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Warning: Crash dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now.

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posted on May, 30 2010 @ 08:45 PM
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reply to post by Illusionsaregrander
 


Sociopaths exist, they always will. You can either accept this fact and look for ways to avoid sociopaths being able to take advantage of people when possible, or be doomed to failure.

A society without sociopaths is idealistic at best. It will never happen. That is the honest truth. Anytime you create a system with the idea that the two parties will coexist and work with each other for equal prosperity, it will fail. If their is the possibility of somebody being taken advantage of, it will happen. Somebody will come along and do it.

And as I said earlier, you can't moderately stupidity, so just cross that off your list. If somebody is being stupid in the market, you won't be able to educate them overnight and change their minds.




posted on May, 30 2010 @ 09:00 PM
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reply to post by grimreaper797
 


Actually, a society without sociopaths could exist.

All it requires is for the cooperators to become discriminatory enough to kill them out of the population. In fact, this does happen, on a fairly regular but sporadic basis. (When the little people rise up and kill the ruling classes) The underlying problem is that the cooperators dont have the heart to continue the program after the crisis passes. Which you would need to in order to thoroughly eliminate them.

There is actually a lot of work on these kinds of "games" both in game theory and in studies like this one.

www.msu.edu...



posted on May, 30 2010 @ 09:05 PM
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reply to post by Illusionsaregrander
 


Did you just proposing killing the people that are the best at getting rich?



posted on May, 30 2010 @ 09:26 PM
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reply to post by grimreaper797
 


I suppose so, if you want to frame it that way. I am not saying people should get their pitchforks and head to Wall Street. Of course society would have to agree and make it legal to do so first. And it isnt like you would be trying to eliminate just anyone wealthy. There is nothing wrong with becoming wealthy if what you are being paid well for is adding value to society. Thats pro-social behavior. Its only anti social if what you are doing adds no value to society, and in fact is a sink of value. Which can be problematic when the stealing of value leads to the collapse or decline of society as a whole. People dont band together into social groups with the intent of being farmed. They do so to benefit themselves by benefiting the whole. Its a win/win game.

You can sensationalize it, and make it sound as if it is a very radical idea, or you could consider that in society, we actually do that with some sociopaths. (Those who kill, or commit other various other anti-social acts depending on the society) Animals do it, even fungi do it.

Even in your own body, your immune system knocks out "cheaters" or "sociopathic" cells on a regular basis. (Cancer cells, for instance, most of which your body annihilates before you are even aware they exist.)

Its not a principle that is foreign to us, on any level. (Conscious or unconscious) The big "leap" here would be to recognize, (to become cognizant of) the fact that what is happening at that level is truly sociopathic. Right now, we dont collectively recognize that. But people are beginning to.

Besides, its not like those who are "smarter" dont recognize that is a possibility. There is a reason the very wealthy tend to have compounds and private militias. Especially when their "smart" behavior crashes the society they have been feeding off.



posted on May, 30 2010 @ 09:46 PM
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Yeah, like the guys at Enron who thought of themselves as 'the smartest guys in the room'. Bunch of parasites, got what they deserved in the end.



posted on May, 30 2010 @ 10:05 PM
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I believe a crash will come after people stop talking about a crash coming. However for the broken clocks out there, they will be right sometime.

Other countries are starting the process of devaluing their currencies. European countries will get more downgrades. The folks on CNBC will keep saying this was well publicized, investors shouldn't be having these knee jerk reactions. Then after everyone starts talking Dow 4,000 or less, the market recovers. Or does it?

Looking at fundamentals, there is too much debt in European countries and in the US. All of these countries need to cut back spending. This will depress local economies. Less spending means less economic growth. At the moment I believe increased spending in the US and probably other countries as well is actually making the debt we owe much much worse which I believe is actually depressing the economy more than the increased spending is helping. If I borrow $1,000 today to spend it now but have to pay back $5,000 over five years to pay off that debt and then I want to repeat the process with more borrowing, I'm making things a whole lot worse and will have poorer finances. I believe the social mood of the people has become more conservative. The government is the last group that will change to reflect the conservative economic social mood of the people. Right now in the US and in some other countries, they are still spending away mortgaging our future. The only question remains is anybody going to be able to pay back the mortgage? As fear among other countries grows, stocks may fall.

Rise or fall, I just want to make money and keep what I already have.



[edit on 30-5-2010 by orionthehunter]



posted on May, 30 2010 @ 10:18 PM
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Originally posted by grimreaper797
Anytime you create a system with the idea that the two parties will coexist and work with each other for equal prosperity, it will fail. If their is the possibility of somebody being taken advantage of, it will happen. Somebody will come along and do it.


Oh, and I forgot to address this point, it is not idealistic to think parties will coexist and work together for mutual benefit. It is the basis of all social groups.

You are correct that there will always arise "cheaters" or sociopaths who will try to take advantage of this arrangement. Which is why the below is true.

en.wikipedia.org...


Reciprocal altruism works in animal communities where the cost to the benefactor in any transaction of food, mating rights, nesting or territory is less than the gains to the beneficiary. The theory also holds that the act of altruism should be reciprocated if the balance of needs reverse. Mechanisms to identify and punish "cheaters" who fail to reciprocate, in effect a form of tit for tat, is an important mechanism to regulate reciprocal altruism.


The big issue, as I said before, is for the cooperators to become cognizant of the cheaters and the cheating strategy. Which is, generally, just a matter of time. The more complex the "cheat" is, the longer it may be successful, but the fact is that the "smart guys" are really usually not that smart. Rather than self regulate so that they could continue undetected, their greed and arrogance usually gets the better of them, and they give themselves away.



posted on May, 30 2010 @ 11:09 PM
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Most economic historians will tell you that the current crash since September 2008 mirrors almost exactly what happened in 1929.

What most people don't realize, is that almost 2 years after the 1929 crash, in late 1931, there was a second crash after a brief market recovery, caused mostly by the Federal Reserve contracting the available money supply. The first crash caused the market to drop almost 60% in 1929 (I was telling people when the dow was still at 9,000 heading down from 14,000 that according to 1929 the 2008 crash would bounce off about 6,000 back up and was almost exactly correct).

In 1931, the crash was actually worse than the one in 1929. There was also a major crash in 1907 - sounds like timing is almost exact with the crashes of 1987 and later 2008 (1907 - 1929 = 22 years, 1987 - 2008 = 21 years). Therefore, another crash about 2 years later (IE NOW) would make sense if the bankers are using the same model (which I think they are).

Just another heads up - France and Germany both admitted today (Sunday) that they won't be able to service their current debt to keep their AAA credit ratings unless either (1) programs are cut back (France) or (2) taxes are massively increased (Germany). These are the two biggest economies in the Eurozone.

Expect the European markets to do some "correcting" on reaction to this news on Monday. I believe the US markets are closed for Memorial Day.

If the 1907-1929-1931 model is being followed by the 1987-2008-2010 model for what I think we all know by now is a crash engineered by big banks (as it was back then), the DOW should eventually crash to about 4500 this time.

After the false rally for several months until about early 1931, the DOW lost over 80% of it's value on the second crash, meaning if we were to see the exact same model we'd see a drop to about 2200 (20% of 11,000 - we got to just over 11,000 on the bounce after Sept 2008). I'm gonna be generous and a bit conservative and say we'll bounce off about 4500, as computerized trading should kick in and stop the selling when the DOW drops too far in a single day - something that wouldn't have happened in 1931.

Something else very similar to 1931, the cash supply is being contracted right now as well - reduced by about half a trillion dollars in the last 3 months alone. It's the biggest contraction of available cash in the market place in such a short time in US history.

At the end of the Roman Empire, the available cash supply was massively contracted by the money lenders, and led to 800 years of the Dark Ages when the Roman Empire subsequently collapsed.

[edit on 30-5-2010 by babybunnies]

[edit on 31-5-2010 by babybunnies]



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 02:18 AM
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reply to post by babybunnies
 


That's a very good post there.

Thank you baby bunnies for pointing that out...



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 07:12 AM
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reply to post by tothetenthpower
 

Yes,the only thing logical about money and economics is/are the numbers part.

The remainder is based on faith and hope and fear,the realm of the illogical,hopeless,and fearful.

All being mindkillers,is it any wonder things are so messed up?

In the end,it is all up to those who supposedly have the least amount of power to make change,who in reality,are the power behind everything.

Let it all fall down,it's just a big fake economy anyway.

Many of us just have to regain the knowledge that was lost long ago,and return to the way things once were.

Get crackin kids.



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 07:49 AM
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Board seems overly interested in the predictions and wether they are correct or not. I think this is rather missing the point.
The real question is, why is it that the word of these people can topple the entire economy in a moment? Why is it that we allow these corperate empires to even exist in the first place when they are UTTERLY pointless, and only serve to drag homeowners and good people down when the house of cards comes down?
There is no reason why the collapse of every company , every bank, and every single industry should ever affect the man on the street. The citizens of earth need total protection from the money heads, because the men who control the flow of money on this planet do not care about us , all they care about is themselves. For that reason I think all markets should be formaly frozen until the citizens and the financial entities can exist independantly of eachother , without ones fortunes effecting the other.



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 08:37 AM
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well, if I were to trust words from the Media or trust what I see in the charts. I would have to go with what I know and I know - were gonna rally like a banshee - so, if Europe is gonna crash and burn - it looks like we are the benefituaries of that for now - so, I recommend either staying out or go with caution in long postions into namebrand large caps at or near 52wk lows.
If I were going in to metals - I think, I like miners more or better as metals appear to have made a good part of their move.
not sure how this BP crap is going to effect oils but it will. the chart OIH
is cheering up some as of yet.



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 09:31 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


It is not a zero sum game by any means. Just because I make money does not mean that others have to lose money. If this was the case then the overall cap of the total markets would always stay the same, which is definitely not the case.



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 09:35 AM
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Originally posted by babybunnies
Most economic historians will tell you that the current crash since September 2008 mirrors almost exactly what happened in 1929.

What most people don't realize, is that almost 2 years after the 1929 crash, in late 1931, there was a second crash after a brief market recovery, caused mostly by the Federal Reserve contracting the available money supply. The first crash caused the market to drop almost 60% in 1929 (I was telling people when the dow was still at 9,000 heading down from 14,000 that according to 1929 the 2008 crash would bounce off about 6,000 back up and was almost exactly correct).

In 1931, the crash was actually worse than the one in 1929. There was also a major crash in 1907 - sounds like timing is almost exact with the crashes of 1987 and later 2008 (1907 - 1929 = 22 years, 1987 - 2008 = 21 years). Therefore, another crash about 2 years later (IE NOW) would make sense if the bankers are using the same model (which I think they are).

Just another heads up - France and Germany both admitted today (Sunday) that they won't be able to service their current debt to keep their AAA credit ratings unless either (1) programs are cut back (France) or (2) taxes are massively increased (Germany). These are the two biggest economies in the Eurozone.

Expect the European markets to do some "correcting" on reaction to this news on Monday. I believe the US markets are closed for Memorial Day.

If the 1907-1929-1931 model is being followed by the 1987-2008-2010 model for what I think we all know by now is a crash engineered by big banks (as it was back then), the DOW should eventually crash to about 4500 this time.

After the false rally for several months until about early 1931, the DOW lost over 80% of it's value on the second crash, meaning if we were to see the exact same model we'd see a drop to about 2200 (20% of 11,000 - we got to just over 11,000 on the bounce after Sept 2008). I'm gonna be generous and a bit conservative and say we'll bounce off about 4500, as computerized trading should kick in and stop the selling when the DOW drops too far in a single day - something that wouldn't have happened in 1931.

Something else very similar to 1931, the cash supply is being contracted right now as well - reduced by about half a trillion dollars in the last 3 months alone. It's the biggest contraction of available cash in the market place in such a short time in US history.

At the end of the Roman Empire, the available cash supply was massively contracted by the money lenders, and led to 800 years of the Dark Ages when the Roman Empire subsequently collapsed.

[edit on 30-5-2010 by babybunnies]

[edit on 31-5-2010 by babybunnies]


Read your own post. The second crash in 1931 was created by the fed raising rates and pinching liquidity. If Bernanke is truly the foremost authority on the great depression then it certianly won't happen again this time around. We will have japan type interest rates for the next decade at least.



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 09:44 AM
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If anyone follows the Elliot Wave analysts, they are predicting a 6-year decline in the markets. Robert Prechter has some videos on youtube:
www.youtube.com...

Generally he's been quite bearish over the last while. In their daily market analysis though their web site does pretty good predicting the market ups and downs. I'm not sure about a 6-year decline but they are correct that the world economy is in worse shape that it was before the collapse of the financials. Unemployment in real terms is 22% if you are including people who have fallen out of the 6-month unemployment insurance pipeline. The people in the pipeline is only 10% or the working force and for some reason this is the statistic they now use as the official unemployment number. The housing bubble has collapsed. The commercial real estate bubble is now collapsing. Europe is in big trouble first with Greece, and now Spain and Portugal. There's the BP disaster which has the potential to devastate the Gulf economy. There's not much positive news. I can't see how anyone would expect the markets to climb to new highs in this climate.

[edit on 31-5-2010 by ghofer]



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 06:55 PM
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reply to post by sligtlyskeptical
 


I think equities are definitely zero sum, I am not sure in your example if you are accounting for short interest. In highly liquid stocks where there is an abundant amount of short interest one is definitely profiting off the others demise. I have heard others say the same thing as well but I am not sure they are accounting for all the variables.

FX, Futures, Options are all zero sum each and every day, or in options case at expiration. There must be a buyer for every seller where as equities we encounter specialists.



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 08:36 PM
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The European markets were mostly flat today.

I can't begin to imagine the amount of Euros the French and Germans must have pumped into the market place to avoid a massive crash.



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 08:41 PM
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Read your own post. The second crash in 1931 was created by the fed raising rates and pinching liquidity. If Bernanke is truly the foremost authority on the great depression then it certianly won't happen again this time around. We will have japan type interest rates for the next decade at least.


Exactly - restricting liquidity - one of the ways they did this was to contract the money supply, quite drastically, similar to what has happened recently in the USA. If the Fed had of increased the money supply, the Great Depression likely wouldn't have lasted as long as it did.

They're about to raise rates around the globe again - watch Canada on Tuesday if you think I'm wrong.

I really don't think Bernanke is a foremost authority on the Great Depression - I think the people behind Bernanke know exactly how to manipulate him and the markets to make it appear that way.

If you're banking on (pun intended) Bernanke to keep the USA out of trouble, I have an offshore oil well in Louisiana I can sell you



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 08:44 PM
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reply to post by HunkaHunka
 


You're welcome. It looks pretty gloomy, doesn't it? Throw in a possible war in Korea and another multi pronged Hezbollah attack on Israel in response to their ship attack this morning, and outlook for later part of 2010 doesn't look promising.



posted on May, 31 2010 @ 10:54 PM
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reply to post by babybunnies
 


I'm not sure how you can't say Ben B hasn't handled this the best possible way. He is in the drivers seat with a strong dollar and there is no sign of inflation anywhere currently.

He keeps his mouth shut only to say "extended period of time". That is all he has to do with DX at 85+ while US Equity markets are still relatively stable. Again, the USA looks real good compared to anywhere else currently. I am not sure how you could say differently.

There will always be instability and trouble in the world. Korea doesn't mean anything to us as all the talk over the past week - 2weeks hasn't done anything to our markets or dollar.



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