Suddenly, Everyone's In the CRASH Camp

Cover your stock (trailing stop losses), insure your assets, sell what you don't need, horde cash, open a secondary bank account. Red flags are out there. Last month was the second worst bank fail month in history, the precedent from the July 2008 worst bank fail month was a market collapse that started two months later.

Great article from Business Insider highlighting red flags.

www.businessinsider.com...

Suddenly, Everyone's In the CRASH Camp, Not Just The Bear Camp

Joshua Brown | May. 18, 2010, 9:12 PM

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Newsletter writers, hedge fund managers, journalists, bloggers, technicians, fundamental analysts, economists and strategists are joining the crash camp left and right. Not the bear camp...the crash camp.

I've been running around Manhattan all day taking care of business, meeting clients etc. After scanning today's articles and blog posts, I can honestly say that I've never heard more chatter about an imminent market crash, all at once, in my life. It's like the May 6th Flash Crash got everyone in the mood to talk cataclysm all of a sudden.
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* First of all, the macro guys are disturbed by the Euro Zone's crisis and its ripple effect/ contagion risk. This isn't new but it is more pervasive. And the possibility of a China collapse scares the hell out of almost everyone.

* The technicians and Dow Theorists are grossed out and have dusted off all the 1937 charts again. Specifically, they are looking at the highly distinct pattern of a big drop (May 6th) followed by a failed rally (euro bailout day's 4% gap open) followed by another fast sell-off. Richard Russell's latest missive, in which he tells us that we won't recognize America by year's end, will make you want to kill yourself.

* Equity analysts are all pointing to year-over-year comps which will start getting harder now. They may feel OK about the "E" but they're shaky about the "P" - will the tax hikes and regulatory headwinds we now face really allow for a high-teens multiple on whatever the earnings turn out to be?

* Bond guys are freaking out about sovereign stuff, obviously. We've transferred corporate risks onto government balance sheets with bailouts, the Piper still awaits his payment in many cases.

* Eddie Elfenbein posted the results of a CNBC poll yesterday in which 40% of respondents predicted a 50% haircut for the Dow. Seriously, almost half the respondents predicted Dow 5000 by the end of this year.

* The hedgies are vocally bearish again as well. Seth Klarman's got some cautious commentary out today and Jeremy Grantham's "sell everything" stuff is being quoted everywhere. Raoul Pal put out a newsletter this week with a 2 day-to-2 week crash prediction.
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...More at link: www.businessinsider.com...

reply to post by Dbriefed


I've been in the crash camp for about 6 months. Whats funny is someone I know manages money for a living and was in the recovery camp after 2008, but now they think it is going to shift downward and doesn't rule out an all out crash. I think the May 6th event shows that whatever is going on, it isn't what is being presented on TV. (I think it was the fed firing a warning shot at congress on audit the fed). The only show I've seen lately that I like is Dylan Ratigan on MSNBC. Actually I think I saw one of his videos on ATS and that got me started watching.

What was scary about the May 6th event is that it was probably real. Investigations have not found a specific artificial event that caused it. The SEC is proposing new per-stock circuit breakers, but those are not been implemented yet. So no root cause found, and no protections in place yet to prevent a reoccurrence.

The fundamentals have not improved; bank failures continue and market value of their assets (real estate, autos) continue to depreciate. Employment numbers and trends are not supporting consumer spending support. Companies have boosted their profits by cutting costs (jobs) and cutting spending. States and Countries have dug themselves deep into unsustainable debt. Government healthcare passing doesn't help either, it just made everyone a costly burden on society, that was a big mistake. I believe the one-year stock market bubble was funded by banks investing their Trillions in bailout money instead of loaning it out. The market not real, and apparently money printed out of thin air isn't either.

[edit on 18-5-2010 by Dbriefed]

Thanks for the scoop debriefed, my attention lately has been the oil well news. As for cash camp for cover, i hope it doesnt get to that. People are hurting all over with so many problems on so many levels its testing everyones sanity. How much more bad news can we handle before we burst??
I wish the usa would just default on its debt and start over. We do have the power, the will, but the nwo would fight that like the audit the fed to the death for some. Imean there is a point when its mathamaticly imposable to pay off debt. We have been at this point for a long time and with so much lost tax revenue [that doesnt go for interest] there is just not enough left to pay the crooked and the just. The crooked, and wicked greedy will have to look elsware for their greed.
They have blead the goose dry, and they have blead the gooses children as well as they. Its over for easy money, they that played with fiat money, and fraud might find out they have to get a real job based on real things. thanks again

Well I've been in the collapse camp since about 2004. But you're correct. In the last 6 months, several people who I've been screaming at for a few years now that it's all going to crash and burn are now saying the same, whereas originally they thought I was a bit crazy. When the (almost) majority are starting to see it, you know it's just around the corner. The cool part about this (personally) is that I'm mentally and emotionally prepared after going through many scenarios over and over in my mind. I've practically lived through the apocalypse at least 1,000 times already.

Its 2:11 am and i am watching Europe closely.

South Korea is in trouble as well.

I no longer watch US or Canadian news channels all that much as I choke on the BS.

For that matter I choke on the BS on Bloomberg but at least they approach it from the perspective of greed rather then to pretend to be altruistic like the fn MSM and such.

Question?

How many daily hits does it take for a website to become MSM.

All in all like Boom, doom and Gloomer Faber says...buy a farm.

the most recent black-swan item is the Germans halting naked shorting, CDSs an other paper, especially with their own big 10 banks...

either there will be a flight toward the USA market makers with all their backstabbing & near fraud practices...
or the world community will contract all markets following the Germans' lead... sure a lot of risk options will not be there to trade off to some other unfortunate, but a pond with clear water will be preferable to the choppy dark-waters of the current risk pool that is to-the-advantage of the 'house' which are the top 12-15 banks of the USA-London cartel

Wait until California implodes.

The 7th largest economy in the world is in a financial free-fall. The latest budget cut won't be enough, just like the last cuts were not enough. Raising taxes will not work, more business will just be chased out of the state further compounding the situation.

This is going to be another Greece, with heavily armed rioters, racial divisions, and huge class divisions. The economic domino effect will be catastrophic.

When the budget cuts (or a default) throw thousands of students out of school, that's when I go into hiding.

That's good. Everybody can sense it, smell it, taste it. It's DOOM!!!

If you follow my thoughts, I have been calling for a move down since September 2009. So I was way early.

Then I saw the Google Bull Sacrifice logo and now I think we are really really really near the time of total crashzilla. Something massive is in the works for the next few weeks. We have to hit rock bottom at the Summer Solstice. Something must cause the crash and it will most likely be an international event of the magnitude of 9/11.

I don't know what it will be, but it has to be something the traders can point their fingers at and claim it caused the crash. Maybe all the European soviets break apart?

If you're not in the crash camp you don't understand math and fiat currency. Most likely have been blinded by Keynesian economics BS!

The market today seems to be entering crash mode already. Personally I was thinking the major move was a month or two out. Is this just a preview or practice run for 'the crash of 2010' and the greater depression?

Europe markets are down nearly 3%. Nasdaq down 3%. DOW is playing with a 300 point loss just an hour into the market, all 30 DOW stocks are down. Should be interesting to track the rest of the day.

It won't get better tomorrow due to:
- Expirations (Option contracts that expire on Saturday after the third Friday of the month)
- Germany votes on the 120Billion Euro bailout for Greece
- News sinks in of 25,000 more unemployment filings rather than the 4,000 reduction expected

Damn, I was hoping to buy AAPL, every store I called were sold out of iPads.

I've been in the crash camp for 2 freakin' years. Not because I'm 'bearish' but because anyone with a brain knows you can't paper over fraud with more fraud. It is bound for a crash eventually.

This is of no surprise to anyone who sees Keyensianism for the enabling fraud structure that it is.

[edit on 20-5-2010 by projectvxn]

I can't help but think that the proposed breakers might actually hurt the market more than help it because people realize that there are artificial systems propping it up? I know I sure am not going to rush to put money in a market thats being held afloat by duct tape and chicken wire.

I'm no expert in economics, so I have a question.

If there is a global economic recession, then why are we all not in the same place financially as before?

Example: If the US markets decrease by 50% as do China, Europe, etc... then are things not equivalent worldwide?

I mean, the money isn't "lost", it's just devalued. But if it's devalued, everywhere, then don't we all still have the same purchasing power?

reply to post by Helig


The new breakers are for certain stocks and only on the S & P. It would force individual stock holders to hold ever devaluing stocks during a crash. Every time the Market would start up again these investors would be holding a down position while the automated systems dump stocks forcing the breaker again. And again trapping the individual holder to his position forcing further losses on his portfolio with no exit.

This is one of the most insane regulations I have ever seen imposed on the Market.

reply to post by projectvxn


Actually, Helig the breakers make perfect sense if you are one of the big Banks or Hedge Funds, which control the DTCC (the trade clearing house), and have your High Frequency Trade black box set up to take advantage of the system. Its a way for the big boys to cash out, in the first few milliseconds of a trading day, while the little guys are trapped and creamed mercilessly. If you are in the market at this point in time, you better get out quick, before the death spiral begins.

Originally posted by itsawild1

I wish the usa would just default on its debt and start over. We do have the power, the will, but the nwo would fight that like the audit the fed to the death for some. Imean there is a point when its mathamaticly imposable to pay off debt. We have been at this point for a long time and with so much lost tax revenue [that doesnt go for interest] there is just not enough left to pay the crooked and the just. The crooked, and wicked greedy will have to look elsware for their greed.
They have blead the goose dry, and they have blead the gooses children as well as they. Its over for easy money, they that played with fiat money, and fraud might find out they have to get a real job based on real things. thanks again

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Just out of curiosity, how do you feel China, who's been keeping us afloat for a long time would react to our default, and what do you think they would do about it, if we did default?



[edit on 20-5-2010 by manta78]

the timing is very good for my purposes...

i'm due to be sent the $250. stimulus money from the Obama reinvestment program passed last year.
The funds are to be disbursed before May 31 Memorial Day

i'm just crossing my fingers that gold falls to $1k soon, so i will call my bank & Electronic Transfer that $250. into my small Gold & PM account !!

gold & stocks & bonds may all fall this summer, but gold less so, imho,
because gold is looked on as a wealth preserver in this oncoming market tsunami

Originally posted by manta78

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Just out of curiosity, how do you feel China, who's been keeping us afloat for a long time would react to our default, and what do you think they would do about it, if we did default?



[edit on 20-5-2010 by manta78]

China helped create that problem. The Chinese decided to buy up U.S. debt in order to artificially devalue their currency.

They can consider it a bad investment if the U.S. defaults.

And the Chinese enjoy the collective American middle finger they will get for ruining our manufacturing economy.

And they really can't do anything about it, what are they gonna do, declare war?

reply to post by St Udio


Are you physically getting gold out of this, or is it a paper-stock in gold?

I would strongly suggest, that if it is paper-gold, to get out of it as well.

Paper can be taken away or burned, etc. physical ownership of said gold is a much more solid and wiser choice.

Just my $0.02 for thought?: Physical ownership of said resource > paper claim of said resource.