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The mysterious Dr. Li, the man who brought the American economy to it's knees

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posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 11:55 AM
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Originally posted by MysterE
reply to post by Merriman Weir
 


I see what you're saying, I do not discount the roll we played in the crisis. However, the circumstances surrounding this man are fishey to say the least.

-E-


These things always have an element of 'truth' about them: it's what makes the arguments plausible in the first place. Sometimes all it needs is for the person to be in the right/wrong place at the right/wrong time and that's enough and it's surprising how quickly it stacks-up.

As I said, I'd be interested to see whether this conspiracy gains momentum and the kind of views that manifest around it. It's often fairly easy to see where the foundations of someone's inclinations towards an idea are grounded by their view of the conspiracy itself. Just look as to how many conspiracies are framed in left vs. right paradigms, East vs. West and so on by the supporters and perpetuateors of conspiracies. It's that which I'm always more interested in.




posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 12:24 PM
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disreguard this post

-E-

[edit on 2-4-2010 by MysterE]



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 12:40 PM
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It sounds to me like JPMorganChase hired this guy to come up with this complex mathematical formula they could use to con investors into believing these bundled mortgages were safe, even though they were clearly junk.

What this shows is intent to defraud, which could be used to charge everyone in on the scheme with crimes against the pubic.

At what point in time is the federal government going to start doing its job, and start policing the investment banking industry to stop these fraudulent business activities, and start recovering money from these crooks.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 01:15 PM
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reply to post by poet1b
 


I think you are right. At the end of the OP you see how his calculations were SOOO far off it is ridiculous. And this guy is a math wiz.

-E-



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 01:41 PM
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I have to add looking at how far off he was in his math again that this was at best a case of severe negligence and stupidity by the financial industry to take his calculations at face value with little to no proofing and at the other end, and much more likely, a purposeful plot to really take the system and some people to the cleaners and rob them blind under the cover of the "law". I mean really it would have to be near im[possible for no one to notice how far his calculations were off but presenting this gave the people on the inside a way to make the sub-prime market look viable and with that knowledge take advantage of those who didn't know better.

I also don't think that it has anything to do with him being of any different ethnic group or nationality. Instead he is a member of a select group financier/bankers who have been sticking it to the rest of the world for hundreds of years. He just gave them a new tool to rob more people out of their hard earned money and then faded back out of prominence having served his purpose.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 02:19 PM
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I'm not sure that this conspiracy theory is the correct interpretation of the data.

Li's numbers:

were 0.34 percent; 0.49 percent; and 0.88 percent
represent the chances that a "large" number of the mortgages default within the same period.

The "actual numbers" the author gives:

turned out to be 48.73 percent; 56.10 percent; and 66.67 percent
represent the percent of the mortgages from each layer which actually did default.

Presumably, the large percentages given by the author constitute a "large" number of the mortgages.(This notion of a "large number" of mortgages is arbitrary, and was certainly defined by Li, but that the specific number is that constitutes "large" is not availible in the article)

However, these two sets of numbers are not at all measures of the same thing. Li's numbers describe the probability of a large numbers of defaults occuring at once, and the "actual numbers" from article describe the percent of defaults that actually happened at once.

The actually defaults - which occured simultaniously at the rate described by the author - are an instance of the "unlikely" scenario predicted by Li. Obviously, the true odds that many defaults occur at once is 100%, because that's what actually happened. It is still possible, though, that at the time that Li made his calculations he was using an accurate formula, and his prediction of the odds may have been exactly right. They predicted that the massive default situation was unlikely, but then it happened anyway. It's unlikely that any single person wins the lottery, yet it happens to someone despite these tremendous odds against them. It doesn't mean that an evaluation that individuals odds beforehand is "wrong" just because it ascribes a very small probability of winning to them; it is undoubtly correct as a probability beforehand.

The information in the article does not imply that Li's numbers were wrong at the time that he came up with them. The larger percentages listed by the author are not even meant to be comparable to Li's numbers - they represent totally different things. Since it remains to be proven that Li's numbers were actually wrong at the time that he produced them, we are a very long way from determining that he intentionally produced very misrepresentitive numbers in order to facilitate economic collapse.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 02:24 PM
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reply to post by MysterE
 


This is outstanding. Out-Effing-Standing. Good work.

I don't want to be an "I told you so", but I did (not the OP, but everyone in general). In 2007, before the financial collapse, i authored a thread (China Using "Soft Entry" Tactics To Subvert The US?). It recieved all of 2 flags and 2 replies from user GWHint.

Here we are 3 years later, and it seems as though it proves true.

China has repeatedly performed hostile actions against the US. Poisonous food, animal food, milk, toys, candy....they are trying to subvert us softly, so as to not destroy the strength that we have. They want to take us over from within, like a parasite.

Be very leary and very suspicious.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 02:29 PM
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Interesting!

I doubt the Chinese were behind it though, those behind our government probably paid him to do it.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 02:37 PM
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JPMOrgan deserves it's fair share of the blame as well. They were just drooling over a way to package these morgages for sale. This formula allowed for that, then BOOM!

-E-



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 04:09 PM
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What is hard for me to swallow is the fact that we have so many smart mathematicians in our country and nobody saw it coming. Also, I must add that the auditor firms like Arthur Andersen were in bed with Wall Street and other key players from the above. They turned their faces the other way and did not anything to stop it while getting substantial amount of money for their service. They must be investigated but I am a nobody.

Mr. Lee did his job right because we did not do ours right.

-r



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 04:19 PM
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But which came first, the chicken or the egg?

Who's at fault, the bankers for lending the money, or the people for taking loans they knew they wouldn't be able to afford?



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 04:21 PM
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reply to post by MysterE
 

Hmmmmm... the north-american analysis about their economic crisis just became a "blame it on the chinese guy" theory... I just thought that George W. Bush's administration was responsible by american ruin... But I was wrong... The guilt is of the mysterious Dr. Li aka "Shao-Lin ghost" sent by "The Hidden Dragon Emperor" that awoke from his sleep as terracotta warrior, to bring destruction to American empire...

[edit on 2-4-2010 by ucalien]



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 04:48 PM
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reply to post by ucalien
 


Yeah. Its funny like that. You can only blame so much on GW Bush.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 05:19 PM
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reply to post by MysterE
 


I've read another article mentioning some woman at Morgan Stanley, but it was a different derivatives instrument, linked to debt, mortgage. Anyway, here is the wikipedia definition of a CDS, interesting to note that the market was quite un-regulated (Greenspan).

CDS - Credit Default Swaps


Forms of Credit Default Swaps had been in existence from at least the early 1990s, but the modern Credit Default Swaps were invented in 1997 by a team working for JPMorgan Chase.[12][13][14] They were designed to shift the risk of default to a third party, and were therefore less punitive in terms of regulatory capital.[15] The first CDS involved JPMorgan selling the credit risk of Exxon to the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development.[16] Credit Default Swaps became largely exempt from regulation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) with the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, which was also responsible for the Enron loophole.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 05:23 PM
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Just a few things... First, this guy hyas been discussed here in the past. DO a search, the threads exist. Number two, he is very much alive and well living in Beijing working as a financial anylyst, I believe.

Number 3, apply some logic... Why would China want our system collapsed? So that their nearly trillion dollars in bond holdings are worth crap? Or so their industry collapses because they have lost their largest trading partner? This just doesn't ft.

More likely, the guy was hired and was given more credit than was deserved. It wasn't his fault that the system collapsed. It was the fault of the greedy bankers that thought it was a good idea to securitize crappy debt and sell it as AAA rated! End of story.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 05:27 PM
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reply to post by OnceReturned
 


Yeah, what happened was like a sigma 7 event, highly unlikely i.e a fat-tails. People like Nicholas Taleb have highlighted the flaws using a normal distrubution to model/estimate risk. Black Scholes, the commonly used model to price derivatives, use a normal distrubution.

Example skewed distribution
www.skew-lognormal-cascade-distribution.org...



[edit on 2-4-2010 by rhines]



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 05:43 PM
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Hmm Li is the Illuminati bloodline of China I believe? While this may be a factor of some kind. The basis of the thread is still that stupid people make mistakes and we suffer the consequences. I don't believe that's at all correct. I believe the NWO orchestrate. Now they may utilize someone or infiltrate someone or use someone as misdirection, but the stage is scripted.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 05:58 PM
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I actually remember this story when it happened but then it sort of dropped off the radar after he disappeared.

It was a commie plot all right but it wasn't the commies in Beijing that hatched it, it was the commies in our government and their wall street cronies like JP Morgan etc.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 06:08 PM
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Originally posted by poet1b

From my understanding, the Chinese abandoned communism about twenty years ago, so this can't be anti-communism rhetoric.

It does provide a step in the whole mortgage crisis scam of the last decade creating the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression.



where did you get that nonsense from? they are communist China.



posted on Apr, 2 2010 @ 06:14 PM
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reply to post by kozmo
 


"do a search", "use some logic". Come on kozmo, I'm sure we can discuss this more civalized than that. See my back ad forth with merriman weir, we couldn't be further from agreeing, but I respect his opinion because of his demeanor.

-E-

[edit on 2-4-2010 by MysterE]



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