Euro on the Verge of REAL Crisis

Something big is up, and it’s possible the Euro is going into a real crisis within two months…Is this the next big market surprise ala Lehman? Not exactly like Lehman, but of the scale of that crisis that shook the entire world and almost caused worldwide bank shutdowns in Fall 2008? I am beginning to think so, and have been discussing this looming new worry for subscribers, IE we are right at the cusp of something big for the Euro and the European Union, not only financially but very much so politically. Imagine what a real Euro crisis would do to – everything!

Alert that Euro on verge of real crisis

We are so concerned by recent developments with Greece as a canary in the coal mine for the Euro that we just issued an alert to subscribers that we foresee a big blow up for the Euro in about roughly one month’s time. That is USD bullish and gold bullish, and bearish for about everything else out there. And this has many other implications for US Treasury bonds, the China Yuan revaluation issue and many others. This Euro situation is a huge potential bombshell, possibly outgunning all previous huge crises we faced over the last 2.5 years. That’s right, the Euro situation can outgun all the worst financial chaos we have seen so far, and lead to massive currency instability worldwide. This is a big deal if it happens as we foresee.

If you noticed in the last week or so of trading days, the USD and gold often went up together. Gold and the USD are fundamentally inverse, the USD pricing most commodities, even gold if you will – especially gold. That particular gold / USD inverse is tied to the fact that the USD is still the world’s paper reserve currency still and is not losing that status yet – and gold is the world’s precious metal reserve currency.

When the USD and gold rise together, trouble is near

Now, when both rise together, you can be assured that flight to safety and liquidity/cash is in effect…

The biggest reason for the USD rising at this time is flight to safety due to concerns about the Euro. And money coming out of emerging markets that are peaked out and falling. The Euro makes up over half of the US Dollar index currency basket. So, when the Euro has trouble, the USD is the biggest beneficiary along with gold.

‘This Ain’t happening.’

It became clear last week that the EU bailout with the IMF for Greece was basically hot air. Greek bond spreads rose last week to their highest level versus Germany last week; the bond markets saying the proposed Greek bailout deal was just smoke and mirrors. Since this Greece story has been out for months, it became clear that all the Club med states and the so called PIIGS (I don’t like that term but everyone is using it to refer to those states, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) are even larger versions of the looming Greek tragedy, with even larger debt problems. And their time is running out this year too.

Must have $20 billion within two months

Why is Greece causing such a stir, its economy is small compared to say Spain, who is next in line in this crisis…? Because Greece has to refinance about $50 billion worth of bonds over the next number of months, a big $20 billion chunk due to roll over in two months. Greece is now at the door of insolvency.

The fact that the EU cannot come to terms with a relatively small bailout of $50 billion for Greece shows the internal dissention in the EU over the bailouts of the Club Med guys (PIIGS), with Germany finding it politically impossible to sign a deal. Greece is being left to its own devices. That ain’t good. Not good at all.

Money is fleeing the country. A big surge of money flight to international banks in Switzerland, UK, Cyprus in the last week or so. In short, Greece is rapidly developing a sovereign bond crisis. That is nothing new, but the timing is, in light of the fact they need about $20 billion over the next two months. And money fleeing the country…is particularly worrisome.

There are many facets to this EU situation and they are bleak as hell for the Euro. This appears to be the next looming ‘big one’ crisis.

______beforeitsnews/story/30862/ALERT:_Euro_on_Verge_of_Real_Crisis.html

many dont know that the first great depression started in Europe...


[edit on 9-4-2010 by TheCoffinman]

UK election looming May 6th, current debate focused by all parties on domestic economics, seems very narrow (given our complex relationship with Euro/EU governance/EU trade and EU taxation), developments here totally excluded from the initial debate, but this could really mix things up and I don't think any of our major parties would welcome that - those taking a pro-Euro stance will appear to be drawing us closer to the quagmire, but those peddling an anti Euro stance may appear unrealistic/poor-statesmanship/judgement in the context of the current UK financial strains and existing commitments/trade dependencies/EU legal commitments...uh oh...also, higher dollar/oil (trend which you mention) is already being felt in UK with highest ever petrol price (get this US readers - prices per litre:
"UK Petrol Prices for Wednesday 7th Apr 2010
Avg. Min. Max.
Unleaded: 119.9p 114.9p 130.9p
Diesel: 120.6p 115.9p 132.9p
LRP: 121.5p 117.9p 125.9p
Super: 126.7p 117.9p 137.9p
LPG: 64.6p 54.9p 69.9p"

Source: www.petrolprices.com...

How will UK parties deal with a possible worsening in the EU crisis, and the knock on effects (higher dollar, increased pressure from EU partners for financial contributions (tax) from the UK, why aren't they debating that?

Edit: at time of posting £1.00 = approx $1.52 - or nearly $2.00 per litre for unleaded and increasing here...yippee!

[edit on 8-4-2010 by curioustype]

reply to post by TheCoffinman


Interesting read so far ...

Can you please post your source?

I'm happy to see this topic in ATS. Whatever mentioned here is unlikely to be blown out of proportion.

Just like Dubai debt crisis. They swept it under the carpet so quickly. They entertained everyone with news of Hamas official assassinated by Mossad agents.





[edit on 4 9 2010 by wisdomnotemotion]

reply to post by TheCoffinman


This could be a source for the article but it can be found in many other places..

What i don't understand is why you copied about 90% of the article and added only a single line at the bottom to reflect your own opinion. Is this the quality ATS is looking for??

Come on man, you can do better then that Coffinman!!!

Peace

Originally posted by wisdomnotemotion
I'm happy to see this topic in ATS. Whatever mentioned here is unlikely to be blown out of proportion.

Just like Dubai debt crisis. They swept it under the carpet so quickly. They entertained everyone with news of Hamas official assassinated by Mossad agents.

If you live in or do business in Dubai these days, the issue has hardly "been swept under the carpet." Just sayin'.

ATS skews towards "teh doom" to be sure, but let's face it...a lot of what people were predicting pre-economic-crisis has actually happened. Perhaps not as floridly and extravagently as the most extreme posts, but its no longer as easy to scoff at ATS and similar sites post-2008.

reply to post by silent thunder



Thanks. I understand. I mean what's being portrayed to the rest of the world. I live in Asian country. Everywhere the news are upbeat bragging about recovery.

reply to post by operation mindcrime


unfortunately when it comes to the market i trust others on whats bad and whats not bad. i really dont know enough about it to give a real explanation of the article myself so i just let the article do the talking and added some gloom and doom at the bottom. the article pretty much speaks for itself...

reply to post by TheCoffinman


Now you are being to modest!!

You usually provide your threads with interesting personal view points. That's why it struck me as weird that you approached this article in this way...

I really didn't mean anything by it, just an observation. Keep up the good work!!

Peace

i was one of those sounding the alarm for economic calamity leading up to 2008......

and i can tell you it's time to sound it again.....for 2011......a number of issues are coming due........high foreclosure's with new round of resets picking up now....commerical real estate loans needing new finanicing on properties that are underwater........special interests and congress collusion to squeeze out more $ out of people's wallets....( even as they are all voted out this november)....

..the political system is as hopelessly corrupt (conflict of intrest baked into any new legislation) as the financial system was in fall of 2008.

as michael hudson writes ....europe is in the midst of a meltdown and the problem and sides is who is gonna pay the debt's that can't be paid.....who is gonna take a "haircut/buzzcut" and what and how is the leverage used in this charade.

www.marketoracle.co.uk...

The battle lines are being drawn regarding how private and public debts are to be repaid. For nations that balk at repayment in euros, the creditor nations have their “muscle” waiting in the wings: the credit rating agencies. At the first sign a nation is balking in paying in hard currency, or even at the first hint of it questioning a foreign debt as improper, the agencies will move in to reduce a nation’s credit rating. This will increase the cost of borrowing and threaten to paralyze the economy by starving it for credit.

The most recent shot was fired n April 6 when Moody’s downgraded Iceland’s debt from stable to negative. “Moody’s acknowledged that Iceland might still achieve a better deal in renewed negotiations, but said the current uncertainty was hurting the country’s short-term economic and financial prospects.”[1]

us businesses continue to be starved for credit .......and the gov't is crowding out and will continue to crowd out private sector borrowing as deficits remain large.








[edit on 9-4-2010 by cpdaman]

These articles are basically playing into the hands of Goldman Sachs..

The fact is that in this situation, the big financial institutions in the US, which happen to also be the major shareholders in US dollar AND "Owners" of the US rating agencies.. are testing the EURO's resolve through speculation regarding the Greek "problem"..

In turn, this is stabilizing the dollar which is in equal "trouble"..

The Greek government have been saying that they do not need a bailout but the US institutions are saying the opposite in order to weaken market confidence in the tiny EU state in order to weaken confidence in the EURO and strengthen the dollar... this has been happening over and over for the past couple of months..

Its economic warfare.. and the above article is playing directly into it.. Even adding to it. Greece only needs another 11 billion EURO's and it still has a bond sale next tuesday so wait until then before seeing if the EU/IMF will be needed..

The EURO will not collapse.. with the Lisbon treaty just after coming into force, its an impossibility unless there is a massive global sell off of EURO's or EU state bonds which is not probable.. The EU are already using this to create a new system of Federal Economic Governance in the EUROZONE and it will take as much sovereignty as it wants because of this in order to stabilize the EURO and enable Dollar like control by the ECB and Monetary bodies..

Its almost exactly as it was predicted by EuroSceptic whistleblowers before the crises happened..

the treasury is basically doing a circle jerk with the fed and the primary dealers in order to print more money so it can be used to buy up gov't bonds used to finance the deficit....so they can keep interest rates down

we are sitting on a giant powder keg......and TENS of millons of people are going to be in deep crap..........the gov't MAY have one LAST trick up it's sleeve to kick the can down the road when 2011-12 hit.....they may try to confiscate PENSIONS / retirement funds and use this to service otherwise unservisable gov't debt to kick the can longer......these funds will be replaced with gov't iou's which will be of "sketchy value".

this is the most financially unstable period in the US HISTORY......in the Gdepression at least the damn gov't wasn't in danger of DEFAULTING and taking the currency down the toilet with it.......we have STRUCTURAL problems now and conflict of intrest that is interwoven in politics leaves the USA withouth a HOPE .....except to kick the can down the road one more time (in say 2 years) when the politico's can somehow confiscate trillions of retirement $$$ in exchange for some shady iou's.......and even if they able to confiscate the funds so as to service the debt.....the globe is so interwoven that soverign gov't defaults that are occuring over the next two years may do who knows what to the shaky financial system.