Housing prices forecast to fall in 2010 -- and could keep falling for years

Housing prices forecast to fall in 2010 -- and could keep falling for years

www.dailyfinance.com

Banks are holding foreclosed and distressed properties off the market, hoping to sell them in a stronger economy. This stock of homes is called the "shadow inventory" because lenders have numerous ways to hide how many loans are in arrears and how many homes are foreclosed but not listed on the market.


See full article from DailyFinance: srph.it...

(visit the link for the full news article)

The author of this article Charles Hugh Smith makes a compelling argument that, if you are thinking of buying because the housing market has reached bottom you better think again. He believes that the true reality of the market is being manipulated by,
A). the banks hiding the full number of homes in default,
B). the fed is still lending to people that should not be buying,
C). and historical trends in the market.
I tend to believe him. I’m not fully convinced that we are in recovery just yet.


www.dailyfinance.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Yes I read an article last week about the reality of how the housing bubble market was made and the true value of the housing market.

Houses are falling and they will fall to the truth value, the way it was suppose to be before the Banking system creation of their fake bubble value to make money.

Just look at what is going on with Goldman Sach and how they actually were profiting from the fall of the markets.

In other words they knew before hand that the housing market was not only over inflated but at the expenses of tax payer they bet on the downfall to make money.

Agreed Marg6043, I think it should be illegal to be selling a product to some one saying it a good investment and at the same time be shorting the product your peddling.

reply to post by murfdog


It was the banking system and the government the ones that created the slogan about the American dream, to lure the consumer into owning a piece of that dream while getting into debt, but the dream now has become a nightmare.

One of the kids that I know is going to College for Accounting. His teacher was telling them that in 2016 our accounting system will change to comply with One World Order. The housing prices in the world (most countries) are Historical but here in US , it goes by market value. And that market value is going to change to be Historical. You make your own judgment what does it mean. I personally think that Bilderberg is right on course and that regardless how much we resist, One World Order is going to happen and we all be losers. And if you still cann't see what is coming then some of the intelligent ATS members have done enough to educate us all.

In case you don't know what market value is. The Counties every year across US evaluate and raise property value based on some formula that takes the inflation into account where as Historical value practically stays the same year after year.

reply to post by charlie0


Is one problem with that, in the US most of the property taxes goes to pay for the states spending.

Is not going to be take very well within the individual states.

perhaps the NWO forgot that in America the states are sovereign Republics.

reply to post by marg6043


Here's something I never thought I'd see in my life time...
Like you said property taxes are are one of those necessary evils...
Here in Albuquerque they are are going up to make up for budget shortfalls..
But there in Kansas at my little mini farm the county assayer has dropped the property assessment by $20,000, without me needing to ask...

Who would have ever guessed? Lower taxes??? but I don't think they really have a choice in light of market values

reply to post by DaddyBare


I guess when it comes to certain types of property taxes are evaluated different, I know is many areas in the nation that farmers get subsides for their property.

Specially from keeping them away from planting.

Given that the last real estate economic cycle ended in 2006, we can assume housing prices will fall/not increase in the USA until about 2018.

Real estate prices worldwide go through an artificial 18 year boom/bust cycle and have done so for the last 3 centuries.

Much of the land is in the hands of a very few elite and they constantly milk real estate speculation for their wealth.

Here is a graph showing the history of the US housing market from 1890 to 2010

Graph

You can quite clearly see every 10-18 years the price of housing goes up. And then crashes.





[edit on 26-4-2010 by belial259]

So they are teaching One World Order, because it is no longer a New World Order? Interesting.

Maybe if the markets were not inflated in the first place we wouldnt have a bubble burst. It is why I refuse to buy a home, when anywhere I go I can rent, or live for free.

Americans are consumers, and unless they are willing to lower their inflated standards, this is going to hurt.

Inadaptability is what is killing people.

The ability to adapt takes away any power an evil overgovernment has, because if one can adapt one can survive, even a housing market crash.

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by murfdog

 

It was the banking system and the government the ones that created the slogan about the American dream, to lure the consumer into owning a piece of that dream while getting into debt, but the dream now has become a nightmare.

I could not agree more, my friend.

This is one group that I believe is evil and has contributed to the downfall of our great country as much as bad government bloat and ineptitude has. It sickens me how they are all in bed together, and they would not be there having all that fun at our expense if we did not blindly and sheepishly hand it right over to them!! By allowing ourselves to be blinded by consumerism, we become a cog in the wheel of the bankers.

Let me define my American dream, banks!

We are not a democracy, we are not a republic, we are a consumacy.

It is rather sick, and I despise how I cannot avoid it. Oh I make my best efforts, but the consumer driven life is insidious, it is everywhere (plastic, fossil fuels, chemicals, preservatives, mutant foods, additives, all for our consumption).

And that consumption went into overdrive with the bankers push into the housing market.

It needs to fall and right itself from the bloat, and it will be painful for those who cannot adapt to a new way of life.

But but but.........the economy is getting better??????????????

finance.yahoo.com...

for the price of normal house in the u.s i can buy 4 here in finland.

-_

Originally posted by DaddyBare
reply to post by marg6043

 

Here's something I never thought I'd see in my life time...
Like you said property taxes are are one of those necessary evils...
Here in Albuquerque they are are going up to make up for budget shortfalls..
But there in Kansas at my little mini farm the county assayer has dropped the property assessment by $20,000, without me needing to ask...

Who would have ever guessed? Lower taxes??? but I don't think they really have a choice in light of market values

I have a lot in Lake Havasu, AZ. They reduced my assessment by 60% this year also. I hear many communities are resisting b/c they want the tax dollars to keep paying for their relatives on the town payrolls. I know they are fighting re-assessments here in NJ tooth and nail. Unfortunately this probably is the norm. Let's see how long the sheeple take this abuse.

Originally posted by belial259
Given that the last real estate economic cycle ended in 2006, we can assume housing prices will fall/not increase in the USA until about 2018.

Real estate prices worldwide go through an artificial 18 year boom/bust cycle and have done so for the last 3 centuries.

Much of the land is in the hands of a very few elite and they constantly milk real estate speculation for their wealth.

Here is a graph showing the history of the US housing market from 1890 to 2010

Graph

You can quite clearly see every 10-18 years the price of housing goes up. And then crashes.





[edit on 26-4-2010 by belial259]

Cool graph. Do you know if this was adjusted for inflation?

reply to post by charlie0


I think that what we will see are tiers in the housing with some home sectors doing well and values increasing and others that continued to happen. Geographical differences will continue to be large.

At the high end of the property market, things are going to improve. There is limited building and folks have recently made a lot of money in the market which is up some 30%. Folks are going to pull money out of the market and by homes that they would not dreamed of owning several years ago. Interest rates are going to go through the roof and locking down on a good fixed is going to spur action as well.

In the middle tier, there is way too much inventory and those prices will continue to drop. The folks who would move into those homes from the lower tier don't have the stock generated income.

The condo market will tank and it will take years to recover, if it ever does. Regionally, those states with large illegal immigration problems will continue to tank. Too much supply, no more cheap labor and the crime rates in those areas are going to sky rocket.

Originally posted by GrampsLEn
Cool graph. Do you know if this was adjusted for inflation?

Yes it was.

Here is a link to a site where Fred Harrison's 18 year property cycle theory is explained.

Moneyweek

It was posted in 2005 and seems almost prophetic now.

From California’s Silicon Valley through the hot spots of Europe all the way to the booming property market of Shanghai, house prices have hit record highs – driven upwards by easy money and the speculation it always causes. The effects of the boom have spread through the world economy, thanks to the impact the feel-good factor of rising house prices has on consumer spending, and hence on economic growth. But can the good times last? And what happens if they don’t and probably the biggest bubble in history turns to bust? We may not have long to wait to find out. If history is any guide, property prices around the world will start to fall in three years’ time and a global economic depression will follow in 2010 as consumer consumption collapses.

reply to post by murfdog


Yes, frontrunning and shortselling is illegal. But um well you know.
Enough lawyers and enough money and anything can be practiced with little practical risk of charges being brought. It was/is criminal that part is well established fact. But who will make the criminals accountable for their crimes. It certainly wont be the lawyers and politicians they're in collusion with.

And in another recent post they were saying the stock markets undervalued. This is the junk stock rests on all those empty lots in Detroit being traded back and forth as mortgage derivatives.

As a Phoenix resident, we have been one of the hardest hit locations in the housing slump.

But for the first time in 3 years we are seeing prices begin to rise again.

This is just my opinion of course, but if the job market begins to strengthen and the DOW continues to strengthen, then I think it's inevitable that house prices will begin to rise, "shadow inventory" or not.