DoE expects oil production to drop by 2011

While the DoE is "not acknowledging peak oil" they describe exactly the scenarios that have been put forward by the peak oil community. The main difference is that they believe we might enter a plateau of oil production and then a drop-off in 2011. The peak oil community recognizes that we have been in a plateau since '05.



Washington Considers A Decline Of World Oil Production As Of 2011
www.countercurrents.org...

The U.S. Department of Energy admits that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 “if the investment is not there”, according to an exclusive interview with Glen Sweetnam, main official expert on oil market in the Obama administration.

This warning on oil output issued by Obama’s energy administration comes at a time when world demand for oil is on the rise again, and investments in many drilling projects have been frozen in the aftermath of the tumbling of crude prices and of the financial crisis.

Glen Sweetnam, director of the International, Economic and Greenhouse Gas division of the Energy Information Administration at the DoE, does not say that investments will not be “there”. Yet the answer to the issue of knowing when, where and in which quantities additional sources of oil should be put on-stream remains widely “unidentified” in the eyes of the most prominent official analyst on energy inside the Obama administration.

The DoE dismisses the “peak oil” theory, which assumes that world crude oil production should irreversibly decrease in a nearby future, in want of suffisant fresh oil reserves yet to be exploited. The Obama administration of Energy supports the alternative hypothesis of an “undulating plateau”. Lauren Mayne, responsible for liquid fuel prospects at the DoE, explains : “Once maximum world oil production is reached, that level will be approximately maintained for several years thereafter, creating an undulating plateau. After this plateau period, production will experience a decline.”

Glen Sweetnam, who heads the publication of DoEs annual International Energy Outlook, agrees that what he identifies as a possible decline of liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 could be the first stage of the “undulating plateau” pattern, which will start “once maximum world oil production is reached”.

M. Auzanneau - After 2011 and until 2015, do you acknowledge that if adequate investment is not there, a chance exists that we may experience a first stage of decline in the “undulating plateau” you describe ?

GLEN SWEETNAM - I agree, if the investment is not there, a chance exists that we may experience a decline. If we do, I would expect investment in new capacity to increase if there is still demand for oil.

Glen Sweetnam acknowledges the possibility of a close-by and unexpected fall of world liquid fuels production in an email interview, after several requests of details about a round-table of oil economists that Mr Sweetnam held on April 7, 2009 in Washington, DC.

The DoE April 2009 round-table, untitled “Meeting the Growing Demand for Liquid (fuels)“, was semi-public. Yet it remained unnoticed and unjustly, as it put forward forecasts that are far more pessimistic than any analysis the DoE has ever delivered.

Page 8 of the presentation document of the round-table, a graph shows that the DoE is expecting a decline of the total of all known sources of liquid fuels supplies after 2011.

The graph labels as “unidentified” the additional supply projects needed to fill in a gap that is expected to grow after 2011 between rising demand and decline of known sources of supply that the DoE supposes will start that year. The declining production foreseen by the DoE concerns the total of existing sources of liquid fuels plus the new production projects that are supposed to come on-stream before 2012.

The DoE predicts that the decline of identified sources of supply will be steady and sharp : - 2 percent a year, from 87 million barrels per day (Mbpd) in 2011 to just 80 Mbpd in 2015. At that time, the world demand for oil and other liquid fuels should have climbed up to 90 Mbpd, according to the presentation document.

“Unidentified” additional liquid fuels projects would therefore have to fill in a 10 Mbpd gap between supplies and demand within less than 5 years. 10 Mbpd is almost the equivalent of the oil production of Saudi Arabia, world top producer with 10.8 Mbpd.

Originally posted by wanderingwaldo
“Unidentified” additional liquid fuels projects would therefore have to fill in a 10 Mbpd gap between supplies and demand within less than 5 years. 10 Mbpd is almost the equivalent of the oil production of Saudi Arabia, world top producer with 10.8 Mbpd.

HEMP!

If 6% of our land was used to grow hemp, it could be converted into enough power to fuel ALL of the United States energy needs, eliminating our dependence on oil, natural gas, nuclear plants, etc..

California is on the ballot for the legalization of marijuana in November. When (hopefully) this passes, I forsee only a years time before other states follow precedent. States are hurting financially, and after they see Cali making BILLIONS from the THOUSANDS of benefits from hemp, surely they will follow suit.

HEMP FOR WORLD PEACE

reply to post by unityemissions


Ditto.

I'd like to add that 16 more states are now considering the legalization of Medical Marijuana.

14 states have already legalized Medical Marijuana. Add another 16 which gives us 30 total. Give it a few months and the remaining states will move forward with legalization.

Soon the federal government will eventually give up the war on Cannabis/Marijuana.

[edit on 30-3-2010 by magnetix]

This is SUPER SCARY
Economicaly...remember two years ago when the stuff was about to go real bad and it was because people had bad loans and stuff....what I thought was completely amazing was that nobody talked about how it was precipitated by gas prices (speaking for my area) that doubled. Ya know, everyone made it through that summer the best they could, carpooling, public transportation, trucking companies increased prices to cover costs...products started costing more as a result... Then, after tightening the belts as long as we could, then the mortgage crises hit, not that we had chosen to live beyond our means, but because the costs of our neccesaties jumped so much, so quick.

Been waiting for that double dip in the ol' recession?
What will happen to an economy that is fighting to climb back when it has to do it with overinflated energy costs?

I guess thats why we are gonna start drilling huh? (which I am not a fan of, I prefer to save ours and use theirs dontcha know...but...I also didn't like it when my fuel costs doubled in two months)
feeds.nytimes.com...
"obama to open offshore...drilling"

And for you silly potheads, buring weeds isn't the answer to everything...grow the plants, use up soil, refine the plants to get the oil wastes energy, burning the oil in cars produces icky's for the environment.
But keep thinking toward alternative fuels...or fuel cells...put your Heads together and come up with a battery that stores more, and pollutes less when made and discarded.
Then you have saved the world.


edit..but as far as a biomass to make liquid fuel....algea is totally the way to go...doesn't use soil that should be used for food...and grows quick

[edit on 31-3-2010 by Xcouncil=wisdom]

I definitely see marijuana as a source of fiber, food and medicine going forward. I've heard estimates that marijuana can be bred to replace up to 75% of currently prescribed medications, with no ill health effects and zero chance of death due to complications. This is great news, as medications are very energy intensive. I am keeping an eye on the CA legalization front and the largest hurdle I see going forward is religious ideology. I have passed out fliers for the legalization act and those most likely to scoff at the idea were fundamentalist Christians and Jews.

I agree that algae holds some promise going forward as a fuel source. I would feel much better if it were out of the laboratory yet. One major hurdle was recently overcome was making an algae that deposited lipids outside of itself rather than in itself. This means that the algae can remain in place, rather than having to be burst, filtered, and having the oil separated. I'll cross my fingers but won't hold my breath.

[edit on 31-3-2010 by wanderingwaldo]

reply to post by wanderingwaldo


Here is a thread you might be interested in...in regards decriminalizing pot
www.abovetopsecret.com...

and then there is this about Obama's answer to us running out of oil...drill offshore!!
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Offshore oil exploration it is expensive to find, expensive to pump, polluting, dangerous, and the projected payoff is not very large. The highly touted offshore leases made available when the Bush Administration lifted the drilling moratorium in 2008 resulted in very tepid interest. Of the 3,412 tracts offered, only 347 bids were received . The dollar amounts of those bids were cumulatively hundreds of millions of dollars short of the values projected by the ideological proponents of drilling. In 2009, results were even more lackluster. This is due in large part to the expense involved in recovering the oil and the large acreage of unused offshore leases already held by oil companies.

Hi! my husband and I were talking about the clean energy problem, a few weekends ago. We thought someone should deisgn a car who's roof, car hood, and trunk collect solar power from the sun. The problem he said was the size of the battery needed to store the power would have to be enormous and heavy. A golf cart has several batteries in it, a full charge only lasts 18 miles, and then you have to plug it in to an electric source again. The golf car also goes very slow. Corn, oil, water, algae, garbage, wind, are all unpredictable, unclean, or not renewable forms of energy.
The sun is clean renewable energy. We need to create new batteries.
The problem with splitting hydrogen off water is that we would use up our water so that is a very bad idea.

Originally posted by Xcouncil=wisdom
And for you silly potheads, buring weeds isn't the answer to everything...grow the plants, use up soil, refine the plants to get the oil wastes energy, burning the oil in cars produces icky's for the environment.
[edit on 31-3-2010 by Xcouncil=wisdom]

Silly potheads Get real, man. Cannibus is a weed, and will grow in just about any environment. It's quite the reliable source, and much less of a pollutant than gasoline or diesel. Not only this, it can be mass produced with no further research in technology. It's ready to go right now! Using energy to refine hemp can come from what's already been converted.

The fact that you used the term "silly potheads" shows your ignorance. Is everyone who smokes a pothead? Are people who advocate the reindustrialization of hemp all pot smokers?

Oh yeah, the problem with using algae is that it's not a reliable source, as it requires constant exposure to the sun to multiply. Weeds can weather a bad spell of weather without issue.

[edit on 31-3-2010 by unityemissions]

Originally posted by unityemissions

Silly potheads

Get real, man. Cannibus is a weed, and will grow in just about any environment. It's quite the reliable source, and much less of a pollutant than gasoline or diesel. Not only this, it can be mass produced with no further research in technology. It's ready to go right now!

The fact that you used the term "silly potheads" shows your ignorance. Is everyone who smokes a pothead? Are people who advocate the reindustrialization of hemp all pot smokers?

Oh yeah, the problem with using algae is that it's not a reliable source, as it requires constant exposure to the sun to multiply. Weeds can weather a bad spell of weather without issue.

The thing is if you are going for oil output per acre there are much better yields that can be achieved from plants other than hemp. Sunflowers, peanuts, soybeans, rapeseed, coconut, and palm oil would be better options.

Some typical yields
Algae estimated between 300-3000 gallons / acre
Palm oil 508 gallons/acre
Coconut 230 gallons/acre
Rapeseed 102 gallons/acre
Soy 59.2-98.6 gallons/acre
Peanut 90 gallons/acre
Sunflower 82 gallons/acre
Hemp 26 gallons/acre

A poorly producing Rapeseed plantation would probably still double the output in oil compared with a optimally producing hemp plantation.

[edit on 31-3-2010 by wanderingwaldo]

This presentation by James Howard Kunstler < who he is..
at the Commonwealth Club of California on peak oil is a well documented eye opener, enjoy the wisdom you shall gain. MP3 Lecture on Peak Oil here

"The American public is sleepwalking into an era of energy scarcity"


[edit on 31-3-2010 by seataka]

reply to post by wanderingwaldo


All that I've read is that it's much more efficient than something like corn. I'm definitely open minded to alternatives, though. Would you mind supplying a link to the source you used for those numbers? I'm trying to find these stats online, but no dice so far. Thanks.

Nevermind. I found it. It's seems you're correct.

Biodiesel Yields by crop

[edit on 31-3-2010 by unityemissions]

Originally posted by unityemissions
All that I've read is that it's much more efficient than something like corn.

Corn makes good food, but is one of the last things you want to use as a feedstock for fuel. The only people who are running around touting corn as fuel are corn farmers, corn lobbyists, and politicians in states with lots of corn farmers and corn lobbyists.