The Scale of the Deepwater Disaster

A picture is worth a thousand words the first one makes me cry.

Pics of the gusher and results from the Boston Globe

www.boston.com...

Originally posted by daddio
What people forget is that ALL oil rigs are built with safety features, the oil in the gulf is from the PIPELINE ONLY, there is a shut off valve at the base, if the volume of the oil flow exceeds a limit, the value knows something happened and it shuts off the flow. Anyone with a brain should know this. Why would you build a pipeline straight up with no valve to shut it off should ahurricane or some other force tear the rig apart? Come on man, people use some common sense. There is no oil flowing out of the pipeline under the sea. the spillis from the 5000 foot long foot diameter pipe. That is a huge amount of oil in and of itself. Not to mention what was on the rig platform.

Under ideal conditions these kinds of accidents won't happen. Unfortunately, there's just no such thing as infallible technology or infallible people.

All the technology in the world won't help you if one critical link in the chain fails. a shutoff valve would be wonderful. Unfortunately, it isn't doing much good if it can't be used. An explosion under any conditions on an oil platform is going to cause alot of damage. The pipe was inevitably torn apart by the pressure of the explosion right?

In alot of ways it doesn't really matter what valves or other measures are in place if an explosion of this magnitude takes place. We can take preventative measures to lower the likelihood that certain things will happen but that's it.

There could have been a variety of things gone awry with the entire system and usually with major catastrophes like this that is always the case. And every time a major explosion or spill takes place it ALWAYS involves lapses in management and quality control. Things just get overlooked, like I said before.

They could have blown it up intentionally too. But you won't hear that from the mainstream media. Now there's word that the blowout preventer may have failed safety tests a few hours before the explosion. And now there's word in the media that we're hearing two different stories about what really happened with the blowout preventer safety tests.

It's ironic how noone wants to take responsibility. Maybe BP will buy the other involved companies out and laugh all the way to the bank regardless of what gets paid out in lawsuits to come. It would definately be a clever way of broadening their power and influence within the global economy while at the same time removing competition. Plus it could be used as a means to force the U.S. to look for oil elsewhere (places like ANWR up here in Alaska). They've had a wet dream about that place for decades.

It could also be a means of convincing the government and the global economy overall that natural gas would be the way to go instead. And in that case they would make more money than anyone ever dreamed of.

-ChriS

UPDATE:

From Z.S.P.V.G.'s thread:

Gulf Oil Spill More Than 10X Greater Than Thought: Experts

www.npr.org

NPR has learned that much more oil, 70,000 barrels a day or more than ten times the official estimate, is gushing into the Gulf of Mexico from the Deepwater Horizon pipe, based on scientific analysis of the video released Wednesday.

That's the equivalent of one Exxon Valdez tanker full every four days.

Is anyone surprised?

Originally posted by loam
Is anyone surprised?

Not in the least, especially after seeing the underwater video.

That comes out to 2.94 million gallons each day. At 100 days that would be 294 million gallons.

The next question is: why are they working on a fix that won't be ready for 90 or so days

How much oil is really down there, that they're not telling us !!

reply to post by unityemissions


It's supposed to be a rather significant deposit as I understand it.

I'll go hunt for the number.

In the meanwhile, I just came across this video:



What disturbs me about this fish kill is that the dispersants are just as likely to blame as the oil.

The train is speeding up....

Originally posted by loam
reply to post by unityemissions

 

It's supposed to be a rather significant deposit as I understand it.

I'll go hunt for the number.

Good luck with that! I searched for a long time, and couldn't come up with much besides a figure for the 39 reserves in the region. That came out to nearly 2 trillion barrels!

The only thing I've heard is tens of millions of barrels. Please post if you find an exact number. I'm very interested to know.

reply to post by unityemissions


Here it is:

BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, has estimated that the reservoir tapped by the out-of-control well holds at least 50 million barrels of oil.

Link.

In other words, we HAVE to cap this well...or the unthinkable will take place.

reply to post by loam


Right. I've heard tens of millions, and 100 million. I think all of these estimates are low, just like what's been done with the flow rate.

What is the unthinkable?

I'm just not so sure that the worlds oceans will die out as some speculate.

I do agree (of course) that capping is best, but to be honest, I don't think it's going to get done. I don't remember which leak it was, but another one which was only 150ft underwater took 285 days to cap. This one is at about 5,000ft...

I'm sorry to say, I think the gulf is screwed. I'm in Texas, man. Definitely don't want this to happen. Just being realistic based on the data I've come across so far.


edit:

Well, the good news is that it will take nearly two years to empty at it's current flow rate, assuming 50 million barrels. So perhaps we can come up with a solution by then. I'll keep my position open, then.

[edit on 14-5-2010 by unityemissions]

reply to post by unityemissions

Originally posted by unityemissions
What is the unthinkable?

I'm just not so sure that the worlds oceans will die out as some speculate.

I have said as much early on. But the local impact is likely to be significant-- particularly if we are talking about 50 million barrels.

This thread begins with specific reference to social and economic impact. This event weakens our nation further and directly contributes to the long term nature of our troubles.

Originally posted by unityemissions
I do agree (of course) that capping is best, but to be honest, I don't think it's going to get done. I don't remember which leak it was, but another one which was only 150ft underwater took 285 days to cap. This one is at about 5,000ft...

I'm sorry to say, I think the gulf is screwed. I'm in Texas, man. Definitely don't want this to happen. Just being realistic based on the data I've come across so far.

You have essentially described the unthinkable to me.

The world's oceans may ultimately survive, but how will we fare under the scenario you describe?

Originally posted by unityemissions
Well, the good news is that it will take nearly two years to empty at it's current flow rate, assuming 50 million barrels. So perhaps we can come up with a solution by then. I'll keep my position open, then.

Let's hope so.

[edit on 14-5-2010 by loam]

More:

Crisis By the Numbers: A Comparison of Ixtoc I, Deepwater and the Biggest Spill of All.

Another thread on scale.

reply to post by broahes

I will be leaving in just a few hours to help with the cleanup with the wetlands of the Mississippi Delta that will take a while. I plan to document the project through a journal and lots of pictures, and I will be sure to post parts of that for the ATS community.

Dear Broahes - Please post lots of pix. The scale of this spill is unbelievable and didn't something like release of Carbon Dioxide from under the sea cause the mass extermination of 90% all life during the Permean? We don't know what is bubbling up from under there...it is unbelievable. And an explosion caused this? Can you find out info from the folks down there as to what they think caused the explosion? Looking forward to your posts....

Thought ya'll might be interested in this, I just heard about it on our local news. The University of Texas Energy Institute is hosting a webcast for the public going over all the aspects of the oil spill. It starts at 10:00 AM CST til 12:00 CST.

“Oil in Troubled Waters” Public Forum to Examine the Cause, Consequences and Cost of Spill in the Gulf

streamer.beg.utexas.edu...

UPDATE:



Gulf oil now in powerful Loop Current, scientists say

Luvly news....


[edit on 19-5-2010 by loam]

Deepwater: 95,000 barrels per day!

Originally posted by loam

1,000 barrels per day.
5,000 barrels per day.
25,000 barrels per day.
65,000 to 75,000 barrels per day.
95,000 barrels per day.

The latest glimpse of video footage of the oil spill deep under the Gulf of Mexico indicates that around 95,000 barrels, or 4 million gallons, a day of crude oil may be spewing from the leaking wellhead, 19 times the previous estimate, an engineering professor told Congress Wednesday.

The figure of 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, a day that BP and the federal government have been using for weeks is based on observations of the surface slick made by satellites and aircraft. Even NASA's satellite-based instruments, however, can't see deep into the waters of the gulf, where much of the oil from the gusher seems to be floating. The well is 5,000 feet below the surface.

Read more: www.mcclatchydc.com...

:shk:

Different numbers keep getting thrown around on the size of the reservoir. I had seen the number at 100 million barrels on wikipedia here:

en.wikipedia.org...

Macondo Prospect is what Deepwater Horizon was drilling at the time. Many had gotten confused with the Tibor oilfield:
en.wikipedia.org...

Which is stated to have 4-6 billion barrels.

Wish I could have given you a solid link to the 100 million number, but wiki no longer says the size. Also, the Tibor wiki says a huge find is 250 million +.

I could have sworn I originally read the Macondo Prosepct was a huge find and estimated at 500 million barrels.

Whatever the case, the Deepwater Horizon was like a 75 million dollar rig. It didn't work on the small stuff, that's for sure.

BP conceded for the first time that more fuel was leaking into the Gulf of Mexico than previously estimated

Source with map of proximity to loop current

"Everything in that marsh is DEAD tonight!" --Obama's Katrina.

Originally posted by loam

You have to listen to this!!!

Tell me if this doesn't sound like Obama's Katrina?

I'm stunned by the number of issues raised by this guy's plea!

This is CONSPIRACY unfolding in real-time.

Nearly all of it is riveting, but 4:20 and beyond leaves me without words.

[edit on 21-5-2010 by loam]

Spill now the size of Maryland and Delaware combined.

Just wait till the Hurricanes and tropical storms rain this crap and storm surge it all over the Southern US.

Hurricane season is almost upon us and we are not any closer to stopping the flow.

Loam, I thank you deeply for continuing to keep us apprised of this situation as it escalates. I watched that video and it broke my heart yet again. I used to fish out of South Pass, won third place in a fishing rodeo there once. To hear that the marshes of that area are now dead is crushing. I will continue to read and watch as you post as you seem to be able to get the info that no one else does. Thank you so much for all of your hard work, and let's all say a prayer for that area.