Yellowstone: Tracking Its Little Known Earthquake Swarm History

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Well hell. Let's just get rid of the whole earthquake research field entirely since they can't seem to predict the damned things any better than that gypsy down the street can.

Public safety is not the only function of the YVO. We have a lot to learn about the science of volcanoes and earthquakes. YVO teaches us a lot, even when a disaster is not imminent.

The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) was created as a partnership among the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and University of Utah to strengthen the long-term monitoring of volcanic and earthquake unrest in the Yellowstone National Park region. Yellowstone is the site of the largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features in the world and the first National Park. YVO is one of the five USGS Volcano Observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for science and public safety.

[edit on 3/23/2010 by Phage]

reply to post by Phage


Oh, what's this? Phage goes overboard, and to extremes?

Never thought I'd see the day.

But you just did. I never suggested such a thing. You did.

And despite your ludicrous suggestion, maybe there does need to be some kind of assessment on the value of what the taxpayer is getting for all this investment.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Reductio ad absurdum. Sarcastic exaggeration. You found me out.

I didn't mean it of course. My point is there is good science being done. Important science.

Just because all of the data produced is not online (and especially the data you, in particular, want) does not mean it is hidden. It sounds like you're getting a dialog going with the guys who can give you what you're looking for. Keep it up.

reply to post by Phage


Have you ever wondered why there hasn't been more of a concerted effort to develop and install more and better stressmeters? I mean like way down deep, in the most prolific faults that threaten us the most. If there is one science I wish they would pursue, it is that one.

If they can establish that a certain kind of rock can stand up to a certain amount of strain, then earthquake prediction ability, and even volcanic eruption prediction ability would increase dramatically.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Good idea.
www.usarray.org...

reply to post by Phage


No Phage. I already know about the Usarray. They are portable, above ground seismic arrays, not borehole stressmeters. Just read the FAQ at your link.

The ratio of stressmeters to seismometers is absurdly low, and only installed at select stations. They are expensive, and entail considerably more complexity in installation.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


It would be interesting to see the data, if it existed, from the 1959 Hebgen Lake event.

Great post by the way, thank you.

If I remember right there have been three big events in the last 2 million years with the largest a little more than 2 million years ago and the last big one was about 650,000 years ago, so the pattern would make it a very dangerous time now.

I would think to truly understand it, we would need a time machine to gather data over thousands of years. Still this is interesting. I wonder if the swarms were more prevalent around the 1959 quake?

I remembering studying this in a University course in about 72, but data like this did not exist. I've always had an interest as I went there often as a child and have hundreds of relatives in that general area on my Mothers side. They broke ground on many ranches around there and towards Idaho Falls.

Thanks again for your hard work. A very interesting read.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by Phage

 

Have you ever wondered why there hasn't been more of a concerted effort to develop and install more and better stressmeters? I mean like way down deep, in the most prolific faults that threaten us the most. If there is one science I wish they would pursue, it is that one.

I think I can answer that. Money. It's that simple. Still its way better than it used to be.

I can't help but wonder, if we knew a week in advance that a major eruption was imminent, what good would it do. Evacuate the whole Continent?

It's like in L.A. where they know for a fact a huge earthquake will occur near Upland any second now, what do they do, empty out L.A. and move it?

Oh, my, my, my children, now let's take it easy and go to our respective corners and think on this. Yes, YVO and UofU and USGS give us lots of information - because We demand it. Do they share all They know? of course not!! Why - first because They are uncertain because there is soooo much They don't know. AND, don't want to speculate on shaky theory. In addition, if there were to share All They know and one of Us gypsy's came up with a plausible theory, They would be - how should I state it - indignant? - years and years of study and hard work to just give up info for some other person/gypsy to come up with answers - tell me, who would get the stars and flags? While I get extremely frustrated with lack of information I can in a way understand - kinda sorta!

And, speaking of Money - when does the grant go through so instruments can be updated?

[edit on 23-3-2010 by Anmarie96]

Originally posted by Blaine91555
I wonder if the swarms were more prevalent around the 1959 quake?

First, thanks to you and all for the compliments.

I couldn't find any info on swarms prior to the 1959 quake, but in this video at about 8:25 he mentions that right prior to the quake, geysers at Yellowstone were showing a lot of activity:



And in the past week, we've had a couple of small quakes in western Montana. I was kinda wondering whether they might have something to do with the park.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

That video explains how the magma chamber under Yellowstone split off, and a branch of it is heading northwest.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I think this is like trying to predict the weather times a hundred. Too many variables, to many things to know and consider.

The seismograph gives us a peek at the underlying structure and what is happening, but what they really need is to see in real time what is going on in the interior of the planet. Then perhaps we will see reliable predictions and timely warnings.

I'd think they will be able to take a good look inside before long thanks to satellites. It should get very interesting when they cross that horizon. Lots of questions will be answered.

I was a Geology Major at first and have had an interest since childhood. However my interests were in field identification because of my lifelong collecting of mineral specimens, crystals and unique specimens. Geology is such a huge topic.

reply to post by Blaine91555


Ok, so I have a question to you and everyone:

If a volcanic, or "harmonic" tremor (same thing) is ever detected at Yellowstone, and you were the director of the YVO, what would be your next course of action?

Would you:

1) Close the park immediately

2) Stay open, but put the park on advisory

3) Not say a word, and wait to see if it subsides

reply to post by TrueAmerican


It would depend on the location - I would close the area in the park near and around the problem area and put the park on advisory.

reply to post by Phage

science is payed by politics...they are hand in hand..
wat will be the border that science overrules politics concerning the amount of money that is instake by an false alarm..
for yelly i think the actual blow of the caldera is the point when we will be informed...