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Originally posted by Wertdagf
but you cant say something is unpredicatble after predicting its behavior... even with some variance....
thats like saying the weather is unpredicable because weathermen cant tell you how all the water arrived on earth.
Sun's Next Cycle of Fury Delayed
By Tariq Malik
posted: 26 April 2007
12:12 p.m. ET
The Sun's next cycle of solar storms will brew up later than expected, though astronomers are split on just how strong the star's tempests will be.
Initially expected to begin last fall, the Suns 11-year storm season is now pegged to begin in March 2008 and hit its peak near the end of 2011, according to a new forecast compiled by a panel of solar experts for the Space Weather Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The 12-member panel split into two equal camps, one predicting a weak season while the other expects a strong one, though both facets are not anticipating the Sun set any new records in coming years.
EVERY solar scientist agree that we are heading into the most violent solar maximum on record to peak in 2012.
May 8, 2009 -- Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, 2008. The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013. Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction.
Originally posted by butcherguy
reply to post by Phage
Dang it Phage! You and those facts again.
If you keep it up, you are going to ruin the collective fantasy some seem to have of the Earth being burned to a cinder.
Nasa scientists have said they could be on the verge of a breakthrough in their efforts to forecast earthquakes.
Researchers say they have found a close link between electrical disturbances on the edge of our atmosphere and impending quakes on the ground below.
Just such a signal was spotted in the days leading up to the recent devastating event in China.
The ionosphere is distinguished from other layers of Earth's atmosphere because it is electrically charged through exposure to solar radiation.
On a significant number of occasions, satellites have picked up disturbances in this part of the atmosphere 100-600km above areas that have later been hit by earthquakes.
One of the most important of these is a fluctuation in the density of electrons and other electrically-charged particles in the ionosphere.
One study looked at over 100 earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.0 or larger in Taiwan over several decades. The researchers found that almost all of the earthquakes down to a depth of about 35km were preceded by distinct electrical disturbances in the ionosphere.
The analysis was carried out by Jann-Yeng Liu, from the Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research in Chung-Li, Taiwan.
Minoru and his father Friedemann Freund, also from Nasa Ames Research Center, developed the scientific theory behind these earthquake precursors. It boils down to the idea that when rocks are compressed - as when tectonic plates shift - they act like batteries, producing electric currents.
"We now pretty much understand the solid-state physics of these rocks," Minoru added.
According to their theory, the charge carrier is a "positive hole", known as a phole, which can travel large distances in laboratory experiments.
When they travel to the surface of the Earth, the surface becomes positively charged. And this charge can be strong enough to affect the ionosphere, causing the disturbances documented by satellites.
When these pholes "recombine" at the surface of the Earth, they enter an excited state. They subsequently "de-excite" and emit mid-infrared light particles, or photons. This may explain the IR observations.
SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS. Transactions of the International Academy of Science H & E.
Vol.3. 2007/2008, SWB, Innsbruck, 2008 ISBN 978-9952-451-01-6 ISSN 2070-0334
ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES: LONG-TERM FORECAST
*Khain V.E., **Khalilov E.N.
*Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov,
**International Academy of Science H&E (Austria, Innsbruck)
It has been determined that in the period of solar activity increase (11-year
cycles) there increase seismic and volcanic activities in the compression zone of
Earth and at the same time there decreases the activity in the tension zones of Earth.
On the basis of the discovered stable 11-year and 22-year cyclicalities in the seismic and volcanic activities and their high correlation with solar activity there has been made the long-term forecast until 2018. The next maximum of seismic and volcanic activity with very high amplitude for the compression zones of Earth is forecasted for the period 2012-2015.
Dr.Prof. Elchin Khalilov (Azerbaijani: Elçin Xəlilov (born On April, 26th 1959, Baku, Azerbaijan) is a famous scientist in the sphere of geodynamics, seismology and tectonics.
Collapse of the earth's magnetic field accelerates
New York Times, Monday 12 July 2004, 18:17:38 ET
The collapse of the earth's magnetic field, which both guards the planet and guides many of its creatures, appears to have started in earnest about 150 years ago, the NY TIMES is planning to report on Page Ones Tuesday.
Science reporter Bill Broad has filed a report, according to newsroom sources, which explores how: The fields strength has waned 10 percent to 15 percent so far and this deterioration has accelerated of late, increasing debate over whether it portends a reversal of the lines of magnetic force that normally envelop the earth.
Magnetic Field Weakening in Stages, Old Ships' Logs SuggestJohn Roach
for National Geographic News
May 11, 2006
Earth's magnetic field is weakening in staggered steps, a new analysis of centuries-old ships logs suggests.
The finding could help scientists better understand the way Earth's magnetic poles reverse.
The planet's magnetic field flips—north becomes south and vice versa—on average every 300,000 years. However, the actual time between reversals varies widely.
The field last flipped about 800,000 years ago, according to the geologic record.
Since 1840, when accurate measures of the intensity were first made, the field strength has declined by about 5 percent per century.
If this decline is continuous, the magnetic field could drop to zero and reverse sometime within the next 2,000 years.
Space radiation hits record high
22:55 29 September 2009 by David Shiga
For similar stories, visit the Solar System and Spaceflight Topic Guides
Like a wounded Starship Enterprise, our solar system's natural shields are faltering, letting in a flood of cosmic rays. The sun's recent listlessness is resulting in record-high radiation levels that pose a hazard to both human and robotic space missions.
Galactic cosmic rays are speeding charged particles that include protons and heavier atomic nuclei. They come from outside the solar system, though their exact sources are still being debated.
Earth dwellers are protected from cosmic rays by the planet's magnetic field and atmosphere. But outside Earth's protective influence, cosmic rays can play havoc with spacecraft electronics – they may be responsible for some recent computer glitches on NASA's Kepler spacecraft, which temporarily halted its planet-hunting observations. They can also damage astronaut DNA, which can lead to cancer.
Now, the influx of galactic cosmic rays into our solar system has reached a record high. Measurements by NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft indicate that cosmic rays are 19 per cent more abundant than any previous level seen since space flight began a half century ago.
"The space era has so far experienced a time of relatively low cosmic ray activity," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech, who is a member of the ACE team. "We may now be returning to levels typical of past centuries."
The sun's magnetic field normally blocks some of the cosmic rays, preventing them from entering the solar system. But that protection has weakened of late. The solar wind, which helps project the sun's magnetic field out into space, has dropped in pressure to a 50-year low. And the strength of the magnetic field in interplanetary space is down to just 4 nanoTesla, compared to the more typical 6 to 8 nanoTesla.