China May Shield North Korea as Lee, U.S. Seek Action on Ship

China May Shield North Korea as Lee, U.S. Seek Action on Ship

www.bloomberg.com

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is likely to resist pressure to acknowledge that North Korea torpedoed a South Korean warship when he flies to Seoul tomorrow to meet South Korean President Lee Myung Bak and Japan’s Yukio Hatoyama.

China hasn’t followed South Korea, Japan and the U.S. in blaming North Korea for the March 26 sinking of the Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors. Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun yesterday repeated a call for “restraint” by both sides and said China had no “firsthand information” on the sinking.

(visit the link for the full news article)

We wonder how much China is involved in the actions of its neighbor and ally North Korea. And why would China stand by North Korea in this crisis?

It appears that North Korea is totally responsible for the sinking of the South Korean ship yet China remains neutral. Why?

China has a big stake in stability in Northeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are China’s third- and fourth-biggest trading partners after the European Union and the U.S., with combined two-way trade reaching $485.1 billion in 2009, Chinese customs figures show.

China's trading activity with NK is minimal but the alliance with NK goes back to the Korean war.

China’s two-way trade with North Korea, at $2.7 billion last year, is less than 1 percent of that total, even though the two countries share a 1,415-kilometer (880-mile) border and an alliance going back to China’s 1950 entry into the Korean War.

So China persists in supporting NK based apparently on old alliances. The problem is that NK's Kim is at best unpredictable and arguably a nut case:

“North Korea is dying, and we can make things worse,” Shen said. “We have assumed North Korea is not a rational actor.”

It is in China's interest to maintain the status quo and avoid conflict.

“China is doing the thing that best suits China’s interests and everyone’s interest,” Shen said. “China is not pushing the envelope either on the North Korean side to be aggressive or on the South Korean to punish North Korea with warfare.”

www.bloomberg.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

China knows that the leader of North Korea is not doing well. He has to keep hold over the military machine that he keeps up in power. If this becomes a shooting war, then they will have 2 choices, face the eradication of North Korea by joint forces, and to deal with the possible ramifications of North Korea using a nuclear weapon, or try to get cooler heads to cool, and get everyone to back down. China has to be careful in how it handle foriegn matters. North Korea is a buffer between their people and the west, as they see as a bad influence. So here is the option, do nothing and risk a shooting war with the use of unconvential weapons along with a mass flow of refugees from the south, or do something to prevent such from breaking out and try to come up with a solution that prevents the outbreak of said hostilities.

reply to post by sdcigarpig


Good post, strd!

The next step will be South Korean cooperation with the US in submarine monitoring operations against the North in Korea Bay, the body of water where the sinking took place and coincidentally the shipping canal the major China city of Beijing (population 22 million) uses in its commerce with the world.

In response to the sinking, the U.S. military is preparing exercises with South Korea in anti-submarine maneuvers and interdicting vessels. The U.S. has about 28,500 troops in South Korea, a legacy of its Korean War involvement in the 1950s.

The US and the South will step up its anti North submarine technology significantly in the coming months based on US technology. This will increase tensions with China as well as nearby Japan.

China is still technically, communist, in its parliments. a guy i work with from china, told me this not too long ago when i asked him if china was democracy or not. its kinda like a mirage* yeah thier all about businesss, but deep inside, thier still communist. this explains why they would shield north korea

Seems we have conflicting reports now.


news.yahoo.com...

ELMENDORF AIR FORCE BASE, Alaska – China has signaled it could soon join the U.S. and its allies in blaming North Korea in the sinking of a South Korean warship, senior American officials said Wednesday. Speaking after strategic talks this week in Beijing, the U.S. officials said China indicated it is prepared to hold North Korea accountable for the March 26 torpedo attack and could join in some kind of formal rebuke by the U.N. Security Council.

reply to post by InvisibleObserver


Thanks for that and starred!

This could signal a significant change and drift away from the traditional favored position for North Korea!

from China could join against NK

On a visit to South Korea this weekend, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is likely to express regret for the deaths and hint that China will accept the results of an international investigation blaming North Korea, the U.S. officials said.

reply to post by plumranch


Yea I've been reading for the last few hours and days on what China's position will be on the whole situation brewing between the Korea's and whose side they will take. Every report I've seen said China would probably back NKorea sparking a lot of speculation on the what ifs, if something should break out there. This latest development in the situation should be an interesting twist. Let's wait and see how this plays out over the next few days. That yahoonews story just popped and I just happened to catch it.

Honestly there would be a great set of reasons for China to be with the South Korean's and US.

1) A democratic reunification would lead to a massive economic boom in a resource rich state. North Korea is very rich in mineral resources, but since it is communist, these are not very well managed. Also the relief of the North Korean people and reunification with the South will cause a massive growth spurt. China of course would be able to lap up some contracts and set up new trading partnerships, increasing its export ring.

2) Supporting them now would cause China to gain regional "street cred". Right now the Koreans on the whole dislike Japan more than China. So if China helped to reunify the two states, then that new nation would be more apt to be closer under the Chinese umbrella of influence.

3) The ending of the Korean War would mean US troops would be pushed back to Japan. Then with long term pressure, China could convince Japan to remove those troops. This would secure a massive sphere of influence.

I've been quoting this article way too much in the last 24 hours, but it's just that awesome, and is very dense of good and relevant information. Robert Kaplan's The Geography of Chinese Power in the latest edition of the Foreign Affairs journal. The full article is only available to paying subscribers, but I'm sure your local university could get it for you. I did, however, find an op/ed version which I'll leave for anyone to look at.

The Geography of Chinese Power---New York Times

Great, but do we REALLY know it was a NK torpedoe?

Like no one else but NK could have one?

And if they really did it why wouldn't they accept responsibility?

Nah, false flags have NEVER happened before right????

Originally posted by Sir Solomon
Robert Kaplan's The Geography of Chinese Power in the latest edition of the Foreign Affairs journal. The full article is only available to paying subscribers, but I'm sure your local university could get it for you. I did, however, find an op/ed version which I'll leave for anyone to look at.

You can find it at your local Barnes & Noble/Borders booksellers, too. Just take it over to the coffee shop and read it there (they are usually right next to the magazine racks, anyway).

reply to post by LifeInDeath


*facepalm* Thank you for correcting my momentary lapse. I've been in college way too long so the idea of buying a magazine doesn't quickly register in my brain anymore. After seeing this article though I've got a subscription (as a student it's only $18 for 6 issues a year), which is a lot cheaper than the price quoted on it ($9.95). Actually whipped out the magazine itself to quote the article. It is a long read though so don't think you can spend 10 minutes and get it all.

Also it is full of a lot of jargon, so if anyone does read it and doesn't understand I'd be more than happy to answer any questions, just U2U me.

If China joins the criticism, the North Koreans are in real trouble.

It seems that the North Koreans have gone too far this time, the murder of 46 sailors is just too much, even by their insane standards of provocation.

I'll bet Kimmie never imagined he would get into this much trouble when he approved the attack.

Better start packing those grey suits chubby.

[edit on 27-5-2010 by Retseh]

Although "they" allegedly have hard evidence in the form of pieces of a North Korean torpedo complete with serial numbers there is no hard evidence that it is the torpedo or device that actually sank the ship. I smell false flag and that is the reason for Chinas stance. I would like to see proof of when the "torpedo" was manufactured, deployed and fired before making a judgement.

reply to post by Sir Solomon


I agree that China has a lot to gain economically by a unified Korea and Kim Jong il has been governing like Stalin too long. In the past China has valued the geographic buffer of a socialist North Korea. Perhaps China is rethinking this position.

The article you quoted is good. I think it portrays China as too much the aspiring Eastern hegamon and not so much the country with a lot of internal problems weighing heaviliy on China at the moment. The real estate bubble, hyperinflation, political unrest, population polarization, the have's (coastal factory workers) vs the have nots (agricultural workers), environmental, etc.

reply to post by plumranch


The full article in Foreign Affairs spends time looking into some of the problems you stated as well as the ethnic problems in Xianjing and Tibet. China has a lot going for it, and I agree there are a lot of problems that lay ahead of it, but if you compare it to the US' past, they are still in about maybe the area of the late 1800's as far as comparable social period. Factory Workers have "rights" but they aren't enforced or can be shut down by the threat of firing for instance. Young women, who wouldn't be allowed in the US to do so (as young as 14 from what I've seen), are working in factories in long 12+ hour shifts with little sleep allowed, no breaks, even for the bathroom, and little pay.

Back on topic though. The Chinese government has got to recognize the chance it has. The US has been on its doorstep for the last 60 years, and while it looks while it is trying to set up a hegemony, it is not for the sake of power but because the only way it can stay in power is to keep the people of China happy, which means a lot of natural resources from foreign sources. And if you are going to depend on foreign sources you have to be able to protect them, either through alliances or actual force. This is a major if not the major motivation for China to build itself up.

seeing as how america has a habit of doing more than just crying wolf. They dress up in the wolves clothes and then kill their neighbors.

I could understand why china wants to make sure this isnt another setup by the zionist regime that is the united states. The religious will commit a multitude of atrocitys for their self fullfilling prophecys.

Why would China protect a bunch of idiots from North Korea that killed 40+ people for no reason? Just to aggravate the U.S., make us spend energy, and to get a view our war strategies for the area?

I wonder how many people living in North Korea would throw down all of their weapons and belongings just for the chance to run across the 38th parallel and be free if they weren’t going to get shot by their own people? North Korea has to have the most brainwashed soldiers if they really shoot anyone trying to escape from their own country.

Originally posted by tooo many pills
I wonder how many people living in North Korea would throw down all of their weapons and belongings just for the chance to run across the 38th parallel and be free if they weren’t going to get shot by their own people? North Korea has to have the most brainwashed soldiers if they really shoot anyone trying to escape from their own country.

You take it for granted that they know what is beyond their borders. People there have lived under a severe propaganda state for the last 60 years and likely have an unfortunate twisted view of reality.

reply to post by Sir Solomon


You know true that, but they must of seen pictures of Seoul, South Korea by now. They must have seen the 2002 World Cup when it was held in South Korea.

en.wikipedia.org...

^^ I Googled Seoul just to make sure it was still a beautiful city and I might have just figured out part of the reason why North Korea has started causing trouble all of a sudden.

Seoul hosts the 2010 G-20 Summit this November. That is a big deal and the world bankers are definitely against North Korea's immunity to their financial schemes. You can’t have NWO without control of all of the land.


[edit on 27-5-2010 by tooo many pills]