NATO code compromise in Polish Plane Crash

reply to post by Portugoal


If the Russians were in a position to get hold of NATO codes (codes can be in a computer or written down), they no doubt would have taken them. So would we or anyone else in a position to do so. But codes are changed all the time, and knowing a code was compramised would result in it being changed. (you can still learn certain thing's however). The danger is when we don't know a code is compramised.

I remember it being foggy, what if they just turned off the runway lights and lit up a dummy runway? It wouldn't take anything too fancy and would be almost impossible to prove after the fact. Once you hear the boom, turn them off and start "investigating."

I'm not saying that was the way it went down, there could be other people who may have liked 100 members of the polish government to disappear. I like to have corroborating evidence before drawing any conclusions, but this is definitely an interesting possibility.

Originally posted by Portugoal

Russia's getting 'ballsy' nowadays. They're building nuclear plants in Syria and Turkey and just sticking their necks out come time for WW3.

Umm... Turkey is a member of NATO, didn't you know?

..... What were they thinking ? ... That many TOP LEVEL persons all together on a SINGLE plane... If they were all drunk and decided to go for a joy ride I still cannot understand why such a security breech was allowed... Reminds me of the fateful " Leonard Skinnard " crash....

I don't trust Russia, never have. Whenever they are involved in something my first thought is: what is in it for them, and why?

In this case information and a pricey gas deal was at stake. Kill two birds with one stone. Why not?

Russia is obviously getting ballsy because they're hiding under China's skirt. There's no question that they are one of the biggest, if not THE biggest threat in the world today.

[edit on 13-5-2010 by Looking_Glass]

Originally posted by Hellmutt

Originally posted by Portugoal

Russia's getting 'ballsy' nowadays. They're building nuclear plants in Syria and Turkey and just sticking their necks out come time for WW3.

Umm... Turkey is a member of NATO, didn't you know?

I was actually trying to cite the tension between the EU and Turkey in that quote. Not the fact that Turkey was part of NATO. But doesn't it make this whole thing that much more intriguing. Russia holds information of NATO countries and is building power plants in these regions.

Originally posted by arbiture
reply to post by Portugoal

 

But codes are changed all the time, and knowing a code was compramised would result in it being changed. (you can still learn certain thing's however).

NATO has changed their codes, but all the info on that plane from the past is in Russian hands right now. Including all their phones with text messages, emails, etc. Russia's hit the gold mine.

I have a feeling we won't have to wait long to find out what they do with this information...

reply to post by MrVertigo

I agree with you, as for the plane crash I am not at all convinced the Russians had a hand in this. I have watched the film clips several times and I just dont think the russians would have been that obvious, call it a gut feeling but it just dont sit right. Everything at the moment is geared up to go into Iran and the powers that be dont want a vito from russia to put the mokers on it, to discredit russia over this would serve a purpose. As for Nigel Farage, when I saw the footage of his outburst at the EU. I remember thinking "Has this guy got a deathwish or what?". Its sad really, after all, he was only asking what most europeans were thinking anyway.

Originally posted by LexTalionis
Downing a plane to extract information seems very risky from my limited knowledge of computers. Could all the computers and memory sticks been damaged beyond use during a fire or something?

I know computers very well, as well as storage devices (as in the USB ones for example).

Depending on how they were being kept depends on if they remained intact. If a USB memory stick was inside of something protecting it (a suitcase, or briefcase for example) it may very well have survived the crash.

Computers though are another story. A laptop would be most definitely crushed, especially if it were open during the time of the crash. However, the hard drives could definitely be removed and restored - even if there were damage to them you can still salvage information from them if you have the skills, and I'm sure the Russians have plenty of techs to do that sort of work. It really isn't hard at all, a regular person would just see corrupt data, but there are algorithms that can piece data back together so it's comprehensible and able to be read/accessed.

So honestly, I'd say it's a 50/50 chance of getting your information if you take down a plane and the info you want is on storage devices/computers. Doesn't seem like the safest way to go about trying to get what you want though does it? It'd be pretty damn risky to make a plan crash somehow and hope to salvage what you wanted from it... although the crash wasn't from high up really, and the damage wasn't like the 9/11 damage where the planes 'evaporated' into the air .

[edit on 13/5/2010 by highlyoriginal]

Originally posted by Portugoal

Russia's getting 'ballsy' nowadays. They're building nuclear plants in Syria and Turkey and just sticking their necks out come time for WW3.

Maybe they have information that NATO never wanted them to see, they don't like it, and so are pretty much ready to fight NATO.

[edit on 13-5-2010 by Portugoal]

Ballsy sure is the right term for a country that doesn't really command any real military influence like it used to. I doubt they are in a position to fight anybody. The west doesn't rely on them for much either.

Originally posted by Looking_Glass

Russia is obviously getting ballsy because they're hiding under China's skirt. There's no question that they are one of the biggest, if not THE biggest threat in the world today.

[edit on 13-5-2010 by Looking_Glass]

no way man. How are they hiding under Chinas skirt? Outline why you think China is so protective of Russia and how Russia have ANY real influence on a global scale today?

All of this is based on the premis that Russia did not already have the information. While yes, it would be a windfall, its entirely possible that they already new most of the information, since they have their own spy networks.

This is a perfect example of why there is a need to constantly update methods / sources / operations etc.

Also, Russia does have a military presence with NATO now, and even after reduced relations, their Rep has been restored, and NATO does coordinate with Russia in other international / regional areas.

Sometimes, the onlything gathered from this type of intelligence coup is the confirmation os suspicions / theories based on their own sources.

Plus, do we really think that the movement of our, or any allied / Nato countries military goes unnocticed by human and satellite surveillance?

Dont get me wrong, I am not defending Russia.. What I am saying is times have changed, and what we consider secrets arent neccisarily that anymore.

As far as the plane crash.. I take exception to Russia not turning anything over, including the Black Box.. That to me seems fishy, and does need to be investigated.

Originally posted by believer81

and how Russia have ANY real influence on a global scale today?

Hmmm let's see shall we?

"Russia possesses the largest stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in the world." - link

Well that's a start right there.

Western powers throughout history have underestimated the great bear.

when i heard of this plane crash i thought to myself this is either fruitful coincidence or a planned downing. even if its not a plot that was conspired on, it still offers a chance for some solid INTEL about your neighbors...the Ruskies are still recovering economically from the Cold War and I'm sure are still bitter about being knocked back in geopolitical rank a few notches. they are still big players in my book. a question for everyone...am i the only one that thinks that if Russia decides to act against NATO in the future that China will follow?

Originally posted by 80r0m1r

Originally posted by believer81

and how Russia have ANY real influence on a global scale today?

Hmmm let's see shall we?

"Russia possesses the largest stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in the world." - link

Well that's a start right there.

Western powers throughout history have underestimated the great bear.

but when was the last time anyone bargained with nuclear weapons?

reply to post by thefutureisuncertain


Interesting question... Russia and China have taken part in joint military exercises in recent times and both certainly have an anti US agenda. So I think if Russia and Nato were to come to blows that the Chinese would certainly seriously consider getting involved in a Sino-Russian pact... especially given the claim to Taiwan and their ambitions in the Pacific and Mid-East.

reply to post by believer81


Russia doesn't need to. The simple fact they are still one of the most dangerous and militarily capable countries in the world ensures them respect and a major voice when it comes to global politics. Many people talk about this being the era of the one superpower, I disagree, I think it's far more complex than that. Have absolutely no doubt, Russia is a major player in the world and I think the US and other NATO countries still fear and respect them.

The reason the Polish hierarchy traveled to Russia were among other things, to accept condolences over an atrocity. Then to hear of the Intelligence compromise and shady Russian tricks.

This reminds me of the U.S. spook plane that was bumped by a Chinese fighter and forced to land on Chinese soil for the sole purpose of gathering the hardware/software on the spy plane.

I'm like the majority of you and find it completely dumbfounding how and why that country would put all their eggs in one basket. So what over the mediocre distance of the flight. That's not the point. There's a massive iron finger eagerly waiting to point at some nation or conspirators. The question is and will probably always be, who.

EDITED to add: The Intel loss is just a side issue. Granted it's not a positive one. The decapation of a whole Gov't in a single, swift blow is so much more important.
What are a few harddrives full of goodies in comparison to a complete replacement of highest level Gov't positons. Any adversary with only a handful of agents/moles in the newly elected Gov't out of the near 100 lost would do so much more intel theft and damage to that countries interests.





[edit on 14-5-2010 by Marrr]

reply to post by Marrr


Well you can learn so much more from the data on the plane than the people. Maybe the data is a side issue to us, but to the Russians, it was the main objective. Of course we'll probably never know.

i wouldn't worry too much, the codes can be changed quickly, before they are used at all. Its not like a name/pwd like you and i are used to, things are a bit more complex at that level of security. i talked to a Air Force interogator, he said that you can never hold out forever. Everyone cracks, the trick is to hold out for a week or so. By then, anything you know will be useless to the enemy, any code you know will be changed by then. So the Russians probably got very little in the amount of useful intel.