posted on Jul, 27 2010 @ 02:43 PM
In a nutshell, this is what it looks like for the fall mid-term elections:
Safe Republican: Arkansas and North Dakota. Both Democratic candidates are trailing by huge margins. There is no need to spend any money on these
Likely Republican: Indiana. Former Sen Coats is running, and although he is an insider and former lobbyist, he is well liked. Again, the polls are a
little closer, but not much.
Lean Republican: Colorado, Delaware and Pennsylvania. Colorado has yet to hold its primaries, so this could change. Delaware was in safe Republican
territory but polls are tightening up. Pennsylvania shows Democrats have their work cut out for them, although Sestak is polling much better than
Specter was. These races can be called competitive, but a lot of work and get out the vote is needed to hang on to these seats. Interestingly, once
safe seat Kentucky is in this category which means it is possible for the challenger to switch it to the Democratic side. Kentucky and Missouri are
two states the Republicans have to defend to keep from turning, although polls show them in their favor still.
Toss ups: Illinois, Nevada, Washington, Florida and Ohio. Washington is on this list as a couple recent polls show the Democratic incumbent in a dead
heat with Rossi. Illinois is also a dead heat, with Kirk needing to get out the vote to turn the state. Factors not in his favor are a quick end to
the Blagojavich trial and questions on his military record (he seems to have exaggerated it more than a few times). That Nevada is competitive again
speaks volumes on who the Republicans picked to run against mega unpopular Reid. The Republicans also have to hope that Meeks and Crist split the
moderate and Democratic vote so Rubio can win. But polls are suggesting that voters are dropping Meeks to support Crist. Ohio surprisingly is quite
competitive, despite some major infighting between the Democrats on their nominee.
That means the Republicans have to win Nevada, Illinois, Washington, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Indiana, Arkansas and North Dakota while
holding on to Ohio, Florida, Kentucky and Missouri to get 50 seats in the Senate. That would mean trying to get a lean Democrat state to turn for
Lean Democrat: California and Wisconsin. I would doubt it if either of these states turned, but it is possible if there is low voter turnout and the
polling in Wisconsin is correct. Wisconsin has yet to hold its primary, so the status could change back to safe Democrat. Sen Boxer has to change her
approval ratings, although former CEOs do not have much love either.
For all the pundits saying the Senate will change over, the Republicans have their work cut out for them. But the Democrats also have plenty to do if
they want to still have 53 or 54 seats instead of 49 or 50.