New Madrid fault zone: Earthquake due?

"Within the river basin, most of the
region has high LPI, where the probability that LPI >5 for a New Madrid type event is 80‐100%". NSGS


Hi all. I live in St. Louis, MO and there is always speculation of when the New Madrid fault is going to finally snap and give us the big shake. The fault itself is actually a good ways from St. Louis, but the fear is when the big one hits, we will still get damage here.

The fault zone averages several tremors a week, and some are actually felt here.
With all the attention on the EQ activity of late, I was just wondering some of your thoughts on the subject.

The NMSZ (New Madrid seismic zone) doesn't get much national attention, but I thought some of you may be interested.

According to the gravity anomalies map, the New Madrid fault area has similarly low gravity as do the areas of southern California and Haiti.

National Geospatial Intelligence Agency

Click on the map in the upper right at above site for the pdf zoom-able version.



[edit on 5/4/2010 by Chamberf=6]

I thought I should add:
Please keep in mind that I am in no way referring to a HAARP type event in any way what-so-ever.
Just a natural event.
The last MAJOR earthquake in the region was 1811 and it was huge. It re-routed the Mississippi River, caused even birds to fall out of the sky , and caused widespread devastation.
It is the type of event that forecasters have said that should happen about every 100-150 years or so, and it has been 199 years....

more info

[edit on 5/4/2010 by Chamberf=6]

reply to post by Chamberf=6


An earthquake in the New Madrid fault zone is long over due. I remember back in the 1980's I think, Scientist were saying the New Madrid was dead and of course they were wrong.

When she goes it will be a big one. Maybe even the biggest one ever.

~ Zeus

reply to post by Zeus2573
I'm thinking it could be bad when the time comes due. If the last "big one" was felt as far away as New York--well there is a much larger amount of buildings and people since then....

Yeah, without revealing to much I'm right on the fault line some of the time. Oh well, I'll be the first to start a thread on it before I bite the dust.

I am fairly close to the NMSZ and I have been thinking about it snapping a lot lately in light of all the earth quakes we have been experiencing. I have decided that no matter where I am or what I am doing if I feel even the slightest shake I am running outside and sitting down away from trees and buildings. I do not want to be smooshed or trapped. I do feel a strong sense that it may happen this year mostly because of all the others that keep going off. I mean we have had Haiti, Chilli, Japan, Mexico, and the Middle East has been going crazy lately so it just feels like it could happen at the NMSZ any day.

reply to post by Melissa101
I agree--it's been on my mind more lately because of all the big quakes recently. It seems the Earth's crust is a little grumpy . Be safe when (not if) it happens...

reply to post by Melissa101


If you make it outside when it happens, make sure you sit on some solid ground/bedrock.

you don't want to sink into the ground if 'soil liquefaction' occurs.

Well, I remember back in 1987 or 1988 the Courier Journal in Louisville did a huge piece on the New Madrid Fault (NMF) and said that experts believe there is a 100% chance of a major quake in the NMF in the next 50 years.

That was 20+ years ago now. So yes. And if an 8.0 hit the NMF, the devastation would be biblical. Memphis would be leveled. St. Louis would have major damage (The St. Louis Arch would fall experts said!) as well as Louisville would see major damage.

NONE of these cities has EQ building standards. Which is really bad.

Most of the bridges over the Mississippi (within a 200 mile radius of the quake) and a few over the Ohio would be gone. destroyed.

I pray this doesn't happen. But we all know it isn't a matter of IF, but a matter of WHEN..

[edit on 4/6/2010 by Pharyax]

I live on the fault line to... It is scary to think about.. We are long over due for the big one... I remember when I was in school me and my best friend did a video report on it and I didnt know much about it till I did that project.... I think when it happens the ground here will turn into soup and sink us, but hey I do live next to the river so I will fall off into it probably...ouch...

reply to post by Gouzze


As far as I know, the New Madrid fault zone consists primarily of bedrock. It's not the same as California. In California, small quakes are considered a good thing. The small quakes in California are said to release tension so to speak. When it comes to New Madrid, the opposite is true. Small quakes seem to indicate tension build up. This would also explain why when major quakes do occur on the New Madrid fault they are very destructive and can be felt for many miles.

~ Zeus

[edit on 6-4-2010 by Zeus2573]

I live in Iowa and I remember a year or two ago when there was a quake centered down in southern Illinois somewhere. Alot of people, me included, felt it up here,and I live roughly 450 miles away. I assume this quake had something to do with the New Madrid fault but I'm not for sure.

reply to post by peewee1263


Yes. I live in Paris, Illinois. I felt that quake too. There was a few tremors after the initial quake. Geologists claimed that this particular quake was part of the Wabash Valley fault system near Vincennes Indiana. Geologists also claim that the Wabash Valley fault system has nothing to do with the New Madrid fault system.

However, you can bet that if a sizable quake were to strike on the New Madrid fault zone, it would in fact affect the Wabash Valley fault system. So, in my personal opinion, the New Madrid fault zone and the Wabash Valley fault have everything to do with each other.

~ Zeus

I felt the old quake in the 80's 30 miles south of chicago and without looking up the info I believe it might have been a 2.9? not sure.

reply to post by eightonefive

Recent quake

Actually, this past February 10th, there was a 3.8 in Illinios off the NMSZ. Not too shabby for a minor quake in that area.

reply to post by Zeus2573
I agree that the faults affect each other. They are so close to each other that a big tremor in one would create tremors in its "neighbor".

Is there mention of a possible Phenomenon in the sky before this earthquake. Techmuseh predicted the earthquake 200 years ago and said a comet would be present in the sky before it happened. Also will the increase in the infrastructure in the area from 1811 possibly absorb some of the energy of the quake and reduce the area of impact.

reply to post by EarthquakeNewMadrid2010


Increase of structures in the area don't change the soil/rock that the "waves" would travel through.
There were lights reported during the 1811-1812 quakes, probably from compression/pressure on the rocks creating an electric charge--visible better at night but also possible during day if strong enoughand sustained pressure is exerted.