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Why Europe is Doomed to Crisis after Crisis

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posted on May, 27 2010 @ 09:39 PM
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Germany, among other European economic 'superpowers' is under the flawed allusion that they are somehow immune to the intense effects of a total economic meltdown. It's a problem that has been addressed in governments Europe-wide, but never over-stressed or over exposed, perhaps when it should be.

THE AGING POPULATION

The European Union's 2009 Ageing Report which is meant to assess the Economic and budgetary projections for the EU-27 Member States from the year 2008 to 2060, shows damning statistics where the growing number of pensioners will inevitably strain these 'old world' countries to the brink and we have seen what is needed to alleviate the risks of a European partner going broke, bailouts, bailouts, bailouts.

How damaging will an increasing working population be? The experts have tended to use the words 'grave', 'catastrophic' even 'cataclysmic' to describe the problem. The workforce is set to drop dramatically due to this 'greying' to the point where I see it possible that there will be a shift in 'economic superpowers' in the coming decades.



The basic numbers leave little doubt over how high the stakes really are. By 2050, ever-lengthening lifespans and slumping birthrates mean that Europe’s population of working age will drop by 38 million. At the same time, numbers aged 65 and over will rise by 40 million. That will swell the EU’s pensioner population to more than 100 million. The number of workers for every individual of 65-plus will fall from more than three to fewer than two.

Ageing population brings grave problems



"The European countries are aging in a world that is becoming younger," Mr. Frey said in a telephone interview. "And in a global economy, they're not going to share in the energy and vitality that comes with a younger population."

...

"In reality, a legal retirement age of 80 is what we should aim at," Erich Streissler, an Austrian economist, wrote in a newspaper article.

Aging Europe Finds Its Pensions Running Out

Well... I think the point I'm trying to make is that there is a MAJOR problem here, and there is no real solution, other than somehow having a mass immigration of a certain demographic (25-35).

The French are taking action though, and the people aren't happy:



French unions hope to unleash their wrath on Nicolas Sarkozy tomorrow, as they protest over plans to rob workers of their cherished right to retire at 60.

...

"It is a logical option for the government. We are going to increase the legal age [of retirement]," said employment minister Eric Woerth on French television today, refusing to confirm speculation the new threshold would be 62 or 63. "As one lives longer, it is only logical that your working life should also be longer."


French unions turn wrath on Sarkozy pension reforms Dated 26 May 2010.

The reason used of course, is that you are living longer therefore you should work longer. I don't see much of a logical problem in that reasoning, except the people aren't being told why it is actually NECESSARY for them to work longer. This will start happening around Europe on a much larger scale.

This is a global problem, although it is most evident in Europe.



Here are where the main problems in Europe:

5. MALTA



Pension cost compared to GDP in 2007: 7.2%

Pension cost compared to GDP in 2035: 9.7%

Change in working age population by 2020: -7.1%

4. GREECE



Pension cost compared to GDP in 2007: 12%

Pension cost compared to GDP in 2035: 19%

Change in working age population by 2020: -3.9%

3. FRANCE



Pension cost compared to GDP in 2007: 13%

Pension cost compared to GDP in 2035: 14%

Change in working age population by 2020: -5.5%

2. FINLAND



Pension cost compared to GDP in 2007: 10%

Pension cost compared to GDP in 2035: 14%

Change in working age population by 2020: -8.5%

1. SLOVENIA



Pension cost compared to GDP in 2007: 9.9%

Pension cost compared to GDP in 2035: 15%

Change in working age population by 2020: -6.6%

Source; European Report, linked above.

CONCLUSION... THE PROBLEM IS A HUGE ONE. THESE COUNTRIES NEED A MASS INJECTION OF A CERTAIN AGE DEMOGRAPHIC OR WHAT IS PARTIALLY HAPPENING TO GREECE RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUALLY HAPPEN TO EUROPE IN THE NEXT HALF CENTURY.





posted on May, 28 2010 @ 08:23 AM
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in my opinion, its all up to good immigration politics.
million of peoples want to come, live and work in the western civilized nations.
professional and competent integration will help both sides.
possible obstacles for this solution are prejudices and racism, which should be attacked with education and enlightenment.
(in theory)



posted on May, 28 2010 @ 08:44 AM
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Originally posted by serbsta
Germany, among other European economic 'superpowers' is under the flawed allusion that they are somehow immune to the intense effects of a total economic meltdown. It's a problem that has been addressed in governments Europe-wide, but never over-stressed or over exposed, perhaps when it should be.


Germany and the European nations aren't as weak or stupid. They're just lazy and complacent. They're very quickly working out it's the banks that are the problem here. Not only theirs but the US banks and the US financial system.

All they really need to do is point out that the US certainly isn't immune, purge the banking system by either nationalising or starting new banks and letting the old ones collapse and then turn the speculators onto the USA.

There are already some rumors that Obama may be forced into another stimulus. They've noted that everyone is selling the Euro to run into the USD because it's seen as the safe currency. If the EU was to use their central banks against the Federal Reserve and the USD they could essentially ship this whole problem back to the USA, who just had a very toothless banking reform package.

The EU will need to make some hard decisions over the next few years but I believe if they are willing to take more reforms like this French pension reform and Germany's latest moves and allow more immigration Europe will remain prosperous.



posted on May, 28 2010 @ 08:55 AM
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Can't refer to the UK as we have all these horrid young girls who just keep getting pregnant at 16 jsut to get the cushy benifits...

Also can't refer to the UK who have death panels that kill off their elderly...

But then again it simply depends on what agenda is being driven as to what stats get twisted and bent out of shape..

Sorry, but I no longer beleive any of the rubbish being put forward to support z y or z agenda.



posted on May, 28 2010 @ 09:00 AM
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Originally posted by thoughtsfull
Can't refer to the UK as we have all these horrid young girls who just keep getting pregnant at 16 jsut to get the cushy benifits...


Well if the population is in decline is there a problem with an incentive to have children?

Here in Australia we have a thing called the "Baby bonus" upon the birth of each child the government pays a bonus of anywhere up to $3000.

We're constantly told in Western societies we should conserve, stop having children. Fight against the corporations and protect the environment. But we're slitting our own throats.



posted on May, 28 2010 @ 09:11 AM
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reply to post by belial259
 


I do understand, but it is one set of stats after the other to support conflicting agendas.. on the one hand we have to many young girls (realy 14+) have to many children, all who end up on benifits, therefore the agenda is stop the benifit rot and stop all these unwanted births.

The we have the we have an aging population with not enough children being born, and the agenda is that we need many more migrant workers over increasing the birthrate.

both agendas appears at times to cancel each other out while being in conflict with the other.. So I get to the point at times being very frustrated when we are being bombarded with similar stats twisted around to support or defend an argument.

So my post was more my frustration at how these stats keep being manipulated only to serve an agenda rather then highlighting a truth that needs to be dealt with (I'm a pom and a southerner at that, so I winge a lot about such things
)



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