Jobs, Bonds & the Economy, page 1

Jobs, Bonds & the Economy, page

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Topic started on 2-4-2010 @ 07:58 PM by leo123

Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco CEO and Co-CIO best explains where my mind is today despite the odd CNBC #tard trying to stop him from giving his opinion.

Basically what Mohamed is saying is that we have had a massive government stimulus program in place that has "artificially" propped up the economy and the stock market, but the question remains, can the economy sustain itself once the government stimulus hands itself off to the real economy? Which *IS* coming.

There is no one "deciding" where the market will go and it *WILL* come down to fundamentals whether you want to believe it or not. Focus in on his discussion about "cyclical" verses "STRUCTURAL".

There is NO playbook here for the first time in modern economic history.

Note that the bond market was open today - it sleeps for no one. ;D

www.cnbc.com...

[edit on 2-4-2010 by leo123]

[edit on 2-4-2010 by leo123]

reply posted on 2-4-2010 @ 09:22 PM by Sibilance

That was a great interview. The newscasters were angry because El Erian was not on board with their official story.

El Erian had a really interesting column in the Financial Times. He is making the point that the MSM does not want to hear: the government is tinkering with the necessary weeding out of bad debt and toxic assets. When this happens, we are off the play book and in an un-chartered territory. That was his point. They did not want to hear it. He did not give the world is falling apart story, just saying things are very uncertain with this type of heavy-handed intervention from the government.

What we will have to face soon is a US government that is going to have to come to grips with raising taxes AND decreasing spending. GASP! Austerity. No one wants to hear that. This other side of the story is unacceptable. That is what this interview showed. Great post.

reply posted on 2-4-2010 @ 09:32 PM by time91

He seemed very to the point, and gave a good interview. CNBC along with the government and almost all other media outlets and businesses claim that the economy is great, nothing to see here, move along.
This was a blatant attempt by people in media to influence someone in finance, on their views of the economy. Two of the quotes that stuck out to me(said by CNBC) were "It seems like you're looking for a negative storyline, here, mohammed" AND "Are you denying the strength we're seeing here?". They were getting frustrated that he wasn't agreeing with them.

reply posted on 2-4-2010 @ 10:30 PM by GreenBicMan

He says what he has to for a reason.

He has been wrong continuously about the market over the past year. I wouldn't put too much stock into what he is saying currently, although I do not doubt that at some point there will be a "test". We will pass this test though.

reply posted on 2-4-2010 @ 11:19 PM by drew hempel

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Wrong for a whole year of government bailout of the rich? Oh I'm sorry that is your constituency isn't it? haha.

Yeah so there's the real economy and then there's the spoiled rich needing their hand outs. Welfare for the rich is way more than for the poor -- so all we have to do is stop kissing the backsides of the wealthy -- but then the rich do OWN D.C. don't they?

reply posted on 2-4-2010 @ 11:34 PM by GreenBicMan

reply to post by drew hempel

You would be quite foolish if you didn't think PIMCO has an agenda like every other talking head on TV. You are getting led into the slaughter if you do not do your own homework.

reply posted on 2-4-2010 @ 11:39 PM by drew hempel

reply to post by GreenBicMan

As if I said that! haha. All I'm saying is that the rich are scum! That's it! My message is very simple. To blame it on the Fed -- I realize that attacks your famous uncle Fed dude -- is one thing -- to blame it on Wall Street banks is another. Oh wait the Fed is wall street banks. haha. The Fed is not federal!

I was almost mislead by your uncle again. Oh my!

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 12:39 AM by leo123

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by drew hempel

You would be quite foolish if you didn't think PIMCO has an agenda like every other talking head on TV. You are getting led into the slaughter if you do not do your own homework.

GreenBicMan:

Do focus in on his discussion about the difference between those who believe in a normal, historical "CYCLICAL" recovery verses those who zoom in on the "STRUCTURAL" problems that still exist that are are not going away.

I suggest you ignore the latter at your own peril.

My 2 bits.

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 12:45 AM by GreenBicMan

reply to post by leo123

None of what you listed means anything to me.

I am only interested in technical analysis of markets and fundamentals are a joke.

Take a look at the statistical probabilities of economic "guru's" forecasting correctly over a long enough period of time. I have seen this chart somewhere and it is totally abysmal after so many samples.

That's why I trust no ones judgment but my own.

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 12:49 AM by GreenBicMan

Found it

I wouldn't bother reading the whole thing but just take a look at the charts. I always say you can flip your own coin instead of having someone else do it for you. I feel that I flip a coin better than the odds should allow IMO.

www.ritholtz.com...

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 12:53 AM by leo123

reply to post by GreenBicMan

"None of what you listed means anything to me."

Apparently so.

Don't be so GD naive junior, debt is debt and it doesn't go away. Governments and banks can only hide their defaulting debt for so long and then it blows.

Take off your glasses and see reality - because it's rot is still out there.

Watch the bond markets - never forget that, it rules the world. The bond vigilantes of yesteryear are back and they are going to take down all the debt bad boys worldwide - wait for it.

[edit on 3-4-2010 by leo123]

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 12:59 AM by GreenBicMan

reply to post by leo123

Yeah, ok man. Thats why I was able to call the bottom within a few hundred dow points and Im guessing I will call the top this year at SP 500 at 1350.

I was also able to call the dollar getting much much stronger while the equity market still climbs. Think that is coincidence? I don't give a damn about what you think or what debt who holds and why. None of that makes any difference to big money players and that is all I care about. I follow their trends (if I was fully invested) which I hope to take advantage of in the near future.

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 01:04 AM by drew hempel

reply to post by GreenBicMan

We've got a live one! haha. Wow you can follow the latest trendy financial wizardry! Oooh -- and do you even have to pay income tax? Or is that too normal for you! haha. Predicts the stock market but can't afford to pay normal taxes. Another billion brought to you by the working class! Puh-lease.

I can predict that the rich will continue to be scum -- parasites sucking the blood of those who actually produce wealth -- not wipe out economies with speculative trading in debt.

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 01:07 AM by leo123

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by leo123

Yeah, ok man. Thats why I was able to call the bottom within a few hundred dow points and Im guessing I will call the top this year at SP 500 at 1350.

GreenBicMan:

Stop trying to tell me why you are a one or two shot young buck hero - you are simply discrediting yourself in my mind. I have 30 years post graduate in this game with the senior firms - hello?

I remind you once again, the bond market rules the world - don't ever forget that.

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 01:23 AM by GreenBicMan

reply to post by leo123

Post graduate?.. lol

The market is an education that isn't taught in the classroom, I am very unimpressed actually by most "economic scholars". They are usually wrong, that is why they teach instead of making exponentials trading.

And you certainly do not seem intelligent enough from conversation from past IMO sorry to say to lend any credence to what you are saying. This will be my last post on this thread either way. Have a good night.

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 01:30 AM by leo123

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by leo123

Post graduate?.. lol

The market is an education that isn't taught in the classroom, I am very unimpressed actually by most "economic scholars". They are usually wrong, that is why they teach instead of making exponentials trading.

And you certainly do not seem intelligent enough from conversation from past IMO sorry to say to lend any credence to what you are saying. This will be my last post on this thread either way. Have a good night.

Sorry about your inferiority ego problems Junior, but do remember what I told you:

"The bond market rules the world".

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 10:12 AM by wisdomnotemotion

reply to post by leo123

I have the same view about the current situation. In layman terms, it's about credit deferment after deferment. Not sure how long it can sustain. Looks endless.

US dishonest regulators are cooking the books in broad daylight. China should withdraw all financial investments from them.

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 10:25 AM by drew hempel

reply to post by wisdomnotemotion

Yeah except China really means Kissinger.

www.guardian.co.uk...

Since the sub-prime crisis that began on Main Street USA grew to engulf the global economy, China's leaders have repeatedly expressed concerns about US policy. December's $34bn sell-off made only a tiny dent in Beijing's total holdings of US assets, which amount to well over $1tn when stakes in American companies, as well as treasury bills, are taken into account.

reply posted on 3-4-2010 @ 11:45 PM by leo123

reply to post by drew hempel

Drew:

Agreed - but that sudden move on the 10 year should serve as a warning - which it was likely intended to do by both the Japanese and the Chinese.

Politics at it's finest.

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