Florida Division of Emergency Management's reply to my email. Spill, Unseen Plumes, & Hurricanes

On Saturday May 29th 2010 I wrote the Florida Division of Emergency Management in regards to their "State of Emergency" flash report for that day. This report is updated daily with different information, however it is put into .pdf form for archiving purposes after the fact.

Here is an excerpt from the .pdf file of that report:

CHARLIE CRIST - Governor

SECRETARY MICHAEL W. SOLE - Florida Department of Environmental Protection

DAVID HALSTEAD- State Coordinating Officer

MEDIA ADVISORY: SATURDAY, MAY 29, 2010
CONTACT: PUBLIC INFORMATION (ESF 14): (850) 921-0217
FLORIDA DEEPWATER HORIZON RESPONSE MAY 29, 2010

TALLAHASSEE – Under the leadership of Governor Charlie Crist, the State Emergency Response Team and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) are actively coordinating and responding to the Deepwater Horizon incident.
The following is a summary of state and BP response actions to date, as well as tips for residents and visitors to take precautions both pre and post-landfall.

Landfall Predictions:

• Currently, there have been no confirmed oil impacts to Florida’s more than 1,260 miles of coastline and 825 miles of sandy beaches.
• Winds/currents continue to keep the plume away from the Florida coast for at least the next 72 hours.
• Latest observations by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate that a small portion of the oil slick has reached the Loop Current in the form of light sheens. Florida continues to monitor the location of the loop current based on NOAA’s daily projections.
• Currents in the Gulf have formed an eddy, a circular current, which may cause the loop current to pinch off at the Florida straits and move oil to the west. Learn more at the NOAA website.
• Impacts to Florida’s coastline, if any, could include tar balls, oil sheen or tar mats. If oil is sighted on Florida’s coastline report it to the State Warning Point at 1-877-2-SAVE-FL (1-877-272-8335) or by dialing #DEP from most cell phones.

On Site Actions:

• Current projections estimate Deepwater Horizon’s discharge at 12,000 to 19,000 barrels per day. Learn more at www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com...
• BP continues to evaluate numerous options to contain the oil discharge and is continuing efforts to drill a relief well.
• On May 26, 2010 BP began pumping “top kill,” heavy drilling mud, followed by cement, into the leaking well to stop the oil discharge. That effort is ongoing.

State Actions:

• The State Emergency Operations Center remains activated at a Level 2 or Partial activation.
• On May 28, Governor Charlie Crist issued Executive Order 10-115, authorizing two free fishing weekends to help draw visitors to the Sunshine State. Both residents and nonresidents in Florida can fish for saltwater species around the state without a license during the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, May 29 to May 31, and the weekend of June 5 and 6, which is the first weekend after the popular red snapper season opens in the Gulf on June 1, 2010. All other fishing rules apply.
• On May 25, Governor Charlie Crist announced Florida’s receipt of $25 million from BP for Visit Florida and local tourist development councils to air a tourism marketing campaign. Governor Crist also announced the finalization of a Memorandum of Understanding between the State of Florida and BP. Learn more at: www.dep.state.fl.us...
• Governor Charlie Crist has issued three Executive Orders since April 30, 2010 declaring a state of emergency in 26 coastal counties that may see impacts.
• DEP issued an Emergency Final Order to accelerate preparedness and restoration in the counties under the Governor’s state-of-emergency Executive Orders.
• BP has opened claims offices in Florida. Visit the BP Claims Page to learn more.
• On May 18, 2010 the Small Business Administration (SBA) opened eight offices in the Panhandle. To date, these offices have issued a total of 112 applications. The SBA offices are open Monday – Saturday. Find office locations at: www.dep.state.fl.us...
• DEP conducted water and sediment sampling to use as a baseline and is monitoring air quality data. Statewide air quality monitoring is conducted in coordination with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Learn more at www.airnow.gov... or www.epa.gov...
o Air quality reports for Friday, May 28, revealed that air quality was considered moderate for ozone and particulate matter throughout most of the North Florida coastal area. “Moderate” means air quality is acceptable for most people.

After seeing the flash report I noticed they left something out, here is my email to them, Note: I removed my personal info:

From: [removed]@yahoo.com
[mailto:[removed]@yahoo.com]
Sent: Saturday, May 29, 2010 11:38 AM
To: EOC-FloridaDisaster
Subject: FloridaDisaster.org - Question

I appreciate the information in your "Flash Reports". You're reporting great on the projected path that the oil on the surface "may" take. However, you know those plumes of oil underneath the surface that have been broken down by the toxic (allegedly) chemical dispersant Corexit and aren't affected by winds, where are those going, and what impact will they have? I feel that the projections for what we can't see need equal, if not more focus. What are your Disaster Recovery plans?

Regards,
[removed]

Their reply:

Tue, June 1, 2010 3:38:39 PM
RE: FloridaDisaster.org - Question...
From: EOC-FloridaDisaster
Add to Contacts
To: [removed]@yahoo.com

Mr. [removed]: Per our State Meteorologist, Amy Godsey, please check out the below website for questions such as the ones you asked:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

If you need further information, please let us know.


Mary Lou Heath, Administrative Assistant
Florida Division of Emergency Management
850-413-9969
www.floridadisaster.org...

First thing I noticed is they didn't answer my question. They conveniently referred me to a link that I suspected would have given me information regarding underwater currents during hurricanes which may or may not have given me a little more to go on.

BUT!

Please click the link they responded with in the quote from the email above:
Uh oh, what happened "Page Not Found" I am sure most ATS'ers can relate to my frustration as a lot of us here will be the first to let you know when you have a bunk link. So I went into the index of their pdfs.... and after searching found the .pdf they meant to send me in the email.

NOAA’s Oil Spill Response

Hurricanes and the Oil Spill

What will happen to a hurricane that runs through
this oil slick?

• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the
ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the
current size of the spill.
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a
typical hurricane’s general environment and size,
the anticipated impact on the hurricane would
be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either
the intensity or the track of a fully developed
tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm
surge or near-shore wave heights.

What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in
the Gulf?

• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather”
the oil which can help accelerate the
biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider
area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the
oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the
track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline
and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris
resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated
by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but
also from other oil releases that may occur during
the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise.
Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:
o A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick
could drive oil to the coast.
o A hurricane passing to the east of the slick
could drive the oil away from the coast.
o However, the details of the evolution of the
storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the
forward motion and the intensity are all
unknowns at this point and may alter this
general statement.

Will the hurricane pull up
the oil that is below the
surface of the Gulf?

• All of the sampling to date
shows that except near
the leaking well, the
subsurface dispersed oil is in
parts per million levels or less. The hurricane will
mix the waters of the Gulf and disperse the oil
even further.

Have we had experience in the past with
hurricanes and oil spills?

• Yes, but our experience has been primarily with oil
spills that occurred because of the storm, not
from an existing oil slick and an ongoing release
of oil from the seafloor.
• The experience from hurricanes Katrina and Rita
(2005) was that oil released during the storms
became very widely dispersed.
• Dozens of significant spills and hundreds of
smaller spills occurred from offshore facilities,
shoreside facilities, vessel sinkings, etc.

(continued)

[edit on 6/1/2010 by UberL33t]

Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from
developing in the Gulf?

• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical
storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water
(such as for a developing tropical depression or
disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress
evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not
allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there
would be less moisture available to fuel the
hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source,
the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds,
such as those found in approaching tropical
storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as
is the case with the current slick (except in very
limited areas near the well) would likely break into
pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper
layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks,
however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the
storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in
touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce
any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a
significant impact on the hurricane.

Will there be oil in the rain related to
a hurricane?

• No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large
area, much larger than the area covered by oil,
and rain is produced in clouds circulating
the hurricane.
Learn more about NOAA’s response to the BP oil
spill at response.restoration.noaa.gov...
deepwaterhorizon.
To learn more about NOAA, visit
www.noaa.gov...

Here's the .pdf if you'd like to view it

So it turns out that it was pretty informative for the most part and is relative to the oil spill and a lot of questions being raised right here on ATS.

It is primarily all speculative in nature imo. I am guessing that since they have never dealt with something like this, there really is no definitive Disaster Plan because well, they just don't know what is really going to happen.

They say it won't rain oil, however there is quite a great deal of wind, churning surf, and blowing rain in a hurricane, I have been through enough to know.

It just seems like if a hurricane can rip the roof off of a warehouse it could pick up a few droplets of oil on the water's surface, even if it's just surf spray, I feel it could cause some of that oil to get sprayed further inland.

I guess time will tell

Thanks for this valuable info. I'm in Tampa (your neighbor) and have seen frequent misinformation regarding potential Florida impact here on ATS.

I might add that in my email I never mentioned hurricanes. I was just questioning in general. They replied with hurricane information. Not really disinformation, but misinformation in reference to the email query.

It seems that no one wants to comment or make any projections on the impact of the plumes under the water.

....and then this gets posted:

Tropical Storm headed for Gulf Of Mexico?

We may find out sooner than later.

reply to post by UberL33t


If I put jam ( without the fruits ) in a bath, and that I used an electric mixer, considering depth of a hurricane, would it translate as a somewhat semi-conclusive appreciation for a dispersion model? I could even film it.

Great thread Uber!

LOL About hurricane depth, I meant the way it moves ocean water with its contact point. There.

[edit on 1-6-2010 by Aresh Troxit]

reply to post by Aresh Troxit


I'd watch it, and maybe if you did, more people would see what in theory could happen.


[edit on 6/1/2010 by UberL33t]

reply to post by UberL33t


I will go and buy some strawberry jam tomorrow and will try it. Will post as soon as possible the video.
I just thought that I will create a false land with towels. See you soon!

Sorry, I will finally get the jam tomorrow... BUT!

I just remembered an old documentary I saw a few years ago about dolphins and the attitude they had towards an incoming major storm. Scientists went into the water and they followed the dolphins when a storm came.

The dolphins simply went something like 50 feet under, maybe even less, and the water was, much to the surprise of scientists, very very calm. Even near sharp edged rocks on the coast.

50 feet might be a lot, and as I said, I do not know to how much depth a hurricane disturbs the water, but my guess would be that the deep plumes of oil might not be moved by the hurricane as much as the current would/could.

Sorry again for the delay of the video, my bad. I forgot to pick up the jam this morning when at the market... Forgive me?