There's plenty of innovation in China, and there is more to come as more and more chinese are becoming aware of the importance of innovation. In my company (I'm from Europe and work in a chinese company in China run by a chinese), our boss is very in to innovation. We have almost 100 R&D engineers virtually spitting out new designs that our American and European customers are totally excited about. I think we have an average of 3 new designs Every Week, patents and everything, and this is in the Bathroom manufacturing field. The cheap Wal-Mart crap is not even our business, we focus only on high tech top end business... So what you buy from American Standard, Toto, Kohler, Grohe, Hansgrohe, Mira, Moen and most of those big companies I can tell you are produced in China, not by their own factories but by Chinese owned ones.

Heck, not even the new fantastic designs you see in the annual major exhibitions are all western, more and more of them are Chinese, and if it's presented by the western companies, then it may well be designed by the Chinese.

Think about that when you walk around in your home back there, the stuff you buy are probably not only Produced in China, they may as well be designed and patented in China. Only that some company in the west got sales exclusivity and it carries their name.

In China many chinese are actually looking down on imported products these years. They are expensive, and many times not even as good as the chinese own counterparts. I'm talking TV's, computers, cars, high-tech in general, not to mention all the normal living stuff we use.

In my opinion then, In many cases I'd rather buy a chinese brand product.

We are still within the topic right

China Lurker,

You are overlooking yourself.

You are from Europe working for a chinese company. You miss the point.

The innovations still comming from the west, from WESTERNERS. Even if the company is chinese, its westerners doing the working and innovating because they know it will get them rich. They can return to thier home countries richer.

The average chinese citizen will not benefit so. Thus, the failure of communism.

It is the west that is fattening china. If the west cut off its investments to china, china would dry up. The only reason communist china survies where communist russia failed is because its opened its markets to the west and thier investment. Its western money that feeds chinese companies.

Thus, if china becomes to big a problem, europe and the us can always cut that flow off. I highly doubt that china will ever be on top. They need us too much. we are thier market. We feed them.

I have no need to go to china. Not only is it a hard country to visit, but i have priorities on my list of places to see before i croak, china aint on it.

Japan is, however. Ill go see them. They make great cartoons and videogames.

IMHO, if we could just get some US President's to stop giving the Chinese US military and technological secrets, would we still be having this type discussion?


seekerof

Originally posted by Skadi_the_Evil_Elf
The innovations still comming from the west, from WESTERNERS. Even if the company is chinese, its westerners doing the working and innovating because they know it will get them rich.

This is not to either confirm or deny what china lurker says, but according to him it is increasingly Chinese firms which are doing the design work (thus the innovation).

Thus, if china becomes to big a problem, europe and the us can always cut that flow off.

One interesting question is would they both work in tandem? Right now France and Germany are working to reverse an EU ban on selling arms to China. It could be perceived (though I could also see counter points to this argument) that the EU would be interested in playing China and the US off of each other, especially while Europe is in denial of the global security implications of its own actions.

Very good points, heir.

Mind you, though, chinese firm means its a chinese company. The employees bringing the inovations are westerners. because many chinese have grown up and been tought in a society that discouraged thinking outside the box and innovating. They need foreigners to come in and teach em how its done, break the conditioning.

And yes, the EU would probably cut china off, eventually, arms sales aside. were talking biz investment. If china topped the us, the EU would be in alot of trouble. Playing the US and china off on one another is one thing, biz is another. China would try and dominate European economies, it could pose an economic threat in the long term. the EU tends to be a bit more longer visioned. Selling arms puts china in debt to the EU, and china will still depend on the flow of cash investments from it.

Originally posted by Skadi_the_Evil_Elf
Thus, if china becomes to big a problem, europe and the us can always cut that flow off. I highly doubt that china will ever be on top. They need us too much. we are thier market. We feed them.

I may be mistaken about this, and I'm sure someone will corrext me if I am, bot does China not have an incredibly good reserve of US government bonds. That is, does it not own a significant chunk of the US national debt. So if the US tries to cut it off, it can then sell it on to raise revenue, and in the process cause give the dollar a bit of a beating on the currency market. Like I say, I'm not entirely confident about economics, but I do feel confident that this gives China a bit more leverage than the above quote would seem to suggest.

skadi,
you are aware that the EU is looking to end the China arms' ban?
Britain backs end to EU's China arms ban

Japan is re-arming to possibly counter a future Chinese threat?
General Motors and Intel are working on billion dollar cooperation deals?

Seems to me that what you mentioned above may soon become a reality: To beat the West, one must become like the West. Reads like something from Sun Tzu.



seekerof

[edit on 13-6-2004 by Seekerof]

Oh, Im aware of the EU and its plan to end its ban on chinese arms sales. Hell the Russians sold the chinese thier outdated crap. Wonder how Russia is gonna feel with its neighbor the EU selling top level tech to its less than friendly neighbor, china.

But, yup, in order to beat the west, you must become it. China must change totally, not just politically, but culturally. Your going against thosands of years of tradition, of confucious style thinking of total order and obeidience to authority, of total conformity. Can China do it?

There is the question.

But make no mistakes, the EU are a pack of fools if they think China will not be a threat to them. They can feed and arm the beast, but I hope the have a back up plan when it turns on them.

And Yog, I believe it is Japan that owns a huge chunk of our national debt. Hell, they own like most of California.

Japanese re armament is essential, they are the force in Asia that could counterbalance the big red monster. They have done it before.

Maybe its time we save US tax dollars and bring US troops home and let Japan re arm without interference. That will keep the Chinese from getting any ideas too soon. Might shut the friggin North Koreans up too.