Opinions on North Korea?

anyone want to speculate on how this will unfold?

do you think north korea can be "contained" diplomatically?

do you think north korea can be "contained" diplomatically Posted by Kramtronix

Highly unlikely. NK is doing everything it can to provoke us. There is evidence they may be working as a front for China, which would only increase the chances of them continuing to provoke us

my pops entertained the idea back in 1993 that our next great war would be with china.

any reason why china would have north korea provoke us? i can't think of one. china's econimy, as i understand it, basically THRIVES off of the USA.

The Russians and the Chicoms will not sacrifice Moscow & Peking for Pyongyang ! If the NK are going too far, they will go alone !

As North Korea has -effectively -next to no diplomatic relations with the West, it's hard to see how it could be contained "diplomatically".
Unless Bush has a secret agenda, there really is little here to worry about. America would be well advised to ignore Kim and leave him to seek his Goetterdaemmerung elsewhere. It's high time the US ceased to subsidise the destruction of its own manufacturing base by S. Korea and Japan and left them to pay for their own defence.
NK is largely an embarrassment to China - anyone who knows Beijing will know that the defensive measures around embassies originated not with 9-11 but as a result of North Koreans leaping in to claim refugee status.
NK was always on Russia's side rather than China -NK and Vietnam were the Russian satellites to North and South: one may recall that, after the Vietnam War, the only unpleasantness the Vietnamese faced was when the Chinese crossed the border and gave them something of a spanking. China would be quite capable of spanking NK if the need arose.
So far, the US has lost every hand in this poker game of stand-off and has nothing to lose if it simply walks away.

[Edited on 8-3-2003 by Estragon]

[Edited on 8-3-2003 by Estragon]

i'm pretty sure we wouldn't simply "walk away" from a threat. it just doesn't seem likely, or logical. if we cannot contain them diplomatically and war was inevitable, does anyone think that china or russia would join in, support or turn their backs?

quite agree, Kram, that it would be most unwise to "walk away" from a threat.
I am merely suggesting that this is not a "threat": to the US territorially, or to any US geopolitical stance (unless, as I say, there is a "hidden agenda").

US and South Korean troops have staged a river-crossing drill near the world's last Cold War frontier amid signs North Korea was preparing to conduct another missile test.

Hundreds of soldiers, backed by tanks and armoured vehicles, marched through a smoke screen to cross a temporary bridge across the Imjin River, which flows along the border.
The drill, 10 kilometres south of the demilitarised zone which has divided the Korean peninsula since the 1950-53 Korean War, highlights two-day joint manoeuvres by 5000 US and South Korean troops that began here yesterday.

It comes amid heightened vigilance against North Korea, which closed waters off its east coast from yesterday to Tuesday in possible preparations for a second anti-ship cruise missile test.

"We have been closely monitoring (North Korea)," an official from Seoul's military joint chief of staff said.

But he conceded that South Korea was resorting to information provided by a US satellite because Washington suspended surveillance flights after one of its spy planes was intercepted by North Korean fighters a week ago.

South Korean Defence Minister Cho Young-Kil said on Friday that the February 24 test of North Korea's anti-ship missile, with a range estimated at 160 kilometres, was a failure as it exploded after developing engine problems.

Short-range missile tests do not violate international treaties. But analysts saw the missile test as an attempt by Pyongyang to step up pressure for US concessions in a stand-off over its nuclear weapons drive.

The North surprised the world by firing a ballistic missile over Japan in 1998.

A new test could set the stage for volatile aerial confrontation between the Cold War foes as US intelligence is watching closely for signs of reactivation of a plutonium processing plant at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear complex.

Washington and Pyongyang have been locked in a tense stand-off since the crisis erupted in October when North Korea allegedly admitted to US officials that it had kept up a secret nuclear program in breach of a 1994 accord.

The crisis escalated on March 2 when four North Korean fighters armed with heat-seeking missiles surprised a US RC-135S surveillance plane, flying within metres of it and chasing it for 22 minutes.

US defence officials said they would probably send an Aegis warship equipped with powerful air defence radars into waters near the Korean peninsula to protect US surveillance flights.

The United States has deployed long-range bombers to the island of Guam in the western Pacific as a deterrent to any aggression by North Korea.

A US aircraft carrier is on its way to waters near the Korean peninsula as part of the joint war games that began last week.

Today, Rodong Sinmun, the North's ruling Workers Party newspaper, condemned the exercises as preparations for an invasion.

"The US seeks to indiscriminately destroy the 'enemy' military bases and communications control facilities, manpower and strategic targets through its large-scale intensive pre-emptive air strikes," it said.

It warned North Korean troops were ready to "cope with an all-out war with an all-out war."

Link - www.heraldsun.news.com...

nice article

North Korea is simply saber rattling, as always. They are reacting, mho, because the attention and focus is on Iraq, not NK. Typically in the past, NK would initiate saber rattling to get more aid. It is widely known that the North Koreans are starving with many dieing each day. Also, the US cut off the flow of fuel to NK for their violation of UN monitoring of their nuclear reactor. So now, their people people are not only starving, but are freezing to death too! I say we ignore them, but prep for a war with them. This should have been finished in the late 50's.

We should just walk away from this "non-threat" and leave him with his delusions....until of course, something occurs that links back to him (which is likely), but we should stick with one pre-emptive at a time for now... Any action against NK should be reactive, not proactive...imho...

Originally posted by ArcAngel
This should have been finished in the late 50's.

Finishing it in the '50's would have violated the UN mandate, and probably meant a fullscale war with China- they may now be embarrassed by NK but they sent 200,000 troops to aid them in the Korean War.

Certainly something should be done about NK. Frankly, I find it remarkable that we can all just ignore this threat and look to the Middle East instead. I doubt that it can be achieved diplomatically, but the idea of war against a country that has nuclear weapons worries me as well. As far as I see, there is little that can be done at the moment apart from some pacifying from the international world. Only when this whole messy Iraq business is finished can we turn our attention to NK, and what's to be done about it.

Deimos

worth remembering, deimos,that China had real fears about the new Taiwan and US support, then, and that Mao had only just established his regime.
And he did it in full expectation of Stalin' support -withdrawn, if the US started thinking "nuclear".
And, from all I have read, a genuine belief that the South wanted to join the North: it used to be called Communism..
It's a different world.

And the sleeping "dragon" shall awaken..

This is the "holy war" not a doubt in my mind. And if you guys are scared, you should be where I'm at- WAY TOO CLOSE to Korea and China for my taste!! I really wish I could elaborate on this more...but the all seeing eyes are watching-reading

I think North Korea is just using the Iraqi chrissis at this moment. I hope all this will be solved diplomaticly, but I doubt it.

I agree with pirate.

They are using the situation in Iraq to create a better situation for themselves.

Notice they really didn't start to make noise until we started deploying troops.

Originally posted by Deimos_2003

Originally posted by ArcAngel
This should have been finished in the late 50's.

Finishing it in the '50's would have violated the UN mandate, and probably meant a fullscale war with China- they may now be embarrassed by NK but they sent 200,000 troops to aid them in the Korean War.

I'm not too sure about violating the UN mandate as the UN controlled most of North Korea before the Chinese entered.
They sent many more than 200,000 soldiers to fight. Various figures have reported the Chinese dead from 1-3 million.
If it had not been for Chinese intervention Korea would have been one country back in 1951.
I seem to recall that there were vigorous efforts by the Chinese to include the Soviet Union in the war, but this fell on deaf ears. Stalin knew that all out war would most likely destroy both communist regimes.

Thanks for the correction on the numbers mad scientist

The UN only permitted action if the NK's were driven back to the 38th Parallel. McArthur took it further, and China committed troops. History buffs will know that McArthur was itching to attack China, but he was sacked and the war ended soon afterwards.

Deimos

I agree with estragon as well. I wish the US would pull their forces out of S.Korea, if the north invades, our troops there will be slaughtered. Coupled with the fact that the South's majority doesnt want us in their country, in my opinion the US should pull out and allow the region to deal with the threat. Why is it that when it comes to Iraq, the entire world wants to weigh in on the matter, but when it comes to N. Korea, it seems as though the US is expected to resolve the crisis by themselves. Particularly the reinstatement of the norths nuclear program and the expulsion of the UN inspectors.

So, as was pointed out by estragon, in all likelyhood, the US may have a covert agenda for staying in the region.

On the other hand, if war broke out in Korea while the US was involved with Iraq, forcing a two front war for the US, what better opportunity would China have to slip in and forcefully settle its differences with Taiwan?

[Edited on 3-13-2003 by William One Sac]