How Will South Korea Respond?

Hi all,

After the sinking of the 'Cheonan' on March 26 2010, we have since learned that the blast was caused by a close range, external explosion.

South Korea have now officially admitted that the most likely cause of this was 'a torpedo'.

We have also had unofficial statements saying the North were to blame.

News from Sunday 25th April 2010 -

An explosion from a torpedo likely sank a South Korean warship that went down near the tense border with North Korea last month, the South's defense minister said Sunday amid growing speculation Pyongyang may be behind the blast.

Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said the most likely cause of the disaster was a torpedo exploding near the ship, with the force of the underwater blast ripping the vessel apart. He did not speculate on who may have fired it.


Kim told lawmakers shortly after the blast that a North Korean torpedo or mine was among the suspected culprits. He said earlier this month that a torpedo attack was more likely.

So, if over the coming days/weeks it does indeed emerge that the North Were to blame for this act, how will the South respond, or how should they respond?

We have seen several incidents over the years and the 2 countries have never officially put an end to their War.

Dec. 18, 1998 - South Korean navy sinks submersible North Korean spy vessel on east coast. A scuba diver from the North is found dead.

June 1999 - At least 17 and as many as 80 North Korean sailors killed in naval firefight over Northern Limit Line (NLL), a west coast, Yellow Sea border contested by the North. One of the North's vessels was sunk, others damaged.Clash followed nine days of incursions by the North into South Korean waters.

June 29, 2002 - A clash between South and North Korean naval vessels in Yellow Sea sinks one South Korean frigate and kills six South Korean sailors and an estimated 13 North Koreans.

July 17, 2003 - South Korea says its troops returned machinegun fire a minute after the North shot at an observation post in the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) buffer between the states.

May 26, 2006 - Two North Korean soldiers enter DMZ and cross into South Korea. They return after South fires warning shots.

. July 11, 2008 - South Korean tourist, a 53-year-old housewife, shot dead by North Korean soldier at the Mount Kumgang resort in the North, which is run by companies in the South.

Nov. 10, 2009 - Two Koreas have brief naval fight just south of the NLL that causes damage to vessels on both sides.

Jan. 27, 2010 - Two Koreas exchange artillery fire near the NLL sea border.

March 26, 2010 - South Korean navy ship sinks near disputed Yellow Sea maritime border off the west coast.

Is there any difference to this latest incident than any of these previous skirmishes?

Will the South be provoked into launching any kind of attack on the North knowing full well there will be huge consequences?

Or will they do nothing?

G.

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It is a tough call. Any overt retaliatory action could heat up into all out war. A situation that South Korea doesn't really want to happen and quite honestly it is not in the US interests to become involved either with our current financial situation, domestic problems and involvement with two warfronts already.

Keep in mind that the US does have a small contingent there and would easily be hit by North Korea should there be an escalation. That would drag the US into the conflict as there is no way that the US would not respond. Both North and South Korea know this and I don't think either side wants that to happen.

However, should the US become involved, it remains to be seen what China would/will do. China would prefer Korea as the location for a proxy war instead of Iran or Taiwan. But does China feel that their economy is strong enough to risk losing the exports to the US. And more importantly, can the US do without China's imports. Levi jeans are not even made in the US anymore, if that gives any indication to US dependence on foreign manufacturing.

Originally posted by grantbeed
Or will they do nothing?

Probably this, maybe even some sabre rattling but not much else will happen.

In the real world south korea are probably always shafting the north, really come on, don't you think. We know the anglo american empire is behind them, so you can assume they are always doing things to the north.