What might really be happening in Washington State?

This one happened last night:

Date-Time

Monday, October 10, 2011 at 05:39:32 UTC
Sunday, October 09, 2011 at 10:39:32 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones



Location

50.606°N, 129.663°W



Depth

30.8 km (19.1 miles)



Region

VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION



Distances

158 km (98 miles) W of Port Hardy, British Columbia, Canada
201 km (124 miles) SSW of Bella Bella, British Columbia, Canada
492 km (305 miles) WNW of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
516 km (320 miles) WNW of VICTORIA, British Columbia, Canada




Location Uncertainty

horizontal +/- 28.5 km (17.7 miles); depth +/- 10.8 km (6.7 miles)



Parameters

NST=154, Nph=155, Dmin=552.1 km, Rmss=1.17 sec, Gp=173°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7



Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)



Event ID

usc00066t8

Sorry I haven't been posting as much. Between a new job, kids, football and homecoming it has been a bit busy!

Hi Tara, hi everyone,

I thought that it might be a good idea to have the latest off-coast Oregon quake logged here:

Magnitude 5.3 - OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
2011 October 13 04:13:59 UTC

Versión en Español

* Details
* Maps
* Scientific & Technical
* Tsunami

Earthquake Details

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.3
Date-Time

* Thursday, October 13, 2011 at 04:13:59 UTC
* Wednesday, October 12, 2011 at 08:13:59 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 43.440°N, 127.155°W
Depth 10.3 km (6.4 miles)
Region OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
Distances 233 km (144 miles) W of Coos Bay, Oregon
277 km (172 miles) WSW of Newport, Oregon
277 km (172 miles) NW of Brookings, Oregon
365 km (226 miles) WSW of SALEM, Oregon
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.2 km (8.2 miles); depth +/- 2.7 km (1.7 miles)
Parameters NST=391, Nph=392, Dmin=238.2 km, Rmss=1.13 sec, Gp= 79°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=D
Source

* Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc00068ex

Source: USGS

Comments: this quake was orginally posted as a 5.9. Viz this post by MoorOfNZ on the Quakewatch thread. However it soon got downgraded to a mag 5.3. TrueAmerican on the quakewatch thread had actually stated he expected this because his own study of the data indicated the original mag listed was too high. (He estimated it was a 4.9 to 5.3. You can read his post here.)

I'm also interested in the fact that this was a very shallow quake. The depth of 10.3 km is not a "default depth" (as that would typically be 10 km for this area), but one assigned after review by a seismologist.

Now, here is what interests me the most: back in early March this year, there was a series of quakes off the coast. Westcoast details them in her post on this thread here. They seemed to culminate with a mag 5.0 off the coast of Oregon on March 8, at a depth of 17.8 km. However, within short order there were two more in almost the same location -- a mag 4.4 then a 4.6 -- both of them at a depth of 10.3 km. (Details in Westcoast's post here.)

Then, in this post on March 8 I posted some details of a previous, rather similar series of quakes from that general region that occurred in June, 2008. I wrote this post to show that such events were not unknown, but at the same time, I said:

I have to comment that when I saw the first couple of quakes off the coast there this time round, I wasn't too concerned because several times before, I've seen instances of two or three quakes within a period of a few days. I started to get a bit more interested when the fourth one popped up, and then when I saw the mag 5.0 this morning (my time) I thought just like some of you did: "Uh-ohh... That's not an aftershock... They're getting bigger..."

This area now has me pretty concerned. Not because it necessarily portends anything major, but because it's an anomaly and I don't like anomalies if I can't figure out why they're anomalous.

Now to the main point I want to make: that series of quakes noted above occurred on March 8, 2011.

Anyone who reads the next few days of posts on this thread will note two things: an obvious increase in nervous tension among the posters, and also the increasing nervousness of Westcoast's dogs.

And then -- well, I think we all know what occurred on the other side of the Pacific on March 11, 2011 -- just three days after a that series of quakes off the PNW.

I'm beginning to wonder if that series of quakes was some kind of an indicator. And naturally, I am also wondering what it will mean if we get a similar series of quakes connected with this most recent event.

Granted, the March events might have been purely coincidental and unconnected, but it is interesting, to say the least. I think it might be worth doing some digging to see if there have been similar correlations in the past.

Mike

Okay, having a small amount of free time before work duties today, I did a little digging.

In the above post, I include a gif image I made that refers to a series of quakes off the coast of Oregon that began on June 14, 2008. So, I search "earthquake japan 6/2008" and found that on June 13, 2008 there was a magnitude 6.9 quake north of Sendai (in Nthn Honshu). Here is a page on USGS that gives some details.

I have to point out that in this case, the quakes off Oregon occurred just after the Nth Honshu quake, whereas the ones off Oregon in March this year came just before the huge quake off Honshu on March 11. All the same, it suggests a possible (two-way) cause-and-effect relationship.

I think we need to do more digging and look for any other cases where there were groups of quakes off the PNW (esp around OR up to WA) that occurred either just before or just after significant quakes in Japan or regions close to it. The USGS reference given above could be helpful because in the linked "poster" on that page they give details of significant Japan quakes since 1896. Here is a cropped image that shows the relevant data:


(Source: USGS, via the link given above in this post.)

Someone might wish to review this data and see if they can find any correlations with PNW quakes. The NEIC QUAKE SEARCH data base could be helpful. My time is going to be rather limited until Sunday but if no-one else takes on the task I can start the cross-checking process.

We might need to consider Kamchatka as well. That region has had some mag 8 quakes in recent years. There were at least two in the past 5 years or so if I recall correctly.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


JustMike, I love the way you think. In fact, this observation you just made kinda embodies what I love most about ATS. This is something I totally missed. It may mean absolutely nothing, it could mean a whole heck of a lot. We'll never know unless we pay attention and keep track.

Having said that...I just made a couple of posts in the past two days about: a wierd, very specific quake dream I had and how my little dog was acting like a quake was coming after quite some time of inactivity from her.

My big dog has been very on-edge the past couple of days too. So much, that my kids have made comments that there must be a big quake coming. That threw me off, because I don't say much about these things in front of them, but they have obviously picked up on it and correlated it with this behavior. I guess my point is that I am not the only one noticing it.

I will come back later tonight when I have time and do some more digging and looking into this. I think it a very interesting observation and one worth looking at/paying attention to.

On that note: How about the 6.9 up near Vancouver recently? My short-term memory sucks right now (I'm tired), but I know there was other stuff going on at the time quake-wise. I think we need to look at anything significant along the Juan De Fuca Ridge and connected faults. Also of note: no aftershocks so far for the 5.3. There should be some soon, or else a larger quake. Like...before the night is up. So heads up Washingtonians and Oregonians!!

reply to post by westcoast

Hi Tara,

thanks for the comments. I'm glad that I managed to make some sense with what I said. (Sometimes I just can't find a way to say what I really want to say ) Yes, it's certainly worth following up.

Than Vancouver Island region quake was a mag 6.4. It occurred on 9/9/2011, which for me seems ages ago now for some reason. Here's a link to the details on ESMC.( I haven't tracked down the USGS reference yet so as the EMSC is a good alternative authority I've given that one.)

As it was quite a significant even I'll do some digging, but I believe there were some pretty large aftershocks off Honshu around that time. I'll check a few threads here and some data on other sites as well.

Regarding the aftershocks -- or the lack of them -- we were discussing this over on the QuakeWatch thread. Some members were pretty concerned about there being no aftershocks; I made reference to a mag 5-range quake off nth Cal (on the Sthn plate junction, I believe, West from Fortuna) that occurred back in Nov, 2008 and which had no aftershocks. I also found references to a mag 5.9 in the same region that occurred on Feb 4, 2010 which had no aftershocks either.

When I say "no aftershocks", I mean there were none large enough to make the USGS U.S. region maps, meaning that if any occurred they must have been in the low mag 2 range at most. We'd typically expect at least the odd mag 4 after a larger 5 (as you know) but didn't get any. Not even a few mag 3s.

Sometimes they just don't occur and it's something to ponder.

Anyway I'll do some digging re the Van Island 9/9/2011 quake and see what I find.

EDIT to add: my intial search doesn't seem to show any specific correlation between events in Japan and the Van Island quake. There were a few aftershocks in Japan round that time but they were relatively small -- none of them over mag 5.3 in the week prior to 9/9/2011 and only a couple of similar ones followingt that date, until a mag 6.2 near the east coast of Honshu on Sept 15.

Considering the amount of "settling" taking place off Japan following the March 11 quake there it's hard to say if that mag 6.2 would have any connection the the Van Island 6.4 on 9/9. However -- and, paradoxically, due to the rather extraordinary nature of the March 11 Japan quake -- I think we need to dig back a lot further and obtain a much larger data set before we can draw any conclusions at all. If we can get data on all mag 5-plus events off the PNW for at least the last 30 years and compare them by date and location with events around Japan (and Kamchatka, being close by), we might get somewhere. A big task, yes, but quite doable over time.

(End of edit.)

Mike

Wierdness:

MAP 3.2 2011/10/15 06:11:29 46.410 -119.262 1.4 15 km ( 9 mi) N of Richland, WA
MAP 2.9 2011/10/14 23:29:12 46.854 -121.754 0.9 23 km ( 14 mi) ENE of Ashford, WA
MAP 3.4 2011/10/14 22:25:16 46.753 -121.946 8.5 6 km ( 3 mi) E of Ashford, WA

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I started a thread about the quakes at Rainier. I think it worth watching. This one in Richland is just odd. I know there have been some clusters there the past couple of years...but not normally that large. There was talk about a new fault there. I wonder what its capable of producing? It is very near the old Hanford nuclear site. It is no longer 'active', but there's a whole crap load of radioactive waste stored there.

Rainier thread

reply to post by westcoast

Hmmm... A possible fault near an old nuclear site where radioactive waste is stored?

Charming...

I have long wondered about the wisdom of storing dangerous waste in regions that are known to be seismically or volcanically active. It's not so much a matter of if a known fault is in the area, but if there's an unknown one -- so I can well appreciate your concerns on that score. And as some faults can remain quiet for thousands of years, we can't even go on relatively recent historical data to determine what places should be geologically stable and relatively safe.

A case in point is Athens. To stay within the T&C guidelines I'll only quote some small extracts from the source:

The 1999 Athens earthquake, registering a moment magnitude of 6.0, occurred on September 7, 1999, at 2:56:50 pm local time and lasted approximately 15 seconds. The tremor was epicentered approximately 17 km to the northwest of the city center, in a sparsely populated area between the working-class town of Acharnes and the Mount Parnitha National Park.

and further along in the same article:

Overall, 143 people lost their lives and more than 2,000 were treated for injuries in what eventually became Greece's deadliest natural disaster in almost half a century. This event took Greek seismologists by surprise as it came from a previously unknown fault, originating in an area that was for a long time considered of a particularly low seismicity.

(Bolding mine)
Source: wikipedia article on the 1999 Athens Earthquake

There are other references to support this if people want them, but speaking personally I recall reports of this event at the time and also the comments by scientists and especially how surprised they were. But consider this: Athens, a city that has been continually inhabited for thousands of years by a people who have had an advanced culture since antiquity, has a quake just over 10 miles from the city center -- and no-one knew that particular fault even existed!

If the Greeks can live in a seismically-active region for millennia and be unaware of a dangerous fault right by their capital city, how can experts in the PNW be sure they know what might be lurking in wait in their own region?

The fact is, they can't be sure and they don't know. After all, it's only been within the past two decades that scientists have begun to get an understanding of just how dangerous the CSZ is and they freely admit that there is still a lot they don't know. I know that you know this and that the general scientific community within the field also knows it, but I bet ten bucks to a bent hatpin that most of "the public" have not the slightest idea of how little is really known.

Best regards,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Huh...good points. Goes back to how they (scientists) don't really know much about CSZ. It's a lot of guess work with a bit of science.

I have been trying to keep up with Rainier...and missed some actions at helens. Check THIS out.

and HERE

You will find these stations HERE under SUG and VALT

reply to post by westcoast


Seeing the activity after that dream I had about Mt St Helens recently, really has my internal warning flags going up. I had an even more disturbing earthquake dream a couple days after it that ended with a volcano going bonkers in the distance. I sure hope it's the jalapeno chips I've been eating in the evening.

reply to post by westcoast


Hello my friend.

I just wanted to say thank you for always linking to new threads that you start. Yours are ones that I never wanna miss. And sometimes life keeps me away from ATS longer than I'd like. Dammit! LOL

Not that it means ANYTHING at all, but I just wanted to document that a normally passive and content cat that is completely freaking out today for some reason. She (4 year old "fixed") is meowing and trying to hide all over the house, in and out the backdoor, and driving me nuts atm.

reply to post by nonnez


Wierd to come here to share some info and see your post. My little dog has been doing her 'stare at the floor' thing for two days now, and very aggressive for my attention. Also....most of my chickens have stopped laying this week.

I was coming to post this image:




As I have mentioned in the past (and been accurate), whenever I see this kind of pattern, it means there will be a release on the opposite end to match the energy. Given the massive amounts of tremors all clustered to the South...I am goin to step out here and say that I think a moderate to large (4.5 to 6.0up) will occure to the North (offshore Oregon or Western Washington/offshore Western Wa/Vancouver Island) in the next 24 to 36 hrs.

reply to post by westcoast

Hi West,

thanks for posting that map. I haven't been following the PNSN very closely the past few days and that collection of events is one of the most concentrated I've seen in a while.

Will be keeping an eye on the seismos around the region via GEE. Let's see if something pops up. As you've mentioned, you've been right before in such cases so we'll see what happens this time.

Mike

reply to post by westcoast


Hi Westcoast. I've been following your threads with interest, as well as this current ETS episode. It's up to 141.1 hours, 2517 epicenters, and seems to still be going.


Today's seismos all along the coast seem to be showing a significant uptick in seismicity
Latest Seismo data-USGS Crest network
You can see the intensity building, especially at OFR BHZ UW, WISH, KEB, KMPB, KSXB and KCT.
The last time I saw similar signatures was on the 11th and 12th, right before the Mag 5.3 of the coast of Coos Bay, OR 13 Oct2011 04:13:59
I saved some screenshots of a couple stations from that day: KMPB, KSXB and KEB

Right now, the seismos don't look identical, but close. Possibly still building toward an earthquake. Or not. We have all observed the readings intensify, just to fizzle out again (which is fine--I am in no hurry to see a large, potentially damaging EQ out west, or anywhere for that matter)
As to where I expect some shaking action, I'm not sure. My gut says offshore Eureka, CA. I've been following a few stations in GEE (Cave Junction, OR, Trinity Center, CA, and Myrtle Point)-- the amplitudes of the grumbles (my favorite technical term) is currently running 2 to 3+ times normal seismicity, for those stations.
But reviewing the ETS and EQ data for the past 6 mos, I do see lots of merit to your theory of the next pressure release being at the opposite end of the CSZ.
Count me as closely watching all possibilities.....now I am off to install a new chimney cap--I need a fire--it's cold!

reply to post by Olivine


Thanks for the contribution! now I just need to figure out how to insert those small pics. Love it!


Yes, the ETS continues to be intense. the longer this goes without being answered, the more likely I think we are to see a significant quake. I was obviously wrong about the time frame a couple of days ago, but I haven't changed my mind.

My dogs continue to act strange.

just making a note that my little doggy is very scared right now. She definitely hears something that she doesn't like. We'll see if anything happens near me tonight.

reply to post by westcoast


Ummmm....looks like a whole bunch of little micro quakes going on right now on Glacier Peak. You just don't normally see this: seismo


When that expires, go HERE and select GPW

ETA: just to give you an idea, according the PNSN, the last recorded quake there was back in 2007. So if those really ARE micro quakes, it could be quite significant.

reply to post by westcoast


www.abovetopsecret.com...



Deffo some local stuff there but very small.

reply to post by PuterMan


Thank you Puterman for a wonderful break-down of it! As I thought, it looks/sounds like several local mircro quakes and some other distant smallish ones (mixed in with tree root and other local 'noise')

I am a bit concerned about it. I don't like seeing ANYTHING going on up there, simply because it is so A-typical. I mean, I know it is an active volcano and all, but in the year plus that I have been 'watching' it, I haven't seen this kind of action. I have seen some wierd stuff (started that one thread)...which we never figured out, but it wasn't clearly quake activity.

Check out a screen-shot of the latest activity....clearly, these mirco quakes are becoming not-so micro!!!!




source

reply to post by PuterMan


I've listened to the audio file. It only took 10 seconds to download on adsl2. I wasn't expecting 30 minutes worth, just the 10 minutes or so you had on here, so thank you for going to that trouble. It was very interesting. Are the metallic sounding knocks the tree root sounds? How did whoever it was work out it was tree roots?