I recently read the book
Hubbert's Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage by petroleum geologist
Kenneth Deffeyes, and from that book, and quite a bit of weeding fact from fluff through Google, it seems that we are in bigger trouble than is being
reported. The projected peak of world oil production, based on exploration data, estimated reserves, and the peak of US oil production(which occurred
in 1970), should be within years, not decades. I've seen estimates as early as this year, and as late as 2008, but no later. I could well be wrong,
and I hope that I am, but there are knowledgable people who aren't disinterested, (i.e. they have a lot to lose if it happens) that are saying that
we need help, quick. (Here I'm referencing
Matthew Simmons, an investment banker in Houston, TX, who is
very concerned about this issue and is also rather outspoken about it, as well.) I do think that this needs more research, and serious attention from
people like us here at ATS, and I also believe that the search for viable renewable energy sources has never been more important than right now. Even
if the peak is 20 years away, our entire infrastructure is based on oil, and 20 years would barely be enough time to convert to renewable sources. As
it stands, we probably don't even have that much time. It's important, here, to mention that we are not going to run completely out of oil. Ever.
But, it will become economically non-viable as an energy source, as it will eventually take more energy to extract the oil than the oil is worth,
(energy wise). Financially, the prices will skyrocket as demand for oil outstrips supply. Therein lies the rub. It's
cheap oil that we're
running out of. And, all western economies rely on oil as a cheap energy base for growth. I'd say that this is a definite wake-up call for all of us.
I'm all for optimism, but this requires intelligence as well, and mine is telling me that it's time to begin preparing for the coming storm.
[edit on 8-6-2004 by Ouizel]