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S. Korea on alert as N. Korean subs disappear in East Sea

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posted on May, 26 2010 @ 10:11 PM
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I'll bet a fortnight's pay, that the payoff to China for its support in the UN and subsequent military action against NK will be Taiwan. I think the USA debt to China just became due, and Taiwan will mark the debt Paid In Full.




posted on May, 26 2010 @ 10:20 PM
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It seems two subs have come back...

Two are still at large however


Two of the four North Korean submarines that eluded South Korean and U.S. surveillance earlier this week have returned to their base after what appeared to be a routine exercise in the East Sea, a defense source said Thursday.



posted on May, 26 2010 @ 10:22 PM
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According to this professor at the university of North Korean studies the whole crisis looks serious...



North Korea has warned repeatedly it will fire at South Korean loudspeakers if anti-Pyongyang broadcasts, halted since 2004, resume. Analysts warn that a gunshot could lead to a wider conflict as serious as another full-scale war on the peninsula, which remains technically at war after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce.

"This is a head-on collision course without an exit strategy," Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said. "Neither side has a willingness to back down, and diplomatic intervention appears to be the only option."
Yang said a special envoy empowered by international powers, notably China and the United States, or the United Nations, could be one avenue to defusing tension.

A clear example of what a special envoy can do emerged in 1994 when former U.S. President Jimmy Carter flew into Pyongyang, as the U.S. scrambled its forces in the East Sea and South Korea descended into near panic after the North threatened to turn Seoul into "a sea of fire."
Carter hammered out a deal with then-North Korean President Kim Il-sung that paved the way for a nuclear breakthrough on the peninsula and steps for reconciliation between Seoul and Pyongyang.


So it seems we could be in a crisis as bad as this... so according to them, unless a big diplomatic move is pulled, it could get really bad.



posted on May, 26 2010 @ 10:31 PM
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Originally posted by Vitchilo
It seems two subs have come back...

Two are still at large however


Two of the four North Korean submarines that eluded South Korean and U.S. surveillance earlier this week have returned to their base after what appeared to be a routine exercise in the East Sea, a defense source said Thursday.


The other two defected and will turn up at San Francisco requesting asylum.



posted on May, 26 2010 @ 10:39 PM
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The North Koreans could win a war with the south and the U.S...

With support from China.



posted on May, 26 2010 @ 10:45 PM
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I doubt that-seriously. China is "up and coming" but not ready yet. Yes the advantage would be that its in their back yard-cecause China MOST DEFINITELY inSNt ready to traverse the seas and fight on US soil.

And what the rest of the world sees from the US as far as military techonology GOES may be ahead of everyone else by a decade or so, in some caseS more, its also about 4 decades BEHIND what the US really has. Trust, the US isnt going top breakout with the "big stuff" until absolutely necessary and a war with NK or China even is not enough to break that out.



Originally posted by Centurionx
The North Koreans could win a war with the south and the U.S...

With support from China.



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 12:47 AM
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NKorea to scrap preventing naval clash with SKorea

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea says it will scrap an accord aimed at preventing accidental naval clashes with South Korea.

Yonhap source
What does that even mean?

Does that means that they'll try to take back the disputed islands? Meaning they won't recognize the ``accepted borders`` meaning they'll treat the disputed islands as their territory?

Anyway it doesn't sound good... it increases chances of naval conflict, therefore total war.

And an article from 2003 :
N Korea Military Tactics In A War With US

North Korea is one of the few nations that can engage in a total war with the United States. The US war planners recognize this fact. For example, on March 7, 2000, Gen. Thomas A Schwartz, the US commander in Korea at the time, testified at a US congressional hearing that "North Korea is the country most likely to involve the United States in a large-scale war."


[edit on 27-5-2010 by Vitchilo]



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 01:26 AM
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Originally posted by tangotemper
I'll bet a fortnight's pay, that the payoff to China for its support in the UN and subsequent military action against NK will be Taiwan. I think the USA debt to China just became due, and Taiwan will mark the debt Paid In Full.


You know, that is the craziest yet most sane thing I've heard since this crisis started.

It's crazy because you know the people on Taiwan would not go down without a fight. And it would seriously erode US reputation in the region with our allies at the moment.

But it is a sane thought because China is wanting to project power, and Taiwan is a "big, unsinkable aircraft carrier." I need to find a way to get this article out since it is in a paid subscription magazine, but Robert Kaplan, a leading person in Geopolitics and International Relations, wrote in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs that if China could get Taiwan and have a unified Korea it would be basically able to drop kick the US out of East Asia without a shot being fired. We would be forced back to the "Second Island String" island of Guam. Also our base in Japan would be under medium to heavy threat of surprise attack from China if Korea were to turn Communist and we'd likely pull out unless Japan begged us to stay behind and changed their constitution to contribute more than 1% of their GDP, which would pretty much make the entire world blanch.

Sounds like the smart thing for China to do is to basically give Kim the cold shoulder if this is what is happening. Even if Japan were to militarize beyond Self-Defense, China has a greater advantage in almost every aspect over Japan sans US forces.

That being said I doubt it will be debt paid in full if China has to do any military action they will probably want "Someone" (i.e. the US) to pay for the damages.
--------------------------------
End of the off topic stuff, I saw that and just had to say something.

I once read a novel where a bunch of Soviet subs were launched specifically to distract the US subs from being able to track the one that was on its true mission. This may have been Red Storm Rising (awesome read, btw). I doubt 4 subs would be enough for this, but it could be testing the waters so to speak. Two subs are still missing and two went back to base successfully. If those two were the ones that were on their mission it makes you wonder how long it would take to get to certain targets in the region underwater.

The idea of a nuclear suicide sub one of the previous posters had is one I think is just unique and crazy enough to actually be possible. Reality, sadly, rarely makes sense. North Korea has had 50 years to watch, plan, and react to the differences in military power. You can bet they have some crafty aces up their sleeve. Even if its just a dirty bomb, it would still make the people of Japan panic and distract the US as it would have to divert some of its resources to help Japan clean up the mess.



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 02:04 AM
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That's what I thought. The North Korean broken treaty is concerning the disputed islands.

NKorea to scrap preventing naval clash with SKorea


On Thursday, North Korea's military said it will "completely nullify" an inter-Korean accord aimed at preventing accidental armed skirmishes along the disputed western sea border — a scene of three bloody maritime battles between the two Koreas.

"Immediate physical strikes will be launched" against any South Korean ships that intrude into North Korean waters, the country's military said in a statement, carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

Meaning now they consider the Baengnyeong to be theirs and if South Korea tries to go there, NK will open fire on them.

They might be crazy enough to even attack it to take possession of it since it's now under SK control....

Nice.



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 03:16 AM
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Update N. Korea says it is retracting all military safeguards with S. Korea

The announcement by the North's general staff heightens the risk of a conflict on the divided peninsula, where the communist state has warned of an all-out war against any punishment for the sinking.

It also warned of "a prompt physical strike at the intrusion into the extension of the Military Demarcation Line under our side's control in the West Sea of Korea."

The general chiefs of staff added its army will "mercilessly respond" if Seoul resumes its anti-Pyongyang propaganda broadcasts along the heavily armed border after a six-year hiatus.

The staff also said it is "immediately" cutting off its hot lines that have been used for emergency situations while shutting down military liaison offices on both sides of the peninsula.

Cutting off emergency hotlines is quite dangerous if there's a crisis...



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 03:56 AM
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Well it seems emotions are flaring up as well which make this an even more dangerous situation.

Thousands in Seoul call for revenge against N.Korea




SEOUL, May 27 (AFP) - An estimated 10,000 people including war veterans rallied in Seoul Thursday calling for revenge attacks against North Korea for the sinking of a South Korean warship.


Source

All its going to take is one bullet or shell and this could get way out of hand.. Having said that i would say the chances of no conflict still are higher than the chances of war currently.



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 04:01 AM
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reply to post by jonny2410
 


What's worse is that in that type of situation it could easily be a hired third party that fires the first shot. If I wanted to start a war as such a party this would be the same as hearing the kettle whistling, ready to have tea made.

Then they'd just slip away in the chaos as the artillery shells rain down and the missiles fly. Cowards.



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 04:59 AM
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I hope nothing happens til after the world cup ,
Knowing our luck england will be in the final and winning 3-0 and WWIII will start


Some people are on the pitch, they think its all over...BOOOM!..It is now

[edit on 27-5-2010 by jonhplayer]



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 12:09 PM
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Ha, I love it when nation states start playing 'the game'. It's like the worlds most engaging game of chess.

This is classic disinformation. They know exactly where those subs are, no doubt. They want North Korea, and other third parties, to believe that they haven't tracked them. If they really hadn't tracked them, they wouldn't announce it. 'Hello everybody, here's my tactical weak spot!'.

Other perceived benefits:
- Display hard line to third parties
- Encourage compliance from own populace (fear)
- Obfuscate true tracking capabilities
- Announcing 'we know those subs left harbour', encourage NK paranoia

Of course, there is a possibility it is either a double or triple bluff



posted on May, 27 2010 @ 12:27 PM
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Originally posted by Centurionx
The North Koreans could win a war with the south and the U.S...

With support from China.

I doubt that, I think a war with china will finally bring out the U.S's billion dollar black projects that nobody has any idea about.



posted on May, 28 2010 @ 07:42 AM
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Hey hippo, and princeofpeace. You two had similar replies, about the black projects and what not. I was kinda sorta half joking there, I certainly don't think China could invade the U.S. successfully. Not at the present time anyway. Hmmm, let's say we throw Russia and Iran in the mix? I'm talking conventional war here of course.

But anyway, back on topic. The rhetoric coming out of NK has been rather...different of late than their usual saber rattling. I'm not one of those who says WW3 is imminent with a specific time frame. However, I feel a tension in the air, and it's damn thick.



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