What really happens if/once the USD collapses?

I've seen so many different interpretations of what it would mean for the U.S. and it's citizens if/once the USD collapses. Some say that it will bring martial law and we'll all be in FEMA camps. I no longer follow this train of thought. Others say that it will bring about a one world government by causing some sort of chain reaction that topples the current world financial structure. Well I don't follow this train of thought either since other countries seem to be hard at work creating a new reserve currency.

I think that massive inflation and an eventual collapse of our economy is a done deal. I'm just trying to get a feel for what comes when the USD becomes useless. Will we simply go to another currency and continue on, or does the end of USD mean the end of the U.S?

Thoughts?

[edit on 23-3-2010 by unityemissions]

It would become too expensive for companies to sell jobs overseas because the dollar would be worth so little they would be paying a ton of money for foreign labor, and it would be cheaper to hire Americans again.

Manufacturing would boom as our products would be really cheap compared to the rest of the worlds, so our exports would increase.

Travel into the USA would increase as it would be really cheap for foreigners to go on vacation here, but it would be very expensive for US citizens to travel abroad.

Just some ideas from an economics major

reply to post by LOLZebra


Wow! Something that's both not doom and gloom and has sound reasoning to it! Amazing. I thought those days might have been over. Thanks for the input.

Ah, I just realized that all of those things would come at the price of our standard of living decreasing accordingly. Guess it's not such a rosy picture after all.

[edit on 23-3-2010 by unityemissions]

Yep, standard of living will drop.

Expect to pay something like $250 for a sandwich or maybe $50 per gallon of gas. At least we'll be making a ton of money right

Sort of similar to the people in Indonesia, they make 300,000 a week!
But a taxi ride costs 15,000
A fast food lunch costs 100,000

You get the idea.

reply to post by LOLZebra


Yeah, I get it. My understanding is that once hyperinflation kicks in, we'll never be getting fair wages again. Guess I'm lucky to finally have convinced my parents to start investing in silver ASAP. We should be able to make the transition without major hick-ups, assuming 1,000 oz of silver or so will be sufficient.

reply to post by unityemissions


We will never see hyperinflation like that in the USA. This is mostly due to our credit markets and how you could systematically hedge or steer clear of this scenario I should say if you were the Federal Reserve.

You will see by the end of the year once we start to raise rates some things changing. Mostly our dollar getting stronger and home sales start to pick up because no one wants to miss the lower possible rates. That is why you are seeing right now a lot of inventories dropping in hard hit states. Otherwise there would be no incentive at all to purchase a house if you knew rates would be low forever etc. These are mostly speculators btw, and also this is getting off topic.

To really answer your question you will never pay $1000 for a loaf of bread in the USA before the year 3000.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Thanks for the post, GBM. You always seem to go against the grain here, and I'm thankful for the additional perspective.

My very, very limited understanding is that when interest rates go up banks will have an incentive to start loaning money again and inflation of the money supply + deflation of the USD will be actualized, but what do I really know anyways..

reply to post by unityemissions


Banks are getting a little quasi screwed if that was possible currently because of the regulation they are under and they do not want bad loans right now. That is a consequence of what has happened previously.

It is more like the borrowers incentive to get a loan before rates go up than the banks incentive to lend more when rates are high.

Plus you can counteract this by shorting long maturity yields if you are taking on too much risk on one side of the curve. Banks really make money no matter what so it's more like what does Uncle Ben want to do and how does he want to orchestrate it. IMO he has been doing a good job by not speaking much and letting the market do all the talking for him.

Not to mention when you have guys like James Bullard (St Louis Fed Pres) and Thomas Hoenig (Kansas City Fed Pres) easing rhetoric currently about having to raise rates any nearer than an "extended period of time" that also helps the market climb.

[edit on 24-3-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by unityemissions
reply to post by LOLZebra

 

Yeah, I get it. My understanding is that once hyperinflation kicks in, we'll never be getting fair wages again. Guess I'm lucky to finally have convinced my parents to start investing in silver ASAP. We should be able to make the transition without major hick-ups, assuming 1,000 oz of silver or so will be sufficient.

Silver is a good investment, however guns and ammo along with water purifying equipment is abit more valuable to me. Silver is a "just in case" investment for many including me...

reply to post by AzoriaCorp


Guns, ammo, and a few months of food for family is a given. I'm selling my truck, buying literally a ton of food and putting it in a storage facility prepaid for a year. This should be enough for 5 people to live off for a year, or 20 people for 3 months. If it comes down to it, my family will have food and a few close friends can be helped out as well. If not, oh well. I feel it's better safe than sorry in an unknown and potentially deadly scenario like what seems to be coming. I just think it's a horrible combo to have the possible food shortages coming late this year along with a possible collapse of USD. It would be a double whammy.

[edit on 24-3-2010 by unityemissions]

reply to post by unityemissions


Food shortages in the USA plus dollar collapse at the end of this year is Glenn Beck territory.

You should always have plan "b" though.. although I would not be devoting a meaningful percentage of my net worth to this "man bunker" if you know what I mean.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Glenn Beck. I don't listen to that fool. The USDA has reported more disaster areas for crops this season than in decades to my understanding. At the same time they are expecting higher yields than last year. If supply and demand were able to do it's thing, I don't think it would be much of an issue, but since we're acting like all is well I tend to think otherwise.

reply to post by unityemissions


Hmm..

Well look to commodity future markets in times like this. Feeder cattle has been on a tear LOL.

But seriously there is nothing forecasting this that I can see and I am sure that would most def. be priced in right now so don't worry. We will still be eating by the end of this year and hopefully it wont be the tadpoles outta the pond in my backyard.

I'm going to learn how to ride a motorcycle and join a gang of wandering cannibals. Problem solved! Seriously, The decline will probably be more of a long, slow sinking than a catastrophic collapse. People will adapt. They won't like it, but they will eventually get used to the U.S. being a third world country.

reply to post by warpcrafter


It doesn't benefit those who are trying to implement global governance much to have a slow death. It seems a quick fatal blow is more likely.

Economy kept on life support while Global Governance is organized

Originally posted by unityemissions

...

I think that massive inflation and an eventual collapse of our economy is a done deal. I'm just trying to get a feel for what comes when the USD becomes useless. Will we simply go to another currency and continue on, or does the end of USD mean the end of the U.S?

Thoughts?

[edit on 23-3-2010 by unityemissions]

I've heard some speak of war time type quotas. Where, you will be given stamps for goods and services. You'll still have your USD for private transactions, but for exchange of durables, you'll need an approved stamp to get them.

I see this type progression, and feel it's a reality.

Although the news plasters the screen with smiling people about the gov't backed 'gravy train', I don't find myself entranced with the notion. As, consumer confidence is trance like, and lacks any type of good will.

When bad things happen to good people, there needs to be this change, and intolerance of overstepping is necessary.

reply to post by unityemissions


I don't think there will be martial law, FEMA camps, or the end of the country.

I would look at history for good examples, the Great Depression and the Weimar Republic in Germany.

In some places it will be real bad. Its already pretty bad in places like Detroit. Crime, Homlessness, and unemployment would skyrocket.

The worst thing to come out of it would be demogogues and extremism. On one side would be radical marxists and the other would be theofascists. There would be plenty of marches by them. Maybe even some riots. Manifestos would be released and scapegoats would be found.

Both of them will have to be kept out of the election process, otherwise we will have a huge mess. The rise of a charismatic demogogue is probably the greatest threat. If we have a weak and inept President, someone nothing like Roosevelt, then the chance of the demogogue rising to the top will be greatly increased. Imagine Huey Long as President.

Meanwhile the manufacturing industry will return to the US. The standard of living will drop to third world conditions, and some Americans will begin to immigrate elsewhere like Canada.

Eventually we would recover, but how really depends on who is in power and what is going on in the rest of the world. More than likely our recovery will involve a global war, hopefully we arn't the ones who start it though.

reply to post by MikeboydUS


Seems like a fair assessment, though I wouldn't rule out martial law entirely. It's standard protocol to implement martial law if the currency collapses unexpectedly. Do I think that fema camps are going to take us away..no, but I do see a fair chance of martial law coming around for a short period of time while the US govt switches to a new currency, reforms itself, and regains stability.

reply to post by unityemissions


I don't think it would be called martial law. Martial law implies a state of control by the military.

Instead I think we will see "States of emergency" that will be declared in some areas, by state and local governments. The National Guard will be activated in such cases. Federal troops will only come in as a last resort and I doubt it will be under martial law. I'm looking at the LA riots and New Orleans after Katrina as examples.

It won't affect the whole country, just areas hit real bad by unemployment, homelessness, and crime. The Rust Belt of old industrial cities from Pennsylvania to Michigan will probably be the worst area of unrest. California could get messy too. More rural and less populated states will have far less problems.

reply to post by MikeboydUS


What you need to research is the 6900 series of protocols. This is the contingency plan that will be enacted when financial collapse happens. On day two, special forces will parachute into the 12 major cities which house the federal reserve branches. On day 3, martial law is declared.

6900 series of protocols

[edit on 24-3-2010 by unityemissions]