The only "V" shaped recovery out there.

www.roubini.com...

Yields on the 10 year US Treasury bond.

It's right on the edge of breaking out and some chart watchers are suggesting a close of over 4.2% would take the count to a yield of arounf 6.50%.

www.capitalspectator.com...

I'd hate to lock in to 6.50% if real inflation hit double digits...

On the other hand, anyone who bought those high-interest-rate 30 year bonds in the early 1980s made a killing after inflation subsided, so you never know.

sincerely apologize
accidentally hit the alert button
while trying to slide my slider
so sorry

Originally posted by boondock-saint
sincerely apologize
accidentally hit the alert button
while trying to slide my slider
so sorry

What does the Alert button Do? Does it alert the staff or something?

My computer screen just melted.

reply to post by silent thunder


Im pretty sure equities outperformed those bonds (any broad based index investing)

Take a look at the 10 year yield in the 90's.

Much higher than this and the market did pretty unbelievable if I remember correctly. Yeah, blah blah blah.. more information that doesn't mean anything. It is all hype to keep you clicking on hyperlinks etc.

Originally posted by Damian-007
What does the Alert button Do? Does it alert the staff or something?

It destroys some random planet near the crab nebula.


I found that article fascinating.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Take a look at the 10 year yield in the 90's.

Much higher than this and the market did pretty unbelievable if I remember correctly. Yeah, blah blah blah.. more information that doesn't mean anything. It is all hype to keep you clicking on hyperlinks etc.

Take a look at the yield on the 10 year just before the market crashed in 2008 - pretty much where it is now.

Debt level are far more extreme today and valuations are far more sensitive to interest rats than they were in the 90's, or even 80's for that matter.

[edit on 6-4-2010 by leo123]

for my thinking.... i won't pay $95. for a $100. bond


i'll wait till the bond sells for $65. for that $100. maturity value.''

keep those miserly bond rates which for the present are selling for so much because of the bonds so called 'safety' i.e. assurance that it is Liquid



bonds right now

reply to post by leo123


So you would agree this totally means nothing then?

I don't see any other way of thinking about it.

1) 90's were higher than this = massively long bull run

2) 2008 same bond rates = market tank

End results = this means nothing

I don't trust technical analysis past day trading.

I have yet to hear a fundamental reason that yields would go that high that isn't "US has big debt."

I'm going to go and say that the 10 year note won't pass 5% this year. Sadly I don't have the money to put there.

scwizard:

The thing about technical analysis is whether you believe in it or not huge numbers of institutions program their trading computers to follow it to some degree so you are forced not to ignore it as it does move markets.

Insitutions do move markets, but I don't think they have their entire reserve of 10 year notes running on auto pilot.

Technical analysis does work, but before making a long term trade, you want to have the technicals and the fundamentals on your side.

Originally posted by scwizard
Insitutions do move markets

If you think so.