10% Chance of M-Class Solar Flare in Next 24 Hours

10% Chance of M-Class Solar Flare in Next 24 Hours

spaceweather.com

According to NOAA forecasters, sunspot 1072 harbors energy for flares 100 times stronger than this, and there is a 10% chance of such an M-class eruption during the next 24 hours. Shortwave radio blackouts, sudden ionospheric disturbances, and some fantastic movies from SDO could be in the offing. Stay tuned.

(visit the link for the full news article)

I hope that nothing happens, cause this would be a bad week for anything else to happen to us.

Oil spill, European economy, and the issues with N. and S. Korea (besides the 100's of other small global issues) would not make an M-class solar flare a welcome addition!

Anyone know any 'Happy' sun dances?


spaceweather.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Space weather still hasn't said anything about the CME that heading towards us right now from the hyder flare.

[edit on 24-5-2010 by BlankSlate]

reply to post by BlankSlate


I also saw on another thread that there was a CME heading towards us. Do you have any links to that eruption, cause I would love to see them? Thanks

Well, we can take some comfort in the 9-in-10 chance that a flare won't happen.

Further we can entertain a bit of hope that even if it does happen, there is a chance we won't be affected at all, given the geometry of space....

But spectacular photos are always welcome.

I wonder if our amateur astronomers out there will be watching?

reply to post by Maxmars


The online video of the sunspot is really cool to see. SDO yesterday was focused on the spot on Sunday:

spaceweather.com...

Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by BlankSlate

 

I also saw on another thread that there was a CME heading towards us. Do you have any links to that eruption, cause I would love to see them? Thanks

Yeah, downtown436 post a link in the first post in this thread. Eruption occurs at around 18:00. Earth is to the left.

reply to post by BlankSlate


Thanks for the link. Reading through that thread, it is weird that there is no mention in the MSM about it. However, the MSM is under a lot of pressure lately to keep us all happy about the horrible things in the world right now.

The probably think that a CME would cause panic. Supspot 1072 does look pretty active.

Thanks for the alert..

That’ll be bad news for the human psyche and behavioural patterns for at least couple of weeks as well.

Wars..?

reply to post by amkia


Personally I think that anything that adds to the current tension levels around the world can not be seen as a 'good' thing. Unless we got nailed by a super strong X-Class or CME. With the possibility of WW3 looming over our heads..it might be good for everyone to loose electricity for a few days. No power, no war, eh?

But...on the other hand, no power, means no way for them to continue to pretend to be doing something about the oil spill!

According to SapceWeather.com:

SOLAR BLAST: A magnetic filament on the sun erupted yesterday, May 24th, and the blast hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) in the general direction of Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action around the blast site in 10xHDTV resolution:


Click to view a 0.6 MB movie

Shortly after the eruption, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spotted a billion-ton CME racing away from the sun: movie. NOAA forecasters say there is a 35% chance of geomagnetic activity on May 27th when the cloud delivers a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Bonus: Can you find the star cluster in the CME movie? Here it is.

reply to post by lasertaglover


Kinda loses it's zing when quoted without the links...

Here' the SOHO movie:



And the star cluster:

reply to post by Chadwickus


Thank you for getting the 'Zing' up for us! You are right, the movie makes the 'WOW' factor pop.

Doesn't the bulk of a CME take a few days to hit Earth, but that some of the superheated particles take less than a half hour to reach us?

The article says a 35% chance of hitting us in two days...hmmm.

reply to post by lasertaglover


You'll often get a Proton storm from flares hit earth a few hours after the Flare is observable.

Then a couple of days later we can get geomagnetic storms, these are what create the Aurora's seen at the poles.

reply to post by Chadwickus


Is there any type of impact on the Earth when those 'Protons' hit? Could there be an impact if the CME is large enough? I mean like electro magnetic disturbances, or other electrical issues.

reply to post by lasertaglover


The protons can penetrate the human body, but only if you're space.

Here's some more info about cosmic proton radiation:

www.bnl.gov...

And a thread I did in regards the largest recorded solar storm:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Quite a bit of detail in there on how a large solar storm can effect us here on earth.

Good time to watch for Northern Lights:

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2010 May 26 2201 UTC
Mid-latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 50 % 50 %
MINOR 15 % 15 %
SEVERE 05 % 05 %

High latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 50 % 50 %
MINOR 25 % 25 %
SEVERE 15 % 15 %

spaceweather.com...

Originally posted by lasertaglover


Anyone know any 'Happy' sun dances?

Well, I made a suggestion that in a thread on what to do about the oil spill that we should consider tossing politicians and oil executives into the volcano in Iceland to appease the Gods.

We could always try it. Ive heard sun gods like politicians.

There is no down side. Even if it doesnt work, we get rid of some politicians and oil executives.

LOL haha that was an excellent idea! tossing all of our useless and selfish greedy politicians itno the iceland vocano GENIUS Thinking man

www.swpc.noaa.gov...
This is a current pic i found on spaceweather.com. how does the color thing work? I see yellow...right around iceland and going north. does that mean that is aurora activity? how about the area in the light purple? I live in southwest CT..so wondered if it means i wil see aurora

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


I like that idea too, but could we dip them in the gulf oil first, before we drop them in the volcano?